Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher as the market recovered the big losses seen the day before. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed improved volumes. Strong sales are anticipated again this morning. Chart trends are up on daily charts and on weekly charts. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. However, the precipitation was minimal and not of much benefit to farmers. Forecasts are mixed, with some calling for mostly dry weather for the next couple of weeks, while others call for significant and very welcome precipitation. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton, and the precipitation will help farmers in those areas get started. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather early this week, but some rains are likely over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 80.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 67,714 bales, from 67,997 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 24 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 75 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8140, 8120, and 7980 July, with resistance of 8450, 8540, and 8580 July.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again on what appeared to be speculative buying. May closed a little lower as some traders roll out of positions before First Notice Day next week The weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some areas. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand, and the weekly Movement and Pack report in Florida is showing higher inventories year on year. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some light to moderate rains were reported over the weekend. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing pea sized to marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain. Variable conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather the rest of this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 151.00 May. Support is at 143.00, 142.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance at 148.00, 150.00, and 152.00 May.
General Comments Futures in New York were higher as strong commercial buying met some fund selling. A weaker US Dollar helped create new buying interest as well as some fund short covering. London was a little higher. More talk is being Heard about the size of the net short speculative position, with ideas around that it has become way too big. More and more traders are now looking for the market to reverse as the speculator gets out-of-the-way and tries to book profits,Some traders now think a significant rally is just a round the corner. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.982 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.71 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 87 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 111.00 July. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 July, and resistance is at 121.00, 123.00 and 124.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800, 1820, and 1870 July. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1810 July.
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower again in both markets for one more day. Reports that the Brazil season was off to a big start caused the selling interest as the market now expects even more Sugar to be available. There has been little in the way of positive news for traders in the last year as production estimates have climbed and demand estimates have not. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 2.0 million tons this year, but will have a surplus that is doublé that amount. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather until some showers return on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1080, 1050, and 1020 July, and resistance is at 1140, 1180, and 1200 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 304.00 August, and resistance is at 329.00, 332.00, and 336.00 August.
General Comments Futures were higher in both New York and London as the grind data was left behind and traders instead concentrated on the currencies. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Bloomberg reported yesterday that the difference between New York and London prices is historically large. This is cue to fund buying in New York, but also due to increased Cameroon offers in Europe. European buyers do not like Cameroons Cocoa, so the supplies have been certified in London for delivery. So, the longs in London are leaving the market to avoid having to take Cameroons Cocoa. The big spread implies that African Cocoa can make it to New York for delivery and generate profits for sellers. Asian supplies are now less available since Asian grinding capacity has increased, so New York has pace for African Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.319 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2750, 2700, and 2670 July, with resistance at 2860, 2890, and 2920 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1910 July. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1750 July, with resistance at 1870, 1890, and 1910 July.