About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018-19 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2018-19 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2017-18
All Wheat 1,757 1,612-1,832 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,180 1,062-1,304 1,269
Hard Red Winter 644 540-797 750
Soft Red Winter 306 218-330 292
White Winter 230 201-260 227
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 1,720 1,100 540 300 260
Allendale 1,813 1,183 658 322 202
DC Analysis 1,741 1,269 750 292 227
EDF Man 1,735 1,220 700 310 210
Farm Futures 1,796 1,178 643 319 216
Futures INTL 1,820 1,170 607 330 233
Hueber Report 1,786 1,304 769 300 235
INTL FCStone 1,780 1,127 578 322 227
Sid Love Consulting 1,612 1,062 550 311 201
MaxYield 1,680 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1,727 1,150 600 290 260
Price Group 1,832 1,232 661 323 248
Prime-Ag 1,750 1,175 N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien N/A 1,167 611 327 229
Vantage RM 1,771 1,276 797 218 260
Western Milling 1,750 1,127 585 321 221
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,802 1,135 610 300 225

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,091 13,921-14,604 14,604
Soybean Production 4,311 4,248-4,430 4,392
Corn Soybean
Production
Advanced Market 14,050 4,248
Agrisource 14,067 4,264
Allendale 13,921 4,279
DC Analysis 14,129 4,297
EDF Man 14,007 4,278
Hueber Report 14,126 4,330
Futures INTL 14,060 4,317
INTL FCStone 13,972 4,299
Sid Love Consultin 14,077 4,273
MaxYield 14,010 4,270
North Star 14,165 4,288
Price Group 14,050 4,265
Prime-Ag 14,087 4,332
RMC 14,604 4,392
Vantage RM 13,967 4,414
Western Milling 14,164 4,430

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2017-18 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,178 2,132-2,208 2,182
Soybeans 541 490-565 550
Wheat 1,067 941-1,090 1,064
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,631 1,467-1,907 N/A
Soybeans 549 336-715 N/A
Wheat 923 780-1,005 N/A
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,182 565 1,090 1,600 610 984
Agrisource 2,140 560 1,074 1,575 475 858
Allendale 2,179 553 1,085 1,545 512 946
DC Analysis 2,182 490 1,069 1,566 336 978
EDF Man 2,182 520 1,089 1,650 525 995
Farm Futures 2,177 528 1,082 1,776 524 910
Futures INTL 2,192 555 1,061 1,907 521 947
Hueber Report 2,150 555 1,064 1,525 715 1,005
INTL FCStone 2,165 495 1,080 1,484 502 855
Sid Love Consulting 2,182 550 1,064 1,559 528 780
MaxYield 2,180 540 1,060 1,780 620 920
Northstar 2,182 530 1,070 1,547 618 810
Prime-Ag 2,182 550 1,085 1,750 600 1,000
Price Group 2,182 535 1,079 1,597 535 1,004
RJ O’Brien 2,132 559 1,080 1,765 495 948
RMC 2,175 550 1,064 1,800 550 999
US Commodities 2,192 535 1,050 1,483 462 840
Vantage RM 2,207 550 941 1,665 634 809
Western Milling 2,208 550 1,075 1,572 632 934
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,187 540 1,084 1,467 580 930

DJ May Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
2017-18 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 88.2 83.9-91.0 92.0
Soybeans 116.6 115.0-119.0 115.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 90.0 116.5
Allendale 87.5 117.0
DC Analysis 85.0 118.0
EDF Man 91.0 116.0
Farm Futures 89.0 117.0
Futures INTL 90.0 115.0
Hueber Report 90.0 115.5
INTL FCStone 83.9 117.0
MaxYield 90.0 118.0
North Star 89.0 116.0
Price Group 87.0 116.0
Prime Ag 88.0 117.0
RMC 89.0 115.0
US Commodities 89.0 119.0
Western Milling 85.0 117.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 88.0 116.0
2017-18 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 32.1 31.0-33.0 33.0
Soybeans 38.6 37.0-40.0 40.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 33.0 40.0
Allendale 33.0 39.5
DC Analysis 32.0 38.0
EDF Man 33.0 40.0
Farm Futures 33.0 38.0
Futures INTL 32.0 37.0
Hueber Report 32.0 38.0
INTL FCStone 32.0 38.5
MaxYield 32.0 39.0
North Star 32.0 38.0
Price Group 32.0 39.0
Prime Ag 32.0 39.0
RMC 32.0 39.0
US Commodities 31.0 38.0
Western Milling 31.0 38.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 32.0 39.0

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA April
Corn 195.2 192.2-198.0 197.8
Soybeans 90.0 88.5-91.0 90.8
Wheat 271.3 268.5-273.4 271.2
2018-19
Average Range
Corn 182.0 148.7-192.5
Soybeans 91.1 75.5-97.0
Wheat 267.7 260.0-278.7
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 196.0 90.2 N/A 178.0 96.0 N/A
Allendale 195.2 89.1 271.9 175.2 91.1 278.7
EDF Man 198.0 90.0 272.0 185.0 90.0 265.0
Farm Futures 194.5 89.3 272.6 186.6 91.7 277.0
Futures INTL 195.0 88.5 271.0 190.0 75.5 265.0
Hueber Report 195.5 91.0 271.2 192.5 89.0 271.2
INTL FCStone 192.2 90.5 271.2 148.7 93.6 271.3
MaxYield 194.5 91.0 268.5 191.0 89.5 264.5
Northstar 193.8 89.2 271.2 174.0 97.0 260.0
US Commodities 194.4 89.1 270.0 N/A N/A N/A
Prime-Ag 197.0 91.0 272.0 190.0 94.0 260.0
RMC 196.8 90.8 270.7 N/A N/A N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 195.2 89.9 273.4 190.7 94.7 263.8

Alerts History
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 232.60 MLN TNS VS 229.53 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 237.67 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 116.99 MLN TNS VS 114.96 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 114.08 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 89.20 MLN TNS VS 88.61 MLN TNS SEEN IN APRIL AND 97.84 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 62.94 MLN TNS VS 63.01 MLN TNS IN APRIL PREVIEW AND 67.38 TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 AVERAGE CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,359 KG/HA VS 5,336 KG/HA IN APRIL VIEW AND 5,562 KG/HA LAST SEASON – CONAB
• 10-May-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 AVERAGE SOY YIELDS SEEN AT 3,333 KG/HA VS 3,276 KG/HA IN APRIL VIEW AND 3,364 KG/HA LAST SEASON – CONAB

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 10
For the week ended May 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 35.2 48.2 23538.5 27948.9 2565.4 1926.1
hrw -16.8 11.5 9250.1 11779.2 632.5 405.4
srw 15.8 3.3 2520.2 2427.2 380.7 326.3
hrs 22.6 13.3 6089.0 8466.4 829.9 666.6
white 3.1 20.1 5274.9 4769.0 700.6 447.1
durum 10.5 0.0 404.4 507.1 21.8 80.8
corn 695.6 90.0 51631.6 52093.3 19002.1 2100.9
soybeans 354.3 278.3 55124.6 56999.9 11167.5 5324.7
soymeal 90.9 -0.6 10151.7 9219.5 2995.4 277.7
soyoil 45.4 1.0 844.2 861.5 281.3 1.8
upland cotton 193.1 228.6 16037.5 13537.0 5842.1 3868.4
pima cotton 3.3 0.3 588.8 594.0 125.5 44.2
sorghum 212.6 0.0 5358.1 4254.3 625.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 40.0 25.5 10.3 39.4
rice 50.4 2.5 2608.0 3187.6 456.4 11.2

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May. 11, 2018 5 May 08, 2018
CORN May. 11, 2018 112 May 04, 2018
SOYBEAN May. 11, 2018 57 May 08, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on forecasts for some very beneficial rains in the Black Sea growing areas and also cheap world prices. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest. USDA showed that the Great Plains remains mostly a disaster area. Heading progress has been slow. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this week. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. Spring Wheat planting made a lot of progress, but the pace remains well behind last year and the average. Progress in planting Spring Wheat should increase again this week with the warmer weather for the next week. The market has also been concerned about warm and dry weather in Ukraine and southern Russia. There had been talk of the potential for significant yield losses if rains did not appear in the short-term. However, rains were seen over the weekend and are in the forecast for this week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 505 and 482 July. Support is at 504, 501, and 499 July, with resistance at 520, 524, and 532 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531 and 510 July. Support is at 526, 516, and 504 July, with resistance at 548, 552, and 562 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 607 and 594 July. Support is at 608, 600, and 593 July, and resistance is at 617, 620, and 627 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday. Trends are mixed to down for the short-term. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in coming weeks as the domestic market works with very tight supplies. Farmers are mostly done planting along the Gulf Coast. It is warmer now farther to the north in Arkansas, and significant planting progress is being made. Warmer and drier weather is forecast for this week, and there is a chance for more planting progress to be made. Emergence has been slow, but should start to catch up this week. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1257 and 1222 July. Support is at 1264, 1255, and 1251 July, with resistance at 1282, 1287, and 1296 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower in sympathy with weakness in Wheat and Soybeans as the weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue. USDA showed very strong planting progress in the reports this week, but planting still is behind the pace of last year and the five-year average. Strong planting progress will be possible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week. Traders continue to worry about planting progress and reacted to news of increasing crop stress to the Winter Corn crop in Brazil. The crops there need rain in the short-term in order to fill kernels and reach maturity in good shape, but forecasts call for mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions in the main growing areas. The potential for losses is increasing and comes at the back of significant Corn production losses in Argentina earlier this year Production estimate will be updated later this week
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 413 and 436 July. Support is at 399, 396, and 393 July, and resistance is at 406, 408, and 409 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 236, 233, and 230 July, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 252 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower yesterday as the US and China entered into more talks to try to resolve the trade dispute. China will return to Washington early next week to negotiate a new deal, but the sides have a long way to go before any complete agreement is reached. The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in parts of the southern Midwest are about done planting Corn and will start to plant Soybeans. Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north this week as better weather has finally arrived. Producer’s are now slightly ahead of the normal pace as farmers try to get the crops planted and developing. Progress was fastest in the southern Midwest, but remains very slow in northwest sections.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans mixed to are down with objectives of 997 and 948 July. Support is at 1010, 999, and 995 July, and resistance is at 1028, 1031, and 1034 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 377.00 and 362.00 July. Support is at 381.00, 377.00, and 374.00 July, and resistance is at 393.00, 397.00, and 399.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3050, 3000, and 2970 July, with resistance at 3120, 3140, and 3170 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and new crop months a little lower. New crop months have held firm amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen. Charts show that trends are up, but prices are also in a big trading range. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was closed. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 534.00, 535.00, and 537.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2500 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation through the end of the week, Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 57 July 152 July 54 July 27-Jul
June 52 July 50 July 51 July
July 52 September 54 July 50 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 97 July plus 5 July 100 September August
July 107 July plus 1 July 100 September
August 130 August plus 4 August 95 December October
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 516.41 up 2.51
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 542.40 up 1.90
2 Can 529.40 up 1.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 570.40 up 1.90
2 Can 557.40 up 1.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 94,368 lots, or 3.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,660 3,660 3,660 3,660 3,670 3,660 -10 102 7,112
Jul-18 – – – 3,717 3,717 3,717 0 0 406
Sep-18 3,781 3,796 3,773 3,790 3,784 3,785 1 90,496 174,420
Nov-18 – – – 3,871 3,895 3,871 -24 0 0
Jan-19 3,859 3,873 3,849 3,865 3,865 3,862 -3 3,676 13,658
Mar-19 – – – 3,909 3,920 3,909 -11 0 2
May-19 3,910 3,910 3,898 3,900 3,914 3,905 -9 50 740
Jul-19 – – – 3,930 3,930 3,930 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,972 3,988 3,967 3,970 3,986 3,973 -13 44 134
Corn
Turnover: 311,740 lots, or 5.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,712 1,712 1,712 1,712 1,704 1,712 8 100 3,156
Jul-18 1,742 1,753 1,742 1,747 1,742 1,747 5 90,082 216,764
Sep-18 1,749 1,756 1,748 1,752 1,748 1,753 5 187,832 802,514
Nov-18 1,773 1,776 1,768 1,768 1,770 1,771 1 382 1,094
Jan-19 1,799 1,800 1,793 1,795 1,796 1,797 1 32,900 217,376
Mar-19 1,801 1,808 1,800 1,808 1,800 1,804 4 444 1,778
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,384,672 lots, or 42.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 3,001 3,001 3,001 0 0 3,012
Jul-18 3,039 3,060 3,028 3,051 3,036 3,044 8 245,298 175,134
Aug-18 3,096 3,105 3,093 3,105 3,092 3,098 6 60 626
Sep-18 3,102 3,120 3,093 3,115 3,097 3,104 7 946,712 3,028,156
Nov-18 3,125 3,143 3,121 3,142 3,125 3,131 6 314 5,222
Dec-18 3,139 3,143 3,139 3,143 3,129 3,140 11 8 442
Jan-19 3,153 3,169 3,145 3,166 3,152 3,155 3 191,432 1,120,146
Mar-19 3,093 3,104 3,086 3,097 3,089 3,092 3 848 5,292
Palm Oil
Turnover: 329,788 lots, or 16.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,940 4,700 -240 4 6,644
Jun-18 5,212 5,218 5,212 5,218 5,176 5,214 38 8 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,002 4,966 5,002 36 0 0
Aug-18 5,048 5,068 5,048 5,068 5,008 5,064 56 18 34
Sep-18 5,042 5,106 5,040 5,086 5,016 5,078 62 303,430 510,636
Oct-18 5,122 5,128 5,120 5,120 5,076 5,126 50 20 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,088 5,088 5,088 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,052 5,128 5,052 5,112 5,046 5,104 58 26,308 101,738
Feb-19 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,176 5,118 5,176 58 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 333,762 lots, or 19.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 – – – 5,632 5,610 5,632 22 0 8,234
Jul-18 5,728 5,728 5,728 5,728 5,666 5,728 62 2 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,764 5,826 62 0 10
Sep-18 5,826 5,856 5,822 5,842 5,806 5,838 32 293,144 929,600
Nov-18 – – – 5,882 5,850 5,882 32 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 5,892 5,860 5,892 32 0 22
Jan-19 5,964 5,996 5,962 5,984 5,948 5,980 32 40,608 181,742
Mar-19 6,050 6,050 6,050 6,050 6,018 6,050 32 8 26
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322