About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

JULY BEANS

The Bulls got what they wanted with the friendly May 10 USDA Report – with all global stocks coming in under estimates.  But it wasn’t enough  for the mkt –which chose to focus instead on the lack of progress of trade talks – both US/China & NAFTA!  But today’s optimism with China coming here this week- seemed to turn it around!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 688,195 MT (450-650) – Thur sales were 632,195 MT (300-600)
  • MAY 10 USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND

US Old Crop  17-18 Stocks –    .530 (.541)

New Crop 18-19 Stocks –   .415 (.535)

World Old Crop                          92.16 (89.90)

World New Crop                        86.70 (90.52)

2018 Bean Crop                         4.040 (est – 4.131)

  • PLANTING PROGRESS –

Bean Pltg is 35% complete (lw – 15, avg – 26)

Ill – 66(24)     Ind – 53(19)    Ia – 33(26)

  • TRADE FEARS – have hung over the mkt for some time now – both US/China & NAFTA – and this past week, they demonstrated just how powerful they can be – a friendly USDA Report on Thur was quickly ignored in deference to worries about US/CHINA  trade – pushing the mkt sharply lower – but then today with optimism returning off late week talks in DC the mkt rallied hard l ike a black cloud, the US/China trade issue looms over the grain complex! We don’t want it, China doesn’t want it & Trump certainly doesn’t want to alienate  the farm Vote that helped him get in.  But it may take some time to resolve it!

JULY CORN

When the USDA issued its May 10 Supply & Demand Report, traders were wowed by the World Ending Stocks at 159 MMT – almost 30 MMT under the estimates & on a 6 year low!  But the mkt opted to focus on trade jitters & not this report – prompting a 7 cent break in July Corn!  However since then, China has come to Washington DC for further talks & the mkt has recovered!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mar Inspections were 1,554,485 MMT (1.4-1.8) –

Thur sales were 785,000 MT (700-1000)

  • USDA MAY 10 REPORT

US OLD CROP  17-18  –     2.182 (2.178)

NEW CROP 18-19 –     1.682 (1.628)

WORLD OLD CROP            194.85 (195)

WORLD NEW CROP           159.15 (186)

2018 CORN CROP              14.040 (14.091)

  • PLANTING PROGRESS –

Corn Pltg is 62% done (lw – 39, avg – 63)

Ill – 90 (70)   Ind – 73(52)    Ia – 65(70)

Emerged – 28% (lw – 8, avg – 27)

  • OUTSIDE MKTS – this US Dollar has rallied over 400 points since MID-MAY – this is offset by strong crude oil which has rallied $10 (62-72) in the same period.  So the US Dollar’s action is bad for foreign demand but the crude oil move is positive for domestic demand July Corn continues to feature the best supply/demand fundamentals – with 2 million less acres, robust exports & 10year low prices.  But growing trade issues will impede its ascent – so the sooner they’re resolved, the better!

JULY WHT

Since early May, July Wht has plummeted 50 cents (540-490) off frequent rains that have alleviated drought conditions in the Winter Wheat Belt.  Even the recent WW tour – which highlighted the drought’s damage – wasn’t enough to stem the bearish tide – as it was considered “old news”! Also “piling on” was the 5/10 USDA Report – considered unfriendly!

  • US ending stocks & wht production both came in higher than estimates
  • Spring Wht is 58% in (lw – 30, avg – 67)
  • WW – gd/ex – 36% –    KS – 15     OK – 11  TX – 16
  • Rain in Australia & the Black Sea have eased crop concerns
  • Egypt recently tendered for Russian, Romanian & Ukraine wht

JUNE CAT

Coming into this week, longs were feeling pretty comfortable – with Spring Barbeque demand in full swing, June Cat sporting a $20 discount to cash & 2nd Qtr Production being pared to a 5% increase from 10%.  But the long-anticipated “jump in beef production” reared its ugly head – forcing a $6 collapse (108-102) in June Cattle Futures!

 

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337