About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 30
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 26, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/26/2018 04/19/2018 04/27/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 196 73 2,515 21,340 34,949
CORN 1,465,265 1,737,986 1,131,042 31,258,487 38,489,776
FLAXSEED 0 0 514 4,745 31,588
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 299 12,679 15,189
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 193,785 123,362 115,611 4,502,833 4,209,088
SOYBEANS 679,379 472,335 554,458 43,503,705 49,499,137
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 376,256 643,937 589,782 21,895,240 24,400,542
Total 2,714,981 2,977,693 2,394,221 101,199,029 116,680,269
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May. 02, 2018 52 Apr 03, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL May. 02, 2018 265 Apr 26, 2018
ROUGH RICE May. 02, 2018 184 Apr 30, 2018
CORN May. 02, 2018 576 Mar 12, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT May. 02, 2018 159 Apr 26, 2018
OATS May. 02, 2018 26 Apr 30, 2018
SOYBEAN May. 02, 2018 145 Apr 24, 2018

Crop Progress
Date 29-Apr 22-Apr 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 12 10 14 14
Corn Planted 17 5 32 27
Corn Emerged 3 8 6
Soybeans Planted 5 2 9 5
Sorghum Planted 26 24 27 26
Rice Planted 55 49 72 57
Rice Emerged 29 21 56 38
Peanuts Planted 9 3 11 8
Sugar beets Planted 24 12 46 49
Oats Planted 39 31 66 64
Oats Emerged 29 26 46 44
Winter Wheat Headed 19 13 41 30
Spring Wheat Planted 10 3 30 36
Barley Planted 26 11 31 44
Barley Emerged 7 2 13 17

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 16 21 30 26 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 15 22 32 25 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 10 33 45 9

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher on continued forecasts for dry weather in the Great Plains. The rains in the Great Plains are still hard to find, and the Kansas Wheat Tour is expected to find very poor crops and conditions as it moves through the state this week. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. USDA showed that fieldwork is much behind normal this week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The weekly export sales report was improved, but cumulative sales and shipments remain behind the pace needed to make USDA targets. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, but might start to fade as there are reports of very dry conditions in both Ukraine and Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some showers and storms are possible today. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see precipitation early in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 520 July. Support is at 501, 499, and 494 July, with resistance at 515, 524, and 532 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 555 July. Support is at 531, 526, and 520 July, with resistance at 543, 548, and 550 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 630 and 650 July. Support is at 610, 600, and 593 July, and resistance is at 621, 627, and 631 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher on more buying from speculators. USDA showed that Rice is now more than half planted in the US. Areas near the Gulf Coast are almost done planting, but areas in the Mid south have had slower planting conditions due to rains and cold weather. Trends are mixed for the short-term, but still up on the weekly charts. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in coming weeks. Futures have held above major support levels at 1250 on the weekly charts. Warmer and drier weather is forecast for much of this week, and there is a chance for significant planting progress to be made. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1297, 1293, and 1281 July, with resistance at 1313, 1320, and 1328 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as traders worried about planting progress and reacted to news of increasing crop stress to the Winter Corn crop in Brazil. The crops there need rain in the short-term in order to fill kernels and reach maturity in good shape, but forecasts call for mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions in the main growing areas. The potential for losses is increasing and comes at the back of significant Corn production losses in Argentina earlier this year. Planting progress in the US has been slow, but should get a little faster this week with warmer temperatures. However, there will be some rain around starting at the middle of the week to slow the planing progress once again. The strength in Crude Oil is thought to be driving demand for Corn for Ethanol to higher levels. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures, but traders are much more interested now than before in the crop conditions here and in Brazil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 413 and 436 July. Support is at 399, 396, and 393 July, and resistance is at 406, 409, and 412 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 233, 230, and 225 July, and resistance is at 240, 244, and 247 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher again in early trading, but Soybeans and Soybean Meal faded and closed lower. Soybean Oil was lower. Soybeans rallied on news that a cargo ship had hit a dock in one of the Rosario ports in Argentina last week and that this particular dock would need repairs. The news created some buying, but there are still supplies available to the market. US producers are planting, but could have sold some additional supplies on the rally. Brazil is about done harvesting and has used rallies to get new sales on the books. Demand has been an issue with traders as the tariff threats with China remain alive, but there are now hopes that the issues with China can be resolved before any punitive tariffs are enacted. There are very high level meetings scheduled between the two sides this week. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. USDA showed almost no planting progress in its reports, but progress is increasing now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1082 July. Support is at 1045, 1038, and 1031 July, and resistance is at 1064, 1067, and 1074 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 423.00 July. Support is at 391.00, 387.00, and 384.00 July, and resistance is at 397.00, 400.00, and 403.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3060, 3030, and 3000 July, with resistance at 3100, 3120, and 3140 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed to a little higher after a choppy session. The Canadian Dollar moved higher against the US Dollar and provided the best reason to sell Canola, and most of the selling was seen in the old crop months. New crop months have held firm amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. Somewhat warmer and drier weather is possible this week. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was closed. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 530.00, 529`.00, and 527.00 July, with resistance at 535.00, 537.00, and 539.00Julay. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2390, 2430, and 2460 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation later this week from west to east, Temperatures mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 56 May 155 July 50 May 51 May 30-Jul
June 49 July 52 July 45 July
July 40 July 52 July 52 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
May July
June 113 July plus 11 July 87 September August
July 123 July plus 10 July 87 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 30
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.40 up 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 547.30 dn 0.10
2 Can 534.30 dn 0.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 575.30 dn 0.10
2 Can 562.30 dn 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 522.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,370 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 228 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9185)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322