About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower for the week after testing previous highs on the weekly charts near 8800. Further weakness now could mean that the market has made an important top. It is still a weather market due to the poor weather in Texas and on there are still ideas of tight available supplies. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed strong volumes last week. Chart trends are mixed on daily charts and on weekly charts. New crop planting has been slow, but not unusually slow when compared to last year and the five-year average. The weather in the western Great Plains is still mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks, and producers in the western Great Plains are likely to wait for better rains before planting more Cotton. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out. The overall planting pace is likely to remain slow. The USDA reports showed that production might not increase even if the area is increased. However, the supply and demand estimates implied that there will be more than enough Cotton for buyers to choose from.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get big rains, mostly in the southeast, this week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 80.30 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 74,506 bales, from 73,464 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 15 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 214 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8400, 8350, and 8330 July, with resistance of 8600, 8700, and 8750 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 08, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 356,160
: Positions :
: 117,102 13,409 66,522 62,000 258,897 89,887 5,294 335,511 344,122: 20,649 12,039
: Changes from: May 1, 2018 (Change in open interest: 25,479) :
: 9,583 -1,847 7,918 3,714 18,762 1,783 2 22,997 24,835: 2,481 644
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.9 3.8 18.7 17.4 72.7 25.2 1.5 94.2 96.6: 5.8 3.4
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 166 50 93 58 78 31 13 297 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher as the rally continued. Funds and other speculators have been the best buyers, and producers here and in Brazil have not been selling that much. FCOJ is in a weather market as dry conditions are reported in Florida and in production areas of Brazil. The weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some areas of Florida. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some rains were reported over the weekend. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing marble sized to golf ball sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Generally good conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms his weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend. There have been no deliveries so far in New York against May contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 171.00 and 177.00 July. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 157.00 July, with resistance at 170.00, 173.00, and 176.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – May 14
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 5/5/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/5/2018 5/6/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 241.52 200.48 20.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.22 8.07 -10.6%
Total 248.74 208.55 19.3%
Pack
Bulk 3.82 5.83 -34.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.28 1.54 -16.7%
Total Pack 5.10 7.37 -30.8%
Reprocessed -2.88 -3.59 -19.6%
Pack from Fruit 2.22 3.79 -41.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 -0.04 -59.3%
Imports – Foreign 13.30 7.01 89.7%
Domestic Receipts 0.03 0.06 -47.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.55 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 255.77 210.31 21.6%
Retail/Institutional 8.50 9.61 -11.6%
Total 264.27 219.92 20.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.71 4.69 -20.9%
Exports 0.51 0.60 -15.2%
Total (Bulk) 4.22 5.30 -20.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.46 1.59 -8.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.46 1.59 -8.3%
Total Movement 5.68 6.89 -17.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 251.55 205.01 22.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.04 8.02 -12.3%
Ending Inventory 258.58 213.03 21.4%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
5-May-18 6-May-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 81.97 126.14 -35.0%
Retail/Institutional 39.45 45.25 -12.8%
Total Pack 121.43 171.38 -29.2%
Reprocessed -83.06 -104.04 -20.2%
Pack from Fruit 38.37 67.35 -43.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.61 -3.31 -81.5%
Imports – Foreign 199.95 159.71 25.2%
Domestic Receipts 7.39 2.88 156.6%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.39 0.73 -46.5%
from Non-Reporting Entity 1.00 2.56 -60.9%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.47 0.39 19.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 393.75 397.30 -0.9%
Retail/Institutional 46.65 52.03 -10.4%
Total 440.39 449.34 -2.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 132.25 139.60 -5.3%
Domestic 9.95 52.69 -81.1%
Exports 142.20 192.29 -26.0%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 39.61 44.01 -10.0%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 39.61 44.01 -10.0%
Total Movement 181.81 236.30 -23.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 251.55 205.01 22.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.04 8.02 -12.3%
Ending Inventory 258.58 213.03 21.4%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 8, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,900 :
: Positions :
: 6,398 11,427 1,241 0 0 2,939 392 112 578 782 1,722 :
: Changes from: May 1, 2018 :
: -789 1,441 -109 0 0 814 -1,023 -5 -47 -7 -17 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 40.2 71.9 7.8 0.0 0.0 18.5 2.5 0.7 3.6 4.9 10.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 17 15 5 0 0 12 5 . 9 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Orange Juice Rises on Tight Brazilian Forecast — Market Talk
1521 ET – Dry, hot weather in October in Brazil is weighing on this year’s orange crop. Brazil’s Fundecitrus releases its forecast for the 2018/2019 season at 288 million boxes, a 28% drop, a record decline for any given year given last year’s robust crop. The firm estimates that 17% will drop from trees before it is ripe given the dry weather and increased prevalence of an incurable disease called citrus greening. That disease has already decimated Florida’s orange crop which is at its lowest level since the 1940s.

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York were lower for the week as strong commercial buying started to fade in anticipation of the Brazil harvest that is about to get started. Ideas are that about 55 million bags of Coffee will be harvested. The weather is dry in Arabica areas, but there have been some showers in Conillon areas. London was lower as well. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.999 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 111.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that there were 11 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 251 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 111.00 July. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 July, and resistance is at 121.00, 124.00 and 126.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1670 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1810, and 1840 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 08, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 287,382
: Positions :
: 42,783 84,568 77,523 106,173 107,586 44,831 8,941 271,309 278,617: 16,073 8,765
: Changes from: May 1, 2018 (Change in open interest: -14,194) :
: -5,470 -9,171 -2,142 -5,091 -213 -2,201 -2,452 -14,905 -13,977: 711 -218
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 29.4 27.0 36.9 37.4 15.6 3.1 94.4 97.0: 5.6 3.0
: Total Traders: 535 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 177 160 166 141 123 26 16 427 396:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/08/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
115,097 65,397 62,903 3,824 2,022 3,090
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.8% 54.7% 3.3% 1.8% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 56 50 13 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,012 22,816 6,913 2,126 3,922 9,300
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.5% 19.8% 6.0% 1.8% 3.4% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 25 15 12 9 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,435 4,130
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 3.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in range trading. The fundamentals still suggest that lower prices are still coming as analysts remain focused on big world production. There is still big supplies available to the market. Plenty of Sugar will most likely be around, and many analysts support that idea by calling for big production surpluses for this and next year. Reports in the first part of last week that the Brazil season was off to a big start caused the last round of selling interest, and ideas that the market was oversold has caused the recent recovery. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1070 and 1010 July. Support is at 1100, 1080, and 1050 July, and resistance is at 1160, 1190, and 1200 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 318.00, 316.00, and 311.00 August, and resistance is at 328.00, 332.00, and 336.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 08, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,140,445
: Positions :
: 168,670 321,557 267,172 367,243 449,139 252,244 19,927 1,055,329 1,057,795: 85,117 82,650
: Changes from: May 1, 2018 (Change in open interest: 29,930) :
: 1,819 -6,081 16,623 11,576 20,070 -3,768 -1,214 26,250 29,398: 3,680 532
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 28.2 23.4 32.2 39.4 22.1 1.7 92.5 92.8: 7.5 7.2
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 94 99 78 72 23 13 231 229:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/08/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,559 33,029 61,787 21,956 1,370 1,581
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 33.5% 62.7% 22.3% 1.4% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 45 58 14 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,554 19,645 6,319 5,726 793 2,501
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.9% 19.9% 6.4% 5.8% 0.8% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 24 11 9 6 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,894 4,563
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 4.6%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were mixed. Trends in New York are sideways for now, but it still looks like the market could be making a top. London could be forming a top now as well. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in all countries. Yield estimates imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Certified stocks are increasing in the US as US futures have been so much stronger than London futures.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.292 million bags. ICE said that 6 delivery notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 191 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2770, 2730, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2860, 2900, and 2920 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1850, and 1810 July, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 08, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 373,854
: Positions :
: 105,620 57,561 102,411 100,712 185,324 49,316 17,857 358,058 363,152: 15,796 10,702
: Changes from: May 1, 2018 (Change in open interest: -8,108) :
: -767 -34 -4,428 -1,207 -1,952 -1,551 -950 -7,953 -7,364: -154 -744
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.3 15.4 27.4 26.9 49.6 13.2 4.8 95.8 97.1: 4.2 2.9
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 78 79 40 43 24 10 217 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/08/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
357,283 176,450 238,030 13,826 20,202 28,849
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.4% 66.6% 3.9% 5.7% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 53 50 16 10 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
65,125 4,437 30,587 4,405 117 31,914
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.2% 1.2% 8.6% 1.2% 0.0% 8.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 8 17 9 8 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,127 3,147
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 0.9%

DJ No Break Between Mid, Main Cocoa Harvest in Southwest Nigeria -Traders
By Obafemi Oredein
IBADAN, Nigeria–There will be no break between the harvest of the midcrop and the 2018-19 season’s main crop cocoa in southwestern Nigeria, officials and farmers said Wednesday.
“The current midcrop harvest will run into the harvest of the main crop this year,” said Adio Akinyele, a farmer in Ibadan, capital of southwest Oyo state. “The usual break will not occur due to good rainfall that is boosting the development of next season’s main cocoa.”
Harvesting of the midcrop began in the southwest cocoa region in March. It normally ends in July or August, while the harvest of the main crop usually starts in September or October and ends in January or February, Mr. Akinyele said.
“New leaves, flowers and cherelles–tiny cocoa pods–are now on cocoa trees in preparation for the 2018-19 main crop cocoa,” said Mr. Akinyele.
Sayina Riman, president of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria said the country’s main crop will start at least one month ahead of schedule due to the current boon of wet weather in the country’s south, where all the country’s cocoa is cultivated.
He added that the main crop harvest usually starts in September but “if the rain keeps up, we will see early main crop harvest in July or August.”

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322