William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
After a week of wrangling in DC between the US & Chinese trade representatives – comes the Sat announcement that the “ TRADE WAR IS ON HOLD” as both sides will work to reduce the trade deficit! As of yet, there is no firm agreement but we’re certainly headed in the right direction!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 893,680 MT (400-700) – Thur sales
Were 506,000MT (400-950)
May 18 949,000 MT Cancelled
May 18 168,000 MT Unk
May 17 132,000 MT Unk
- PLTG PROGRESS – Bean pltg – 56% (avg – 44)
Ill – 81(42) Ind – 73(38) Iowa – 58 (51)
Emerged – 26% (avg – 15)
- TRADE TALKS – China was in DC last week and the mkt was prone to trade the headlines – both good & bad! The last two were good – with Fri their announcement they were ending the anti-dumping investigation into US Sorghum imports – followed by todays (Mon) proclamations that the “trade war was on hold”!
- US DOLLAR – its unabated500 point upside run – will eventually eat into exports even though there is nothing etched in stone, it appears the “TRADE WAR” is fading away – and the mkt will revert to regular supply/demand fundamentals – including pltg & growing progress & exports! With the positive trade rhetoric Fri & Sat, the mkt managed a 20 cent gain over the last 6 trading days (1005 – 1025)!
July Corn came in with the strongest supply/demand fundamentals – featuring 2 million less acres planted, robust exports & still cheap10 year-low prices. And the political rhetoric the last few days has done nothing to dissuade the Corn Bulls. First was China’s decision to end its anti-dumping investigation into US sorghum imports & then over the W/E, “putting tariffs on hold”! Although nothing is written in stone, these remarks are a very positive indication that a TRADE WAR WILL NOT HAPPEN!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections – 1,554 (1.4-1.7) – Thur Sales – 1.114 (750-1.2)
- PLTG PROGRESS – corn pltg – 81% (avg-81)
Ill – 96(87) Ind – 88 (73) Iowa – 86(89)
Emerged – 50% (47)
- TRADE TALK – the recent rhetoric out of the US/China talks has been very positive – albeit no concrete agreement – and the mkt has performed accordingly! We don’t want a trade war, China doesn’t either & Trump doesn’t want to alienate the Farm Vote that helped him get elected in 2016 – especially in an election year
- WEATHER PREMIUM – currently, there is none but there probably should be in a year where LA NINA has already ravaged South America & the US Plains both SUPPLY & DEMAND have been squeezed in a good way for corn – with stellar exports – week after week – chipping away at the big stocks! Likewise, 2 million less acres will mean a smaller crop to be added to carry-out! It all translates to a tighter S/D scenario to a corn mkt – barely of its 10 year lows!
Sometimes, we make this mkt analysis way to complicated – afterall, “IT’S THE WEATHER STUPID!” – much akin to the famous political slogan – “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID”! The rains came along with a negative USDA Report & July Wht lost 50 cents (535-485) in a hurry! Then dry forecasts arrived & abysmal crop conditions were re-enforced by Mon’s crop ratings – leading to a 45cent rally (485-530). As well, weather worries in Australia, Canada & The Black Sea fed the rally with estimates of lower Russian production!
The dominant fundamental in the cattle mkt – since early April –has been the huge discount that June Cat holds to cash – at one time over $20! This has more than discounted a lot of bearish news coming down the pike – including increased production into the 2nd Qtr & trade disappointment with China & NAFTA! The net result has been a trading range (101-106) with solid Spring Demand & the still hefty discount offsetting anticipated large increases in production. CATTLE-ON-FEED on Friday!
What a strange trip it has been this week in livestock! Over the W/E, the key phrase was “TARIFFFSPUT ON HOLD” and June Cat reacted accordingly finishing almost limit-up on Mon. But not so much June Hogs – who closed almost $1.00 lower – as CHINA LEFT PORK TARIFFS UNTTOUCHED! But since then, the contract has recovered – possibly anticipating solid Barbeque Demand over the W/E. Two USDA Reports this week – A COLD STORAGE & A CATTLE-ON-FEED will shed some statistical light on the Meat Complex!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337