Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 6-May 29-Apr 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 20 12 20 20
Corn Planted 39 17 45 44
Corn Emerged 8 3 14 14
Soybeans Planted 15 5 13 13
Sorghum Planted 29 26 30 29
Rice Planted 68 55 76 69
Rice Emerged 44 29 64 50
Peanuts Planted 23 9 23 18
Sugar beets Planted 66 24 70 63
Oats Planted 56 39 77 74
Oats Emerged 34 29 57 54
Winter Wheat Headed 33 19 49 41
Spring Wheat Planted 30 10 51 51
Spring Wheat Emerged 4 19 22
Barley Planted 42 26 50 59
Barley Emerged 13 7 24 30
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 16 21 29 27 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 16 21 30 26 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 11 32 43 10
Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 15 38 37 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Week
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 7 28 51 12
General Comments: Cotton was higher in early trading on the poor weather in Texas and on ideas of tight available supplies. However, the market could not hold and closed lower for the day. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed moderate to strong volumes last week. Chart trends are mixed on daily charts and up on weekly charts. New crop planting is now about the same as the five-year average. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. However, the precipitation was minimal and not of much benefit to farmers. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks, and producers in the western Great Plains are likely to wait for better rains before planting more Cotton. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out. The overall planting pace is likely to remain slow.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get some rains today, then drier weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 81.78 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 73,541 bales, from 75,202 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 0 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 199 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8700, 9220, and 9940 July. Support is at 8580, 8540, and 8510 July, with resistance of 8700, 8750, and 8780 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher. Funds and other speculators have been the best buyers, and producers here and in Brazil have not been selling that much. It looks like FCOJ is in a weather market as dry conditions are reported in Florida and in production areas of Brazil. The weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some areas of Florida. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some rains were reported over the week. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Generally good conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend. There have been no deliveries so far in New York against May contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 162.00, 157.00, and 155.00 July, with resistance at 165.00, 166.00, and 170.00 July.
General Comments Futures in New York were lower again yesterday, and also London closed lower. News that the Brazilian harvest could start in the next few weeks brought ideas of bigger supplies and less need to chase higher prices for now. Funds and other speculators were net sellers and industry was a net buyer in New York. The weekly charts still show that a reversal might have happened. London daily charts show the potential for a new uptrend to be underway. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Wire reports suggest that conditions for the crop are good as the rainy season gets underway. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.990 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.24 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 10 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 232 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 111.00 July. Support is at 120.00, 117.00, and 115.00 July, and resistance is at 124.00, 126.00 and 128.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1870 July. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1770 July, and resistance is at 1840, 1860, and 1880 July.
General Comments: Futures were lower, and price action suggests that new lows for the move and new contract lows are coming. The fundamentals still suggest that lower prices are still coming. There is still a lot of talk about big world production and big supplies available to the market, but also some talk of less production for the coming year due to the low prices. Plenty of Sugar will most likely be around, and many analysts support that idea by calling for big production surpluses for this and next year. Reports in the first part of last week that the Brazil season was off to a big start caused the last round of selling interest, and ideas that the market was oversold has caused the recent recovery. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 2.0 million tons this year, but will have a surplus that is doublé that amount. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1130, 1100, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1160, 1190, and 1200 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 311.00, and 307.00 August, and resistance is at 327.00, 332.00, and 336.00 August.
General Comments Futures were sharply higher in New York, but a little lower in London. Trends are sideways for now, but it still looks like the market could be making a top. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in all countries. Yield estimates imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Certified stocks are increasing in the US as US futures have been so much stronger than London futures.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are ower today at 5.363 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 177 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2730, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1850, and 1810 July, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 July.