About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Apr 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May. 01, 2018 52 Jan 12, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL May May. 01, 2018 638 Apr 23, 2018
ROUGH RICE May May. 01, 2018 215 Apr 26, 2018
CORN May May. 01, 2018 10 Aug 08, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT May May. 01, 2018 327 Apr 23, 2018
OATS May May. 01, 2018 98 Apr 27, 2018
SOYBEAN May May. 01, 2018 415 Apr 10, 2018

DJ Principal Field Crops Acreage Summary – Apr 27
WINNIPEG–The following table is a recap of Statistics
Canada’s acreage report as of March 31, 2018. Pre-report
expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are
in million acres.
PreReport StatsCan StatsCan
Estimates 2018/19 2017/18
Canola 23.500 – 24.300 21.383 22.997
All Wheat* 20.500 – 24.200 25.259 22.391
Durum 4.800 – 5.700 5.777 5.205
Barley 5.250 – 6.800 6.059 5.766
Flaxseed 0.900 – 1.200 0.989 1.040
Oats 3.000 – 3.400 3.148 3.200
Peas 3.200 – 3.700 3.868 4.093
Lentils 3.000 – 3.850 4.050 4.405
Soybeans 6.800 – 7.850 6.452 7.282
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher on continued forecasts for dry weather in the Great Plains. May was the upside leader as short positions got rolled or liquidated before First Notice Day today. The rains in the Great Plains are still hard to find, and the Kansas Wheat Tour is expected to find very poor crops and conditions as it moves through the state this week. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. USDA showed that fieldwork is much behind normal last week, and should show the same thing this week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The weekly export sales report was improved, but cumulative sales and shipments remain behind the pace needed to make USDA targets. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough. The daily charts for all three markets show stability in prices. The weekly charts still show weakness, but the markets seem to be cheap enough due to the ongoing weather problems in the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some showers and storms are posible today. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see precipitation early in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 503 and 520 July. Support is at 485, 477, and 468 July, with resistance at 504, 510, and 524 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 534 and 555 July. Support is at 520, 516, and 509 July, with resistance at 533, 543, and 548 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 600, 593, and 591 July, and resistance is at 611, 613, and 619 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 582,582
: Positions :
: 88,856 159,514 180,303 109,262 163,010 172,366 36,329 550,786 539,155: 31,796 43,427
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -29,903) :
: -2,361 5,021 -26,290 5,512 -7,395 -4,617 1,719 -27,756 -26,945: -2,147 -2,958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 27.4 30.9 18.8 28.0 29.6 6.2 94.5 92.5: 5.5 7.5
: Total Traders: 427 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 158 152 97 108 28 15 334 342:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 279,036
: Positions :
: 64,341 34,381 66,182 59,337 138,578 66,111 12,037 255,971 251,178: 23,065 27,858
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -14,455) :
: 2,418 -2,851 -7,875 -4,032 180 -4,881 -5,336 -14,371 -15,883: -84 1,428
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.1 12.3 23.7 21.3 49.7 23.7 4.3 91.7 90.0: 8.3 10.0
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 45 82 73 82 21 9 220 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 62,376 :
: Positions :
: 27,889 33,662 4,089 0 116 7,414 8,849 763 6,933 2,432 2,478 :
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 :
: -2,203 -4,345 223 0 -6 -751 1,400 -17 -1,782 -924 -578 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.7 54.0 6.6 0.0 0.2 11.9 14.2 1.2 11.1 3.9 4.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 91 :
: 40 35 5 0 . 12 7 5 13 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher on more buying from speculators. Speculators are mostly buying to cover short positions, although some are now long the market. Trends are mixed for the short term, but still up on the weekly charts. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in cioming weeks. Futures have held above major support levels at 1250 on the weekly charts. Farmers are done planting along the Gulf Coast, although some second crop Rice might still be there to be planted.. Planting progress is moving forward in the Mid South as temperaturas have warmed. Warmer and drier weather is forecast for much of this week, and there is a chance for significant planting progress to be made. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is availble in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1293, 1281, and 1272 July, with resistance at 1311, 1320, and 1328 July.

DJ Rough-Rice Output Seen Hitting Record in 2018 — Market Talk
0944 GMT – This year’s global production of rough rice, also known as paddy rice, is now seen hitting a record level thanks to increased planting, says the Food and Agriculture Organization. The projected 1.4% growth to 769.9 million metric tons comes amid “improvements to produce prices and ongoing state support.” The group adds the biggest output increases should come from India, although there are expected to be sizeable rebounds in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,483 :
: Positions :
: 3,894 6,820 172 0 94 1,460 568 128 541 304 651 :
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 :
: -763 -184 6 -26 -6 322 -160 128 -98 27 -67 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.1 71.9 1.8 0.0 1.0 15.4 6.0 1.3 5.7 3.2 6.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49 :
: 16 16 . 0 . 8 . . 6 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as traders worried about planting progress and reacted to newes of increasing crop stress to the Winter Corn crop in Brazil. The crops there need rain in the short term in order to fill kernels and reach maturity in good shape, but forecasts call for mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions in the main growing áreas. The potential for losses is increasing and comes at the back of significant Corn production losses in Argentina earlier this year. The strength in Crude Oil is thought to be driving demand for Corn for Ethanol to higher levels. Forecasts for better weather conditions to start planting in the Midwest are around, and most farmers hope to be in the fields this week. This is most likely to happen in southwest parts of the Corn Belt where conditions have been drier, but many áreas should see strong progress this week as the temperaturas turn warmer and soild turn firmer. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 396, 393, and 389 July, and resistance is at 401, 403, and 406 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 230, 225, and 221 July, and resistance is at 237, 240, and 244 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,259,200
: Positions :
: 385,804 233,577 610,195 621,137 1,072,813 421,392 61,849 2,038,528 1,978,434: 220,672 280,766
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -123,043) :
: 6,900 16,606 -68,399 -27,780 -31,345 -33,697 -29,658 -122,976 -112,797: -67 -10,246
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.1 10.3 27.0 27.5 47.5 18.7 2.7 90.2 87.6: 9.8 12.4
: Total Traders: 931 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 243 151 270 390 408 31 21 792 750:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 6,323 :
: Positions :
: 854 2,734 305 0 0 0 815 2 1,400 326 92 :
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 :
: 46 -306 1 0 0 0 -149 2 -167 -25 -161 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 43.2 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0 22.1 5.2 1.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 10 8 . 0 0 0 5 . 6 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher again on Friday in sympathy with grains as forecasts for weather this week offered hopes for a lot of fieldwork to get done. Soybeans also rallied on news that a cargo ship had hit a dock in one of the Rosaro ports in Argentina last week and that this particular dock would need repairs. The news created some buying, but it is still not known how much damage was done and what might happen to demand for Argentine goods. Demand has been an issue with traders ever since the tariff threats with China remain alive, but there are now hopes that the issues with China can be resolved before any punitive tariffs are enacted. There are very high level meetings scheduled between the two sides this week. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harrvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. USDA showed almost no planting progress in its reports last week, and might not show much progress this week, but progress is increasing now.
Overnight News: Argentina bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1064 and 1082 July. Support is at 1045, 1038, and 1031 July, and resistance is at 1064, 1074, and 1079 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 400.00 and 423.00 July. Support is at 391.00, 387.00, and 384.00 July, and resistance is at 400.00, 403.00, and 406.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3060, 3030, and 3000 July, with resistance at 3100, 3120, and 3140 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,055,909
: Positions :
: 204,989 66,036 217,248 372,832 604,087 203,260 36,066 998,328 923,437: 57,580 132,472
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -118,951) :
: -16,222 1,335 -58,108 -27,085 -52,610 -14,089 -2,481 -115,504 -111,863: -3,447 -7,088
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.4 6.3 20.6 35.3 57.2 19.2 3.4 94.5 87.5: 5.5 12.5
: Total Traders: 698 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 201 130 244 216 271 29 15 568 573:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 518,430
: Positions :
: 106,691 135,328 117,778 144,971 227,317 111,625 5,162 481,064 485,584: 37,365 32,845
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -40,366) :
: -796 7,795 -27,100 -1,756 -12,213 -6,557 -7,071 -36,209 -38,588: -4,158 -1,778
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.6 26.1 22.7 28.0 43.8 21.5 1.0 92.8 93.7: 7.2 6.3
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 104 121 86 82 25 11 286 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 556,334
: Positions :
: 126,575 24,927 127,922 143,065 348,047 107,734 21,609 505,296 522,505: 51,038 33,829
: Changes from: April 17, 2018 (Change in open interest: -32,254) :
: -8,322 2,288 -21,498 6,556 -7,616 -5,825 -4,092 -29,088 -30,919: -3,166 -1,335
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.8 4.5 23.0 25.7 62.6 19.4 3.9 90.8 93.9: 9.2 6.1
: Total Traders: 339 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 55 114 98 105 23 11 297 249:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher after a choppy session on Chicago price action in Soybean Oil. The Canadian Dollar moved lower against the US Dollar and provided the best reason to buy Canola. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork imposible. Somewhat warmer and drier weather is posible this week. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was lower on weak demand reports from the private sources. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released ovenight. Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.331 million tons in April, from 1.394 million in March. AmSpec said that exports were 1.311 million tons, from 1.391 million in April.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 536.00, 534`.00, and 531.00 May, with resistance at 544.00, 550.00, and 556.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2500 July.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Apr 26
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada for
the month of March, reported by Statistics Canada are as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2017/18 2016/17
Canola Mar. 2018 Mar. 2017 To Date To Date
Seed Crushed 820,712 821,990 6,134,809 6,262,425
Oil Produced 369,137 358,861 2,732,984 2,728,691
Meal Produced 454,219 458,774 3,428,424 3,506,953
Soybeans
Seed Crushed 175,266 153,072 1,268,319 1,268,461
Oil Produced 31,608 29,122 231,652 239,782
Meal Produced 135,496 118,538 985,205 981,829
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitatiion later this week from west to east, Temnperatures mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 60 May 155 May 63 May 52 May 28-May
May 56 May 61 May 55 May
June 52 July 50 July 46 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
May July
June 115 July plus 12 July 86 September August
July 125 July plus 10 July 84 September September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 27
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.30 dn 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 547.40 up 0.10
2 Can 534.40 up 0.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 575.40 up 0.10
2 Can 562.40 up 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 522.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,370 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 228 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9185)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018