William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
After a brutally cold April, the planters are FINALLY rolling – and we thought that “planting pressure” coupled with a sharply higher dollar would drive July Futures down to the April Lows. But positive trade rumors rescued the mkt – in fact before correcting today, July Meal scored new contract highs!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 679,379 MT (472,335) – Thur sales were 371,000 MT
30 April 120,000 Arg
24 April 130,000 Arg
- CROP PROGRESS – as expected, a slow start but in line with the 5 yr avg
Bean Pltg – 5% (lw – 2 avg – 5)
Ill – 7 (5) Ind – 3 (4) Iowa – 3 (3)
- TRADE ISSUES – are mitigating with US trade people meeting with the Chinese in Bejing later this wk – and NAFTA looking to get resolved
- SOUTH AMERICA DROUGHT – has been well-chronicled and is probably very “old news” by now –but it clearly illustrates that having bumper crops year-after-year is not a given
- US DOLLAR – has gone vertical since Mid April – going up almost 300 points –
Off of expected interest rate increases in 2018 – However, the grain complex hasn’t seemed to mind
- NEW CONTRACT HIGHS IN JULY MEAL – it’s always good to have meal lead the upside rallies
Meal’s move speaks volumes in a mkt unaided by Chinese exports & normally hurt by planting pressure & a strong dollar – what happens if you throw a little heat into the mix?
After breaking 15 cents (401-386) in Mid-April off of trade jitters & a rallying US Dollar, the mkt snapped back in a hurry – rallying 20 cents (385-405) in just 7 trading days – imminent trade resolution with China & NAFTA did the trick! As well, ongoing stellar exports have been the “BULLS FRIEND”! July Corn’s 8 month highs speak for themselves & may well be augmented by weather induced corn –bean switching!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,465,265 MMT ( 1,737, 986) – Thur sales were 697,000 (800-1200)
26 April – 107,600 Unk
- CORN PLANTING – as advertised – is behind – but maybe not as much as expected – given the second coldest April in history
CORN PLTG – 17% (lw-5, avg – 27)
Ill – 32 (40) Ind – 8 (18) Iowa – 17 (27)
- MAY 10 USDA S/D– the first reporting from the govt on new crop supply & demand – eagerly anticipated by corn traders – who expect solid reductions in both domestic & world carry-out – due to months of robust export
- IMPRESSIVE S/D FUNDAMENTALS – starting with hearty exports, then a drought in S/A – then 2million less acres going in – & finally possibly less corn/more beans due to pltg delays – it’s hard not to be encouraged with corn’s upside potential despite its 40 cent rally since January, Corn remains cheap & is still in the 10 year low neighborhood – with the entire planting & growing season ahead & with LA NINA lurking!
The Wheat Quality Tour begins today – traversing East to West – and it will most certainly confirm what is widely known – that the Winter Wheat Crop is in abysmal shape. Anticipating this tour, July Wht rallied 50 cents (470-520) in 6 trading days!
- 4/30/18 crop ratings – gd-to-ex went from 31 to 33%
KS – 13(12) OK – 9(8) TX – 16(14)
- Spring Pltg is way behind – 10% (lw – 3, avg – 36)
- Russia’s WW crop has suffered from a cold wet start to Spring with some estimates at 72 MMT (ly – 85)
- Dry weather in Australia has reduced their crop estimates to the same as last year
The last 8 trading days, you could have thrown a blanket over the trade in June Cat – as it maintained a tight $3 range (104-107). Offsetting fundamental factors have resulted in the impasse!
- June Cat’s enormous discount to cash & burgeoning Spring Barbeque Demand with the warmer climes – have supported the mkt
- But an imminent, huge increase in beef production( up 10.2% in the 2nd qtr) is capping any upside movement
The hefty premium June Hogs recently held to cash was partially erased in the past two weeks – as sluggish export demand & big supply fears forced a $7.00 break (79-72) in June Hog Futures! But now, with the mkt poised just off its April lows & with cash strengthening, the “Barbeque Season” could well spawn some positive rallies!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337