Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. March Coffee, Cocoa Imports-May 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2018—- —-Feb 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 129,355,078 285,227,947 119,426,928 263,336,376
coffee, roasted 7,368,889 16,248,400 6,306,684 13,906,238
instant 3,705,874 8,171,452 2,879,812 6,349,985
cocoa beans 56,265,952 124,066,424 56,378,342 124,314,244
10 lbs or over 2,553,713 5,630,937 2,525,163 5,567,984
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,868,815 19,555,737 9,544,187 21,044,932
not defatted 3,663,987 8,079,091 3,570,176 7,872,238
defatted 2,214,775 4,883,579 3,598,500 7,934,693
unsweetened 10,863,903 23,954,906 9,706,427 21,402,672
sweetened 54,315 119,765 36,100 79,601
coating 3,394,253 7,484,328 2,798,319 6,170,293
chocolate 10,099,156 22,268,639 11,040,712 24,344,770
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in quiet trading. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed very strong volumes last week. Chart trends are mixed on daily charts and up on weekly charts. New crop planting has been slow, but not unusually slow when compared to last year and the five-year average. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. However, the precipitation was minimal and not of much benefit to farmers. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks, and producers in the western Great Plains are likely to wait for better rains before planting more Cotton. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out. The overall planting pace is likely to remain slow.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get some rains over the second half of the week and the weekend, then dry next week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 80.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 73,713 bales, from 73,285 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 0 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 189 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 189,900 bales this year and 299,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 11,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8400, 8330, and 8300 July, with resistance of 8510, 8540, and 8580 July.
DJ U.S. March Cotton Exports-May 3
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 18 Feb 18 Jan 18 Mar 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 28,917,556 19,017,467 11,610,533 14,193,421
1 to 1 1/8 inch 166,100,972 137,705,129 141,614,762 156,252,484
upland 1 1/8 and over 299,191,902 255,300,485 194,177,953 245,482,673
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 12,801,458 19,194,488 11,115,077 5,618,902
All cotton 507,011,888 431,217,569 358,518,325 421,547,480
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Mar 18 Feb 18 Jan 18 Mar 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 132,817 87,347 53,327 65,190
1 to 1 1/8 inch 762,896 632,474 650,431 717,662
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,374,177 1,172,586 891,852 1,127,493
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 58,797 88,160 51,051 25,807
All cotton 2,328,687 1,980,566 1,646,661 1,936,152
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for one more day. It looks like FCOJ is in a weather market as dry conditions are reported in Florida and in production areas of Brazil. The weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some areas of Florida. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some rains were reported over the week. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing pea sized to marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Variable conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend. There have been no deliveries so far in New York against May contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 150.00 July, with resistance at 161.00, 164.00, and 165.00 July.
General Comments Futures in New York were lower yesterday after making new highs for the move. New York futures penetrated an important resistance area near 125.00 July, but could not hold above that level at the end. Funds and other speculators were net sellers and industry was a net buyer. The weekly charts still show that a reversal might have happened last week. London closed higher for the day, and daily charts show the potential for a new uptrend to be underway. More and more traders are now looking for the market to reverse as the speculator gets out-of-the-way and tries to book profits, Some traders now think a significant rally is just around the corner. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Wire reported suggest that conditions for the crop are good as the rainy season gets underway. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.995 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 87 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 117.00 July, and resistance is at 126.00, 128.00 and 129.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1820 and 1870 July. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 July, and resistance is at 1820, 1860, and 1880 July.
DJ ECF Data Shows European Coffee Stocks Rise in March
By David Hodari
LONDON–European coffee stocks rose in March 2018, marking only the second time they have risen in nine months, the European Coffee Federation said Thursday.
Stocks rose 1.48%, or 9,489 tons, according to March stock data.
March was the second month in which the ECF included data from the port of Barcelona in its overall total. Coffee stocks rose in March, both including and excluding Barcelona’s stocks from the past months.
The total amount of beans in six major European coffee ports where the ECF tracks stocks, including Barcelona, Antwerp, Hamburg, Genoa, Le Havre and Trieste, was 650,994 tons by the end of March, up from 641,505 tons at the end of February.
The data revealed gains in only Antwerp and Genoa, the ports with the largest and third-largest stocks, respectively. Inventories at Antwerp, the biggest stockholder, increased 3% to 324,610 tons. Stocks at Genoa, which is the third-largest stockholder, climbed by 2.1% to 91,875 tons.
Meanwhile, inventory at Hamburg, the second-largest stockholder, fell 0.35% to 118,953 tons. Le Havre’s and Trieste’s stocks fell by 8.9% and 1.1%, respectively.
Barcelona’s stocks for March were at 48,550 tons, up 2.4% on month.
London-traded robusta futures were last flat at $1,807 a ton and New York-traded arabica beans were up 0.44% at $1.24 a pound.
General Comments: Futures were mixed in both markets again yesterday on ideas that the market has made a temporary low in the last week. However, the fundamentals suggest that lower prices are still coming down the road. There is still a lot of talk about big world production and big supplies available to the market, but also some talk of less production for the coming year due to the low prices. Even so, the market seems to anticipate that plenty of Sugar will be around, and many analysts support that idea by calling for big production surpluses for this and next year. Reports in the first part of last week that the Brazil season was off to a big start caused the last round of selling interest, and ideas that the market was oversold has caused the recent recovery. Traders hear about big production from world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 2.0 million tons this year, but will have a surplus that is doublé that amount. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1130, 1100, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1240, and 1270 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 316.00, 311.00, and 307.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 336.00, and 340.00 August.
DJ Brazil Forecasts 2018-19 Sugarcane Harvest to Decline From Prior Season
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian farmers will produce 626 million metric tons of sugarcane in the 2018-19 growing season, a decline from the previous season, government crop agency Conab said Thursday.
In the 2017-18 season, the country’s farmers grew 633.3 million tons of cane. Brazilian sugar mills will produce 35.5 million tons of sugar in the 2018-19 season, down from 37.9 million tons in the previous season, and ethanol output will increase to 28.2 billion liters from 27.8 billion liters, Conab said.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of sugar.
DJ Green Pool Ratchets Up Sugar Surplus Forecast — Market Talk
1023 GMT – Raw sugar futures were last down 0.68% at 11.66 U.S. cents a pound. The market has been under considerable pressure in recent months and the Indian government’s announcement Wednesday it will subsidise millers’ export efforts for the first time in almost five years hasn’t helped. Piling on is the latest forecast from Australian consultancy Green Pool. The report reveals that Green Pool has again upped its surplus forecast for the 2017/18 season, this time by 3.5 million tons — or another 27% — to 18.869 million tons. As for 2018/19, there’s no relief in sight for beleaguered sugar traders — Green Pool has upped its surplus estimate to 6.55 million tons, up 10% from its last late-March forecast. (email@example.com; @davidhodari)
General Comments Futures were lower in both New York and London. It looks like the funds and big speculators have turned sellers and that the market could be making a top. New York was the weaker market, but has run higher than London in recent weeks and has been more in need of a price correction. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in all countries. Yield estimates imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Certified stocks are increasing in the US as US futures have been so much stronger than London futures.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.397 million bags. ICE said that 2 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 169 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2800, 2730, and 2700 July, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1900, 1890, and 1850 July, with resistance at 1970, 2000, and 2030 July.
DJ More Rainfall in Nigeria to Boost Cocoa Crops – Officials, Traders
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Nigeria’s two cocoa-producing regions had more heavy rainfall on Wednesday, which will boost the midcrop and help the growth of the 2018-19 main crop, industry officials and traders said Thursday.
The overnight rain in the southwest region, which accounts for 70% of the country’s annual cocoa production, was the heaviest this year and ushered in the rainy season, Bolaji Akinlotan, a trader in Ibadan, Oyo state, said.
Toba Adenowuro, a cocoa desk officer in the Ministry of Agriculture in Ondo state–the country’s largest cocoa producer–said the rain would boost the size and weight of the midcrop and that farmers can now begin to transplant their cocoa seedlings to raise new cocoa plantations.
“The current rainfall and recent downpours have resulted in heavy flowering on cocoa trees for next season’s main crop,” Mr. Adenowuro said.
Mazi Uche, an official of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, said it also rained in Abia in the southeast region.
Last month, Sayina Riman, president of CAN, said Nigeria’s 2018-19 main crop harvest will start at least a month ahead of schedule due to wet weather in the country’s south. The harvest usually starts in September but Mr. Riman said “if the rain keeps up, we will see early harvest in July or August.”
According to CAN, Nigeria produces 300,000 metric tons of cocoa at year but it hasn’t given any production forecast for the 2018-19 season.