William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
In a mere 6 trading days, July Beans have plummeted 50 cents (1065-1015)! However given the stalemate lately in our trade talks, it really shouldn’t come as any big surprise! And adding to those woes is a resurgence in planting activity in recent days – coupled with a soaring dollar!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 533,667 MT (692,037) – Thur sales were 886,000 MT (300-600)
- PLANTING PROGRESS – overall, bean planting – 15% (avg – 13)
Ill – 29(12) Ind – 23 (9) Iowa – 12 (11)
- USDA MAY 10 SUPPLY & DEMAND
US New Crop Stocks – .535
Brazil Beans 116.24
Arg Beans 38.64
- TRADE JITTERS – early rumors late last week had the US & China firming up a trade agreement but that didn’t happen – even though substantive progress was made between the 2 SUPERPOWERS! And NAFA seems to drag along without resolution. So there was general disappointment in the mkt as a result
- SOARING US DOLLAR – the US June Dollar contract has rallied almost 400 points since Mid-April- not a good thing for US Exports per normal, the 800 pound gorilla is planting weather which has finally improved after the 2nd coldest April in history. So prices have succumbed to pltg pressure & also mild concern about Thursday’s USDA REPORT!
July Corn continues to validate its upside leadership in the grain complex even more evident in the current correction! While Beans, Meal & Wht are well off their recent highs, July Corn is only 8 cents down! 2 million less acres, robust exports (US corn lowest in the world) & a 10-year low price give corn the best supply/demand fundamentals – even in the face of a strong dollar!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were a whopping 1,916,461 MMT (lw – 1,482) Thur sales were 1,069,000 MMT (700-1000)
- PLTG PROGRESS – corn planting made its expected big leap with 39% done (avg – 44) & 8% emerged (avg – 14)
- Ill – 74 (58) Ind – 42 (33) Iowa – 40 (48)
- THUR USDA REPORT – 11AM – estimates are expected to reflect shrinking stocks – due to sterling export demand
US New Crop Stocks – 1.628
Arg Corn 32.27
Brazil Corn 88.86
- TRADE DISPUTES – hope sprang eternal in Bejing last week – as early reports that a US/China resolution was a done deal – turned out to be
only “wishful thinking” – but progress was made in the their talks – we continue to feel that both the US & China realize that a “trade war” benefits no one & they will proceed accordingly! Hanging over the planting & growing season is the specter of a La Nina induced dryness – that has already impacted South America & the US Great Plains! Simply put, with less acres & more exports, the corn mkt doesn’t have the “cushion” to withstand “HOT & DRY” that it has had in the past!
The recently concluded Wheat Quality Tour quantified to the trade – what has long been chronicled – that much of the Winter Wheat crop is in abysmal shape – being ravaged by the Western Plains drought! This spawned a 70 cent rally (470-540) – which has corrected in the past 2 days
- The Kansas yields could be the lowest in 30 years
- Some rains have eased crop concerns in Australia & the Black Sea
- The demand tone continues to be weak as US Wht is still not that competitive on the World Stage
- WW good/excellent – 34% (33)
KS – 14 OK – 9 TX – 16
- Spring Wht Pltg – 30% done (avg
June Cattle has been locked into a $5.00 range (102-107) since early April – being “pushed & pulled” equally by conflicting fundamentals! A still sizeable discount & strong Spring Demand are energizing the upside – while the expected big supply ahead is foretelling downside pressure! We think “D” will win out for a while!
The recent $7 break (79-72) has reduced the previously high “premium to cash” to a normal level for this time of year! Plus, US Pork Exports for March hit an all-time record high for any month at 538 MP. Finally, the Spring Barbeque Season is upon us! All these factors – together – have stabilized the mkt & should enable the June Hog contract to temporarily “stave off” the expected big production – coming right around the corner!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337