About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 16, 2018 61 May 03, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL May. 16, 2018 31 May 14, 2018
ROUGH RICE May. 16, 2018 4 May 14, 2018
CORN May. 16, 2018 103 May 14, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT May. 16, 2018 10 May 14, 2018
SOYBEAN May. 16, 2018 68 May 14, 2018
WHEAT May. 16, 2018 16 May 14, 2018

Crop Progress
Date 13-May 6-May 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 36 20 31 31
Corn Planted 62 39 68 63
Corn Emerged 28 8 29 27
Soybeans Planted 35 15 29 26
Soybeans Emerged 10 2 6
Sorghum Planted 32 29 32 33
Rice Planted 83 68 82 80
Rice Emerged 61 44 72 64
Peanuts Planted 45 23 50 34
Sugar beets Planted 84 66 93 78
Oats Planted 72 56 89 83
Oats Emerged 48 34 70 66
Winter Wheat Headed 45 33 61 53
Spring Wheat Planted 58 30 75 67
Spring Wheat Emerged 14 4 37 36
Barley Planted 62 52 74 74
Barley Emerged 21 13 40 56

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 14 22 28 29 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 16 21 29 27 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 5 12 32 43 8

Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 15 37 37 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 15 38 37 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 8 28 50 12

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 14
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 10, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/10/2018 05/03/2018 05/11/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 168 21,340 35,357
CORN 1,554,495 1,916,461 1,420,269 34,746,261 40,772,389
FLAXSEED 0 0 488 4,745 32,076
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 12,679 15,189
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 7,668 70,728 78,712 4,581,229 4,485,234
SOYBEANS 688,195 535,210 285,013 44,741,238 50,155,283
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 404,180 332,086 695,016 22,653,253 25,753,789
Total 2,654,538 2,854,485 2,479,666 106,760,745 121,249,317
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on forecasts for some very beneficial rains in the Black Sea growing areas and also cheap world prices. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest, but important growing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia have been dry. Some beneficial rains are in the forecast for Ukraine. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this weekend. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. Western sections of the central and southern Great Plains could see some important rains. USDA showed that fieldwork has caught up in many areas in the past week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat moved ahead, and should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. There will be some rains and the overall pace could remain behind normal. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, and US prices are currently above the competition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers again on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 485, 455, and 465 July, with resistance at 499, 501, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 504, 496, and 495 July, with resistance at 516, 530, and 538 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 594 July. Support is at 600, 593, and 591 July, and resistance is at 608, 617, and 620 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in overnight trading but gave back all the gains and then some to close lower. Futures held the support zone at 1250, but that is about the only good news for the Bulls after the close. After the close, USDA showed good planting progress, but slow emergence. Sources in Arkansas say that planting has been active on warmer weather and that crops are finally starting to emerge. Some producers switched to Soybeans for some of the area due to Price and the bad weather. Planting is also about done along the Gulf Coast. It remains very dry in Texas and producers are having to flush crops more than normal. There are worries that are starting to be Heard about yield potential for the state. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers and storms off and on all week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1222 July. Support is at 1260, 1252, and 1247 July, with resistance at 1272, 1281, and 1289 July.

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Increase on Demand From the Philippines — Market Talk
0416 GMT – Thai rice export prices increased 1% primarily due to demand for white rice from the Philippines, says the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA notes that along with buying 120,000 metric tons of Thai rice, they also purchased rice from Vietnam. Thai rice prices have remained supported by export demand, with the USDA reporting that exports for the first four months of 2018, are up nearly 12% on year. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed unchanged to lower. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continues with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. USDA cut the Brazil production estimate last week, and there are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. None is currently in the forecast. It is hard to rally the market at this time of year as the crop is getting planted in a timely way and amid generally good conditions. USDA showed planting progress above trade expectations last night. Strong planting progress was possible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week to keep the pace slower than some in the trade might expect. The most affected areas right now by planting delays are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 392 and 384 July. Support is at 393, 389, and 388 July, and resistance is at 399, 402, and 405 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 231, 230, and 225 July, and resistance is at 239, 242, and 244 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday, but Soybean Oil was slightly lower. The US and China will enter into more talks this week to try to resolve the trade dispute, and there are ideas that some agreements are possible. China will return to Washington early this week to negotiate a new deal, but the move in Washington to ease sanctions on ZTE have helped tensions ease and there is talk that Sorghum imports will once again flow. No mention is made of soybeans yet, but ideas are that Soybeans can flow to China as well. The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in parts of the southern Midwest are planting Soybeans, and the planting pace last week was above trade expectations. Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north, but progress should remain slow due to big rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans mixed to down with objectives of 993, 992, and 970 July. Support is at 1011, 1002, and 994 July, and resistance is at 1023, 1026, and 1028 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 378.00, 377.00, and 374.00 July, and resistance is at 392.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3070, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3140, 3170, and 3210 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed at the close after trading higher much of the day. The market had tried to rally with Chicago, but fell as Soybean oil fell late. New crop months have held firmer than old crop months amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen. Charts show that trends are in a big trading range. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher in reaction to Ringgit weakness and lower than expected stocks. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News: SGs said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 550,961 tons, from 638,293 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 536.00, 537.00, and 53\9.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2390, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 August.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : April
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 May
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 2.5%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, Down 5.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.24 mil tonnes, Down 3.4%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.56 mil tonnes, Down 0.6%
Exports – 1.54 mil tonnes, Down 1.9%
Ending Stocks – 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 6.5%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 17.2%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.32 mil tonnes, Down 6.2%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation through the week, but mostly the first half of the week, Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 54 July 152 July 55 July 48 July 27-Jul
June 50 July 52 July 44 July
July 55 September 55 July 48 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 82 July plus 7 July 100 September August
July 90 July plus 4 July 95 September
August 108 August plus 5 August 95 December October
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 14
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.21 dn 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 543.70 dn 0.60
2 Can 530.70 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 577.20 dn 0.10
2 Can 564.20 dn 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 625.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 517.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,440 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 227 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9540)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,682 lots, or 4.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,704 3,704 3,696 3,703 3,621 3,715 94 28 0
Jul-18 3,734 3,734 3,655 3,683 3,760 3,685 -75 30 406
Sep-18 3,758 3,784 3,719 3,728 3,770 3,749 -21 115,714 174,794
Nov-18 – – – 3,836 3,836 3,836 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,831 3,855 3,798 3,807 3,843 3,825 -18 5,664 13,884
Mar-19 – – – 3,872 3,872 3,872 0 0 2
May-19 3,850 3,867 3,821 3,835 3,867 3,842 -25 154 768
Jul-19 3,839 3,839 3,839 3,839 3,841 3,839 -2 2 6
Sep-19 3,905 3,922 3,890 3,890 3,920 3,902 -18 90 132
Corn
Turnover: 305,450 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 1,709 1,710 1,709 -1 0 0
Jul-18 1,753 1,755 1,750 1,754 1,752 1,752 0 37,960 203,696
Sep-18 1,762 1,767 1,757 1,767 1,762 1,762 0 222,558 788,328
Nov-18 1,787 1,791 1,783 1,791 1,786 1,785 -1 100 1,496
Jan-19 1,815 1,818 1,804 1,817 1,813 1,811 -2 44,240 246,852
Mar-19 1,824 1,831 1,815 1,831 1,821 1,825 4 592 2,134
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,971,734 lots, or 60.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 3,096 2,961 3,096 135 422 0
Jul-18 2,972 3,004 2,964 2,970 3,006 2,979 -27 147,606 165,994
Aug-18 3,029 3,055 3,029 3,055 3,066 3,040 -26 6 658
Sep-18 3,032 3,065 3,022 3,028 3,057 3,041 -16 1,451,284 2,985,440
Nov-18 3,070 3,083 3,049 3,050 3,088 3,064 -24 480 5,238
Dec-18 3,068 3,083 3,055 3,055 3,083 3,066 -17 24 436
Jan-19 3,084 3,114 3,059 3,064 3,104 3,081 -23 371,090 1,138,636
Mar-19 3,013 3,050 3,002 3,005 3,048 3,022 -26 822 5,378
Palm Oil
Turnover: 279,696 lots, or 14.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 4,916 4,916 4,916 0 0 0
Jun-18 5,338 5,358 5,018 5,018 5,214 5,264 50 266 22
Jul-18 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,202 5,150 -52 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,068 5,118 5,068 -50 0 32
Sep-18 5,076 5,104 5,066 5,074 5,086 5,084 -2 258,780 535,784
Oct-18 5,130 5,130 5,100 5,100 5,126 5,114 -12 8 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,088 5,088 5,088 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,102 5,130 5,090 5,100 5,106 5,108 2 20,632 105,040
Feb-19 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,248 5,250 2 8 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 370,752 lots, or 21.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 5,544 5,638 5,544 -94 200 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,728 5,728 5,728 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,826 5,826 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,782 5,812 5,748 5,766 5,808 5,784 -24 323,488 927,860
Nov-18 – – – 5,882 5,882 5,882 0 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 5,950 5,974 5,950 -24 0 22
Jan-19 5,940 5,956 5,894 5,914 5,948 5,926 -22 47,060 197,472
Mar-19 6,084 6,084 6,074 6,074 6,078 6,078 0 4 68
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322