About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL May. 14, 2018 45 May 02, 2018
ROUGH RICE May. 14, 2018 30 May 10, 2018
CORN May. 14, 2018 33 May 04, 2018
OATS May. 14, 2018 5 May 10, 2018
SOYBEAN May. 14, 2018 68 May 09, 2018
WHEAT May. 14, 2018 41 May 10, 2018

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA 2017
Corn 14,040 14,091 13,921-14,604 14,604
Soybean 4,280 4,311 4,248-4,430 4,392
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2017-18 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,182 2,178 2,132-2,208 2,182
Soybeans 530 541 490-565 550
Wheat 1,070 1,067 941-1,090 1,064
2018-19 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 1,682 1,631 1,467-1,907
Soybeans 415 549 336-715
Wheat 955 923 780-1,005
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 194.9 195.2 192.2-198.0 197.8
Soybeans 92.2 90.0 88.5-91.0 90.8
Wheat 270.5 271.3 268.5-273.4 271.2
2018-19 Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 159.2 182.0 148.7-192.5
Soybeans 86.7 91.1 75.5-97.0
Wheat 264.3 267.7 260.0-278.7
***
2018-19 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average Range USDA 2017-18
Estimate
All Wheat 1,821 1,757 1,612-1,832 1,741
All Winter 1,192 1,180 1,062-1,304 1,269
Hard Red Winter 647 644 540-797 750
Soft Red Winter 315 306 218-330 292
White Winter 229 230 201-260 227
***
2017-18 Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 87.0 88.2 83.9-91.0 92.0
Soybeans 117.0 116.6 115.0-119.0 115.0
2017-18 Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 33.0 32.1 31.0-33.0 33.0
Soybeans 39.0 38.6 37.0-40.0 40.0

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Wheat By Class – May 10
Wheat Production by Class: United States, 2017
and Forecasted May 1, 2018
(Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data
including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year
season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States
that do not have survey or administrative data available.)
=========================================================================
Crop 2017 2018
=========================================================================
1,000 bushels
Winter
Hard Red 750,332 647,028
Soft Red 292,156 315,194
Hard White 23,726 21,212
Soft White 203,223 208,108
Spring
Hard Red 385,005
Hard White 8,727
Soft White 22,504
Durum 54,909
Total 1,740,582
=========================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – May 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18-19 17-18 16-17 : 18-19 17-18 16-17 18-19 17-18 16-17
Soybeans 415 530 302 :161.82 151.26 147.54 354.54 336.70 350.34
Brazil na na : 72.30 73.30 63.14 117.00 117.00 114.10
Argentina na na : 8.00 4.20 7.03 56.00 39.00 57.80
China na na : 0.15 0.15 0.11 14.10 14.20 12.90
Soyoil 1,836 1,896 1,711 : 10.96 10.66 11.26 58.35 55.76 53.79
Corn 1,682 2,182 2,293 :158.02 151.10 159.68 1,056.07 1,036.66 1,078.31
China na na : 0.05 0.05 0.08 225.00 215.89 219.55
Argentina na na : 27.00 25.00 25.99 41.00 33.00 41.00
S. Africa na na : 2.20 2.10 2.20 14.00 13.50 17.55
Cotton(a) 5.20 4.70 2.75 : 41.12 39.38 37.38 121.19 122.43 106.66
All Wheat 955 1,070 1,181 :188.43 182.05 183.28 747.76 758.38 750.49
China na na : 1.20 1.00 0.75 129.00 129.77 128.85
EU 27 na na : 29.00 24.00 27.32 150.40 151.58 145.37
Canada na na : 23.50 23.00 20.16 32.50 30.00 32.14
Argentina na na : 14.20 12.80 13.83 19.50 18.00 18.40
Australia na na : 17.00 15.00 22.64 24.00 21.50 30.36
Russia na na : 36.50 39.50 27.81 72.00 84.99 72.53
Ukraine na na : 17.00 17.20 18.11 26.50 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 27 29 33 : na na na
Barley 47 65 106 : na na na
Oats 26 21 50 : na na na
Rice 40.5 34.3 46.0 : 49.30 48.41 47.24 489.50 488.23 486.67

Alerts History
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 232.60 MLN TNS VS 229.53 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 237.67 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 116.99 MLN TNS VS 114.96 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 114.08 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 89.20 MLN TNS VS 88.61 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 97.84 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 62.94 MLN TNS VS 63.01 MLN TNS IN APRIL PREVIEW AND 67.38 TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 AVERAGE CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,359 KG/HA VS 5,336 KG/HA IN APRIL VIEW AND 5,562 KG/HA LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 AVERAGE SOY YIELDS SEEN AT 3,333 KG/HA VS 3,276 KG/HA IN APRIL VIEW AND 3,364 KG/HA LAST SEASON – CONAB

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of March 31, 2018 – StatsCan – May 11
WINNIPEG, May 11 (CNS Canada – The following is the
Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions
report.
Figures are as of March 31, 2018, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31 Mar. 31
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
Barley 3,044 4,243 355 317 3,399 4,560
Canola 7,513 6,357 1,564 1,577 9,077 7,934
Corn 6,666 5,595 2,083 2,795 8,749 8,390
Flaxseed 261 341 66 76 327 417
Lentils 1,362 965 168 170 1,530 1,135
Oats 1,884 1,547 213 203 2,097 1,750
Dry peas 1,553 1,257 358 438 1,911 1,695
All rye 198 223 34 24 232 247
Soybeans 1,534 970 1,094 925 2,628 1,895
All wheat* 12,516 12,679 3,876 4,372 16,392 17,051
Durum wheat 2,750 3,225 669 853 3,419 4,078
*All wheat includes durum, spring and winter wheat
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower as USDA showed slightly higher than expected production estimates for US Wheat. Estimates were slightly higher for Winter Wheat and higher for Spring Wheat. Ending stocks were little changed for the current crop year, but above expectations for the next crop year that gets underway next month. World data showed reduced ending stocks expectations. The market is also seeing selling pressure on forecasts for some very beneficial rains in the Black Sea growing areas and also cheap world prices. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest. USDA showed that the Great Plains remains mostly a disaster area. Heading progress has been slow. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this week. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some additional and significant fieldwork in Spring Wheat areas. The market has also been concerned about warm and dry weather in Ukraine and southern Russia. There had been talk of the potential for significant yield losses if rains did not appear in the short-term. However, rains were seen over the weekend and are in the forecast for this week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders as the export sales report was very poor.. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 505 and 482 July. Support is at 500, 494, and 485 July, with resistance at 510, 520, and 524 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 510 July. Support is at 521, 516, and 504 July, with resistance at 538, 548, and 552 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 607 and 594 July. Support is at 606, 600, and 593 July, and resistance is at 617, 620, and 627 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA increased imports for the current crop year and added these imports to ending stocks. It also showed increased production for the coming crop. Domestic and export demand was increased, but not as much as production, so ending stocks went higher. The overall feel for the report was that there will be enough Rice for the market next year and a return to more normal supply and demand considerations for the coming year. Futures lost some buying interest in response to the estimates. Trends are mixed to down for the short-term. Farmers are mostly done planting along the Gulf Coast. It is warmer now farther to the north in Arkansas, and significant planting progress is being made. Emergence has been slow, but should start to catch up this week. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1222 July. Support is at 1250, 1243, and 1235 July, with resistance at 1260, 1265, and 1272 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower in sympathy with weakness in Wheat and Soybeans as the weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue. USDA cut the Brazil production estimate, but not as much as some in the trade had hoped. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. None is currently in the forecast. The US data was considered mixed for prices. Production was at or below trade expectations, but ending stocks were above the average trade guess as USDA trimmed its demand outlooks for the current crop and the next crop. World ending stocks estimates were in line with trade estimates for the current year, but much below trade estimates for next year as China and others are expected to reduce domestic supplies in storage The price reaction was disappointing, but it is hard to rally the market at this time of year as the crop is getting planted in a timely  way and amid generally good conditions. Strong planting progress was possible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week to keep the pace slower than some in the trade might expect.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 399, 396, and 393 July, and resistance is at 407, 409, and 412 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 246 and 251 July. Support is at 239, 236, and 233 July, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 252 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday, but Soybean Meal was lower. CONAB in Brazil increased its Soybeans production estimate, but many private analysts had already pegged production near 117 million tons, so the data was considered part of the price. The USDA reports showed increased domestic demand and lower ending stocks for this year. USDA used its standard metrics and did not make any adjustments for the potential of lost demand with China in the data for next year, so ending stocks levels were lower than anticipated by the trade. World ending stocks estimates were a little higher than trade expectations for the current year, but below trade expectations for the next crop year. The US and China will enter into more talks next week to try to resolve the trade dispute. China will return to Washington early next week to negotiate a new deal, but the sides have a long way to go before any complete agreement is reached. The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in parts of the southern Midwest are about done planting Corn and are planting Soybeans. Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north as better weather has finally arrived.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans mixed. Support is at 1010, 999, and 995 July, and resistance is at 1028, 1031, and 1034 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 384.00, 381.00, and 377.00 July, and resistance is at 392.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3050, 3000, and 2970 July, with resistance at 3120, 3140, and 3170 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in response to the USDA reports showing smaller than expected ending stocks estimates for US and world Soybeans. A stronger Canadian Dollar was negative for prices. New crop months have held firm amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen. Charts show that trends are up, but prices are also in a big trading range. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was mixed in quiet holiday trading. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 534.00, 535.00, and 537.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2500 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation through the end of the week, Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 57 July 152 July 45 July 27-Jul
June 53 July 52 July 44 July
July 53 September 52 July 48 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June plus 5 July 120 September August
July 113 July plus 5 July 100 September
August plus 5 August 95 December October
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 518.31 up 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 545.20 up 2.80
2 Can 532.20 up 2.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 573.20 up 2.80
2 Can 560.20 up 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,254 lots, or 4.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,660 3,660 3,652 3,652 3,660 3,653 -7 404 1,718
Jul-18 – – – 3,710 3,717 3,710 -7 0 406
Sep-18 3,786 3,794 3,752 3,759 3,785 3,770 -15 105,662 176,772
Nov-18 – – – 3,834 3,871 3,834 -37 0 0
Jan-19 3,865 3,869 3,829 3,833 3,862 3,843 -19 4,726 13,820
Mar-19 – – – 3,909 3,909 3,909 0 0 2
May-19 3,911 3,912 3,848 3,858 3,905 3,868 -37 298 736
Jul-19 – – – 3,908 3,930 3,908 -22 0 8
Sep-19 3,960 3,960 3,928 3,930 3,973 3,944 -29 164 136
Corn
Turnover: 203,784 lots, or 3.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,713 1,713 1,711 1,711 1,712 1,711 -1 120 2,476
Jul-18 1,750 1,750 1,743 1,747 1,747 1,746 -1 47,442 220,224
Sep-18 1,752 1,755 1,748 1,754 1,753 1,751 -2 137,598 788,706
Nov-18 1,768 1,769 1,764 1,768 1,771 1,767 -4 166 1,092
Jan-19 1,797 1,797 1,792 1,796 1,797 1,794 -3 18,438 221,012
Mar-19 1,804 1,804 1,802 1,803 1,804 1,802 -2 20 1,772
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,712,058 lots, or 52.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 2,988 2,999 2,988 2,999 3,001 2,991 -10 6 3,008
Jul-18 3,046 3,052 3,011 3,014 3,044 3,036 -8 271,114 167,086
Aug-18 – – – 3,098 3,098 3,098 0 0 626
Sep-18 3,114 3,118 3,068 3,074 3,104 3,088 -16 1,199,272 3,007,016
Nov-18 3,136 3,136 3,093 3,100 3,131 3,108 -23 504 5,232
Dec-18 3,148 3,148 3,106 3,106 3,140 3,117 -23 10 434
Jan-19 3,161 3,166 3,117 3,120 3,155 3,137 -18 240,228 1,125,552
Mar-19 3,096 3,099 3,059 3,061 3,092 3,072 -20 924 5,432
Palm Oil
Turnover: 263,808 lots, or 13.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 4,958 4,982 4,946 4,982 4,700 4,964 264 68 6,614
Jun-18 – – – 5,214 5,214 5,214 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,252 5,002 5,252 250 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,316 5,064 5,316 252 0 34
Sep-18 5,090 5,108 5,070 5,096 5,078 5,092 14 239,664 520,016
Oct-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,088 5,088 5,088 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,124 5,134 5,098 5,116 5,104 5,116 12 24,066 104,400
Feb-19 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 5,248 5,250 5,248 5,250 5,176 5,248 72 10 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 345,764 lots, or 20.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,644 5,656 5,632 5,656 5,632 5,638 6 406 5,400
Jul-18 – – – 5,728 5,728 5,728 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,826 5,826 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,846 5,860 5,810 5,830 5,838 5,836 -2 297,032 927,918
Nov-18 – – – 5,882 5,882 5,882 0 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 5,890 5,892 5,890 -2 0 22
Jan-19 5,990 6,004 5,954 5,966 5,980 5,978 -2 48,282 186,626
Mar-19 6,110 6,112 6,100 6,100 6,050 6,108 58 44 68
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322