About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher, but a Little lower for the week. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed improved volumes. Chart trends are up on daily charts and on weekly charts. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. However, the precipitation was minimal and not of much benefit to farmers. Forecasts are micxed, with some calling for mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks, while others call for significant and very welcome preciptation. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton, and the precipitation will help farmers in those areas get started. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather early this week, but some rains are likely over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see showers and storms today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 80.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 73,461 ba1es, from 71,561 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 67 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 189 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8360, 8300, and 8200 July, with resistance of 8540, 8580, and 8640 July.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Apr 27
Data quoted in bales for week ending Apr 26. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 4,437,507 Southwest 53,889 10,219,747
NC – 763,203 Okla 27,416 862,801
SC – 405,645 Texas 22,941 9,180,522
Ga * – 2,192,698 Kansas 3,532 176,424
Ala – 774,914
Fla – 119,040 Far West 0 724,773
Va – 182,007 NM – 43,246
Ariz – 458,850
Delta 0 4,220,427 Calif – 222,677
Miss – 1,287,347
Tenn – 718,537 Pima – 676,965
Mo – 682,976 Other 0 0
Ark – 1,123,871 Total US 53,889 20,279,419
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 33.9 67.0

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 319,136
: Positions :
: 100,666 16,550 57,708 56,275 228,588 87,302 5,346 301,952 308,192: 17,185 10,945
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,371) :
: 5,031 428 2,954 692 5,566 -4,170 -2,909 4,507 6,039: -136 -1,668
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.5 5.2 18.1 17.6 71.6 27.4 1.7 94.6 96.6: 5.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 327 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 58 96 53 80 29 13 274 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixe don Friday. May closed higher as some traders roll out of positions before First Notice Day this week The weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some áreas. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand, and the weekly Movement and Pack report in Florida is showing higher inventories year on year. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some light to moderate rains were reported over the week. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing pea sized to marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain. Variable conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 154.00 July. Support is at 150.00, 147.00, and 145.00 July, with resistance at 156.00, 158.00, and 160.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,389 :
: Positions :
: 8,268 8,681 1,367 0 2 881 2,657 115 902 771 1,777 :
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 :
: -762 396 -19 0 -3 196 -639 12 101 -95 -927 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.7 56.4 8.9 0.0 0.0 5.7 17.3 0.7 5.9 5.0 11.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 20 11 5 0 . 6 13 . 11 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York were higher on Friday and higher for the week as strong comercial buying along with speculative short covering. The weekly charts show that a reversal might have happened last week. A weaker US Dollar helped créate new buying interest as well as some fund short covering. London was a little higher. More talk is being Heard about the size of the net short speculative position, with ideas around that it has become way too big. More and more traders are now looking for the market to reverse as the speculator gets out of the way and tries to book profits, Some traders now think a significant rally is just around the corner. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.991 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.66 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 87 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 July, and resistance is at 123.00, 124.00 and 126.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1810 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 297,863
: Positions :
: 46,839 105,973 75,494 111,954 95,288 47,388 12,094 281,675 288,849: 16,188 9,014
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -7,309) :
: 344 -11,100 1,890 -2,032 -734 -3,740 2,252 -3,538 -7,691: -3,771 382
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 35.6 25.3 37.6 32.0 15.9 4.1 94.6 97.0: 5.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 545 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 184 165 165 141 117 27 16 432 395:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/24/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
132,802 81,865 71,240 5,637 2,410 2,864
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 61.6% 53.6% 4.2% 1.8% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 57 52 16 4 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,846 29,174 8,172 2,619 2,526 11,140
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.2% 22.0% 6.2% 2.0% 1.9% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 30 16 10 7 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,659 5,275
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 4.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets on Friday, but lower for the week. Both markets made new lows on the weekly charts before showing a small recovery. Reports in the first part of the week that the Brazil season was off to a big start caused the selling interest as the market now expects even more Sugar to be available. There has been little in the way of positive news for traders in the last year as producion estimates have climbed and demand estimates have not. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short term have been key to any selling. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 2.0 million tons this year, but will have a surplus that is doublé that amount. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather until some showers return on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1100, 1080, and 1050 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1240 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 322.00, 311.00, and 307.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 336.00, and 346.00 August.

DJ Pakistan’s Sugar Stock Piles Continue to Rise — Market Talk
0429 GMT – Pakistan’s sugar stock piles continue to rise as plans to increase exports stumble even after the government increased the amount eligible for export subsidy, according the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA says only 1 million metric tons of Pakistani sugar is expected to be exported in 2017/18 vs. the 2.0 million tons that is eligible for a generous export subsidy. However, it notes that low domestic prices in Pakistan, mean sugar production in 2018/19 are expected to fall 12% as farmers move to cotton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,134,439
: Positions :
: 158,067 329,285 241,420 396,447 459,360 248,383 16,284 1,044,316 1,046,349: 90,123 88,091
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: 5,925) :
: 4,360 12,381 6,369 10,804 -12,595 -20,229 -854 1,304 5,301: 4,620 623
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 29.0 21.3 34.9 40.5 21.9 1.4 92.1 92.2: 7.9 7.8
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 91 89 77 75 22 14 219 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/24/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
95,986 29,759 59,517 21,543 1,405 1,511
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 31.0% 62.0% 22.4% 1.5% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 44 52 15 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,769 20,931 5,280 6,003 1,097 2,189
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.8% 21.8% 5.5% 6.3% 1.1% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 25 10 11 6 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,932 4,056
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were higher in both New York and London. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in all countries. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Bloomberg reported last week that the difference between New York and London prices is historically large. This is due to fund buying in New York, but also due to increased Cameroon offers in Europe. European buyers do not like Cameroons Cocoa, so the supplies have been certified in London for delivery. So, the longs in London are leaving the market to avoid having to take Cameroons Cocoa. The big spread implies that African Cocoa can make it to New York for delivery and generate profits for sellers. Asian supplies are now less available since Asian grindng capacity has increased, so New York has space for African Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.349 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2630 July, with resistance at 2860, 2890, and 2920 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objjectives of 1910 July. Support is at 1850, 1810, and 1780 July, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1940 July.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Apr 27
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for April 27, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 310 3,146.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 230 3,066.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 180 3,016.00
Ecuador 200 3,036.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 175 3,011.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.85 8,082.60
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.46 1,300.00
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for April 20, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 323 3,078.50
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 238 2,993.50
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 188 2,943.50
Ecuador 200 2,956.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 173 2,928.50
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.85 7,854.60
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.49 1,305.00
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for April 13, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 340 2,916.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 250 2,826.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 200 2,776.00
Ecuador 220 2,796.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 180 2,756.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.90 7,470.40
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.58 1,500.00
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for April 6, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 350 2,848.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 240 2,738.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 195 2,693.00
Ecuador 200 2,698.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 180 2,678.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.92 7,294.16
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.54 1,350.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 358,440
: Positions :
: 101,920 50,921 101,116 91,240 175,599 49,988 20,779 344,264 348,416: 14,176 10,024
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: 20,071) :
: 4,978 -691 11,511 3,518 8,973 9 113 20,015 19,905: 56 166
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.4 14.2 28.2 25.5 49.0 13.9 5.8 96.0 97.2: 4.0 2.8
: Total Traders: 279 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 73 87 41 42 25 12 233 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/24/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
401,743 214,604 263,455 18,363 25,784 28,011
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.4% 65.6% 4.6% 6.4% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
173 56 48 16 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
59,545 8,833 30,914 2,787 45 42,116
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.8% 2.2% 7.7% 0.7% 0.0% 10.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 13 17 14 6 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,402 2,584
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322