About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May. 07, 2018 52 Apr 18, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL May May. 07, 2018 5 Apr 27, 2018
ROUGH RICE May May. 07, 2018 9 May 02, 2018
CORN May May. 07, 2018 223 Apr 30, 2018
ETHANOL May May. 07, 2018 153 May 02, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT May May. 07, 2018 24 May 01, 2018
SOYBEAN May May. 07, 2018 60 May 01, 2018

UPDATE 5-China, U.S. reach some deals in trade row but differences still relatively big-Xinhua – Reuters News
04-May-2018 05:07:03 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
• US, China officials reach deals on some areas of row-Xinhua
• U.S., China still have “relatively big” disputes-Xinhua
• U.S., China committed to resolve dispute via dialogue-Xinhua
• U.S. delegation agrees to bring up ZTE issue with Trump-Xinhua
• U.S. delegation has already left Beijing-U.S. official
Adds comments from economists
By Sue-Lin Wong and Elias Glenn
BEIJING, May 4 (Reuters) – Top officials from China and the United States reached a consensus on some aspects of the countries’ trade row, but disagreements over other issues remain “relatively big”, according to China’s Xinhua news agency on Friday.
The two sides, though, committed to resolving their trade disputes through dialogue, state-run Xinhua reported.
And the U.S. negotiators agreed to bring up with U.S. President Donald Trump the question of a ban on U.S. companies selling goods and software to Chinese telecommunication equipment maker ZTE Corp 000063.SZ, 0763.HK after representations from the Chinese side, the report said. ZTE faced the seven-year ban after the U.S. said it failed to keep to an agreement it made after breaching U.S. sanctions.
The talks over the past two days have involved a high-level U.S. trade delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and top Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He, following months of threats and counter threats from both sides in a series of disputes over trade practices.
The U.S. team has already left Beijing and is heading back to the U.S., a U.S. official told Reuters early on Friday evening. The Americans have yet to give their account of the talks.
The trade discussions had been “candid, efficient and constructive,” Xinhua said, but gave almost no details on what the officials had agreed.
The officials exchanged opinions on resolving tariffs and non-tariffs measures, on expanding two-way investment and the protection of intellectual property, and on expanding U.S. exports to China and bilateral services trade, Xinhua reported. It gave no indication of what actions might be taken based on those exchanges.

UPDATE 1-Drought to shrink Kansas wheat crop to smallest since 1989 -tour – Reuters News
03-May-2018 02:28:14 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
Recasts, updates with quotes, details on crop quality, adds byline
By Michael Hirtzer
MANHATTAN, Kan., May 3 (Reuters) – Drought sapped yield potential for the Kansas wheat crop and likely will result in the smallest harvest in the top wheat growing state since 1989, scouts said on the final day of a annual crop tour on Thursday.
The crop shortfall could mean higher prices for wheat that would make U.S. supplies less competitive in global markets. Russia already has overtaken the United States as the top global wheat exporter.
K.C. July wheat futures KWN8 surged 2 percent after the crop tour results came out, ending up 12-1/2 cents at $5.67-3/4 per bushel, highest in 10 months.
The Wheat Quality Council estimated average yields for hard red winter wheat at 37.0 bushels per acre (bpa), below the five-year crop tour average of 40.98 bpa and the U.S. Agriculture Department’s 2017 actual Kansas yield of 48.0 bpa, reflecting stressful dry conditions in recent months.
The scouts’ average estimate of 2018 Kansas wheat production was 243.3 million bushels, down sharply from USDA’s actual production last year of 333.6 million and the smallest since 213.6 million in 1989.
“The story of this crop is that it’s late and dry,” said Dave Green, the leader of the crop tour and executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council.
“The crop has more of a chance for lower production than higher,” Green said of the production estimate.
He added that cold temperatures, which damaged some wheat plants as early as a few weeks ago, hampered crop development through the spring season when plants break winter dormancy. Many wheat fields will go through the critical grain-filling period under hot conditions during the next two months.
The tour started on Monday in Manhattan, swinging west to the town of Colby on Tuesday and then south to Wichita on Wednesday, before ending back in Manhattan. Tour scouts made a total of 644 field stops.
Rains moved through central Kansas on Wednesday, giving plants a needed dose of moisture. If more rains come and temperatures do not get too hot, yield prospects could improve significantly.
A grain buyer at a flour mill who was a scout on the tour said the tour estimate was slightly low. “The rains in the central corridor, those are going to help more than a lot of people think,” he said.

(Reporting by Michael Hirter in Manhattan, Kansas; writing by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Bill Trott)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher in reaction to the estimates from the Kansas Wheat tour and on continued forecasts for dry weather in the Great Plains. The rains in the Great Plains are still hard to find, and the Kansas Wheat Tour found very poor crops and conditions as it moved through the state this week. It estimated total production in the state at 243 million bushels. Yield estimates are 37 bushels per acre, down from previous years, but are so far not the absolute disaster that one might have expected given the extreme weather in much of the region. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this week. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. USDA showed that fieldwork is much behind normal this week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, but might staret to fade as there are reports of very dry conditions in both Ukraine and Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see precipitation in southern áreas today. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 524, 521, and 515 July, with resistance at 538, 544, and 547 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 562, 548, and 543 July, with resistance at 568, 571, and 574 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 630 and 650 July. Support is at 620, 617, and 613 July, and resistance is at 631, 637, and 643 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. The export sales report was weak and did not provide a reason to buy, but tight domestic market conditions continue to support the market overall. Farmers are not really selling Rice and apparently have little left to sell. That means that the comercial buyers might have to id higher for what remains. USDA showed that Rice is now more than half planted in the US. Areas near the Gulf Coast are almost done planting, but áreas in the Mid South have had slower planting conditions due to rains and cold weather. Trends are mixed for the short term, but still up on the weekly charts. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in coming weeks. Futures have held above major support levels at 1250 on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1287, 1281, and 1272 July, with resistance at 1313, 1320, and 1328 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as traders worried about planting progress and reacted to news of increasing crop stress to the Winter Corn crop in Brazil. The crops there need rain in the short term in order to fill kernels and reach maturity in good shape, but forecasts call for mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions in the main growing áreas. The potential for losses is increasing and comes at the back of significant Corn production losses in Argentina earlier this year. Planting progress in the US has been slow, but should get a little faster this week with warmer temperaturas. However, there is now some rain around to slow the planing progress once again. The strength in Crude Oil is thought to be driving demand for Corn for Ethanol to higher levels. Ethanol production was 1.032 million barrels per day last week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 413 and 436 July. Support is at 403, 399, and 396 July, and resistance is at 409, 412, and 415 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 233, 230, and 225 July, and resistance is at 240, 244, and 247 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower in early trading, then recovered the Wednesday losses on newswire reports that US and Chnese negotiators might have a deal made this week. There has been no oficial confirmation, but CNN and Reuters both published stories implying that the trade war tensions had been reduced and that a deal was possible. Soybean Meal was lower, but Soybean Oil was higher as some traders liquidated some spreads between the two products.. Soybeans traders continue to worry about demand as Chinese buyers are still buying in Brazil and have cancelled some purchases for the current crop from the US. US producers are planting, but could have sold some additional supplies on the recent rally. Brazil ius about done harvesting and has used rallies to get new sales on the books. The trade hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harrvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. USDA showed almost no planting progress in its reports, but progress is increasing no won the better weather. Producers have been concentrating on Corn planting, but some are also planting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1047, 1038, and 1031 July, and resistance is at 1055, 1064, and 1067 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 423.00 July. Support is at 391.00, 387.00, and 384.00 July, and resistance is at 399.00, 406.00, and 409.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3000, 2970, and 2940 July, with resistance at 3080, 3100, and 3120 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower. New crop months have held firm amid lower than expected planted área estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork imposible. Somewhat warmer and drier weather is posible this week. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was slightly higher. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released ovenight. Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 524.00 and 517.00 July. Support is at 526.00, 523.00, and 522.00 July, with resistance at 533.00, 535.00, and 537.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2320, 2290, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2390, 2430, and 2460 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitatiion today and tomorrow, then drier, Temnperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 51 July 145 July 50 May 41 July 30-Jul
June 49 July 52 July 45 July
July 49 July 52 July 46 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
June 90 July plus 5 July 98 September August
July plus 2 July 92 September September
August 135 August plus 3.5 August 85 December October
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 3
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 517.90 dn 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 543.10 dn 0.80
2 Can 530.10 dn 0.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 571.10 dn 0.80
2 Can 558.10 dn 0.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 627.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 625.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 625.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 627.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 625.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 625.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 615.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,350 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 222.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9390)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,808 lots, or 4.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,728 3,728 3,694 3,710 3,710 3,707 -3 856 9,812
Jul-18 3,770 3,797 3,730 3,730 3,753 3,748 -5 14 404
Sep-18 3,837 3,843 3,798 3,830 3,823 3,819 -4 111,758 165,152
Nov-18 – – – 3,895 3,895 3,895 0 0 0
Jan-19 3,918 3,920 3,878 3,907 3,909 3,898 -11 6,116 11,830
Mar-19 – – – 3,920 3,920 3,920 0 0 2
May-19 3,973 3,979 3,957 3,979 3,983 3,970 -13 34 372
Jul-19 – – – 3,952 3,952 3,952 0 0 6
Sep-19 4,015 4,017 3,985 4,017 4,006 4,001 -5 30 152
Corn
Turnover: 412,868 lots, or 7.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,710 1,710 1,710 1,710 1,711 1,710 -1 84 3,164
Jul-18 1,737 1,740 1,731 1,731 1,732 1,736 4 108,946 216,548
Sep-18 1,739 1,747 1,735 1,744 1,736 1,742 6 243,894 851,456
Nov-18 1,757 1,765 1,756 1,762 1,758 1,759 1 74 928
Jan-19 1,780 1,788 1,777 1,785 1,777 1,782 5 59,756 183,320
Mar-19 1,793 1,795 1,791 1,794 1,788 1,794 6 114 1,760
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,077,430 lots, or 66.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,134 3,134 3,086 3,086 3,089 3,092 3 1,564 4,384
Jul-18 3,156 3,165 3,100 3,151 3,162 3,148 -14 169,088 159,656
Aug-18 3,197 3,199 3,158 3,164 3,206 3,180 -26 150 658
Sep-18 3,221 3,225 3,178 3,206 3,221 3,205 -16 1,496,444 3,109,756
Nov-18 3,253 3,254 3,200 3,232 3,244 3,230 -14 1,134 5,064
Dec-18 3,221 3,248 3,197 3,248 3,246 3,218 -28 10 366
Jan-19 3,253 3,257 3,206 3,235 3,253 3,232 -21 408,234 937,916
Mar-19 3,186 3,188 3,144 3,173 3,191 3,160 -31 806 4,814
Palm Oil
Turnover: 370,808 lots, or 18.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 4,888 4,904 4,888 4,904 4,952 4,900 -52 170 6,984
Jun-18 – – – 5,176 5,176 5,176 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 4,926 4,978 4,926 -52 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,060 5,060 5,060 0 0 12
Sep-18 4,956 4,958 4,930 4,950 4,986 4,944 -42 331,586 582,470
Oct-18 5,074 5,074 4,946 4,982 5,060 5,004 -56 12 22
Nov-18 – – – 5,066 5,066 5,066 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,088 5,144 5,088 -56 0 0
Jan-19 4,988 4,992 4,964 4,982 5,012 4,976 -36 39,038 92,312
Feb-19 – – – 5,132 5,168 5,132 -36 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 5,082 5,082 5,082 5,082 5,116 5,082 -34 2 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 343,024 lots, or 19.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,546 5,550 5,526 5,550 5,556 5,530 -26 3,146 10,114
Jul-18 5,618 5,618 5,618 5,618 5,662 5,618 -44 2 128
Aug-18 – – – 5,764 5,764 5,764 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,768 5,770 5,728 5,766 5,772 5,752 -20 291,602 946,866
Nov-18 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,856 5,820 -36 2 26
Dec-18 – – – 5,818 5,852 5,818 -34 0 22
Jan-19 5,906 5,908 5,862 5,894 5,912 5,886 -26 48,270 173,580
Mar-19 6,016 6,016 6,016 6,016 6,064 6,016 -48 2 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322