About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher on continued forecasts for dry weather in the Great Plains. The rains in the Great Plains last weekend were less than expected and did little good in some areas. It will now turn warmer and drier and more crop stress is expected in the Great Plains. There are some forecasts for rains in these areas, but most forecasts look for generally warm and dry conditions to continue for the next couple of weeks Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. Minneapolis was higher, anyway, due to the rallies in Winter Wheat markets. USDA showed that fieldwork is much behind normal, and the progress was far behind trade ideas as well. Progress in planting Spring Wheat should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders.. The weekly export sales report was poor, and cumulative sales and shipments remain behind the pace needed to make USDA targets. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough. The daily charts for all three markets show stability in prices. The weekly charts still show weakness, but the markets seem to be cheap enough due to the ongoing weather problems in the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some light showers are possible today. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 493, 514, and 534 May. Support is at 480, 473, and 469 May, with resistance at 494, 498, and 499 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 510, 530, and 534 May. Support is at 497, 490, and 486 May, with resistance at 514, 518, and 529 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 578 and 530 May. Support is at 593, 585, and 583 May, and resistance is at 605, 610, and 620 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher on more buying from speculators. Speculators are mostly buying to cover short positions, although some are now long the market. Trends are mixed for the short-term, but still up on the weekly charts. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in coming weeks. Farmers are planting along the Gulf Coast and are mostly done now. Planting progress is moving forward in the Mid South as temperatures have warmed. Warmer and drier weather is forecast for the nest week, and there is a chance for significant planting progress to be made. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather early this week and scattered showers over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1330 May. Support is at 1307, 1295, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1321, 1335, and 1343 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as traders worried about planting progress and reacted to news of increasing crop stress to the Winter Corn crop in Brazil. The crops there need rain in the short-term in order to fill kernels and reach maturity in good shape, but forecasts call for mostly dry conditions in the main growing areas. The potential for losses is increasing and comes at the back of significant Corn production losses in Argentina earlier this year. The strength in Crude Oil is thought to be driving demand for Corn for Ethanol to higher levels. Forecasts for better weather conditions to start planting in the Midwest are around, and most farmers hope to be in the fields this week. This is most likely to happen in southwest parts of the Corn Belt where conditions have been drier, but many areas should see some minimal progress by the end of the week as the temperatures turn warmer and soil turn firmer. Big progress can be made into nest week as the weather is expected to stay mostly warm and dry. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures, but there is increasing talk of stronger competition from South America and Ukraine and increasing fears of global trade wars in the short-term that could really hurt demand for US products including Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 383, 380, and 379 May, and resistance is at 390, 392, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 221 and 211 May. Support is at 222, 220, and 217 May, and resistance is at 227, 232, and 234 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher in sympathy with grains as forecasts for weather this week offered hopes for a lot of fieldwork to get done. Soybeans also rallied on news that a cargo ship had hit a dock in one of the Rosario ports in Argentina. The news created some buying, but it is not know how much damage was done and what might happen to demand for Argentine goods. Demand has been an issue with traders ever since the tariff threats with China came alive, but there are now hopes that the issues with China can be resolved before any punitive tariffs are enacted. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. There was an initial round of big demand as Brazil premiums moved sharply higher. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. USDA showed almost no planting progress in its reports this week, but progress is increasing now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1014 and 948 May. Support is at 1016, 1009, and 1006 May, and resistance is at 1034, 1040, and 1052 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 373.00, 370.00, and 369.00 May, and resistance is at 383.00, 388.00, and 390.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3090, 3030, and 3010 May. Support is at 3070, 3040, and 3010 May, with resistance at 3120, 3140, and 3160 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on Chicago price action in Soybean Oil. The Canadian Dollar moved sharply lower against the US Dollar and provided the best reason to buy Canola. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. Somewhat warmer and drier weather is possible this week. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was near unchanged. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 536.00, 534`.00, and 531.00 May, with resistance at 544.00, 550.00, and 556.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2500 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more light precipitations later this week from west to east, temperatures mostly below normal, but above normal next week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 68 May 175 May 67 May 60 May 28-May
May 62 May 65 May 53 May
June 52 July 50 July 47 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April July
May 135 May plus 13 May 88 September August
June 132 July plus 9 July 84 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 524.00 up 3.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 554.00 dn 0.50
2 Can 541.00 dn 0.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 584.00 up 4.50
2 Can 571.00 up 4.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.cam 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 550.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,410 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 225 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9135)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 157,096 lots, or 6.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,732 3,767 3,720 3,731 3,746 3,743 -3 6,412 42,462
Jul-18 3,800 3,800 3,792 3,792 3,780 3,796 16 4 396
Sep-18 3,849 3,893 3,838 3,855 3,870 3,867 -3 146,618 171,656
Nov-18 – – – 3,921 3,921 3,921 0 0 0
Jan-19 3,931 3,970 3,917 3,930 3,948 3,947 -1 3,760 10,482
Mar-19 – – – 3,977 3,977 3,977 0 0 2
May-19 3,982 4,020 3,975 3,983 3,998 3,988 -10 144 392
Jul-19 – – – 3,998 3,998 3,998 0 0 6
Sep-19 4,034 4,047 4,015 4,022 4,043 4,026 -17 158 232
Corn
Turnover: 314,252 lots, or 5.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,760 1,768 1,758 1,764 1,768 1,763 -5 10,680 38,560
Jul-18 1,730 1,740 1,730 1,736 1,740 1,735 -5 97,272 475,578
Sep-18 1,738 1,743 1,734 1,737 1,741 1,737 -4 193,032 889,444
Nov-18 1,764 1,768 1,763 1,763 1,767 1,765 -2 14 990
Jan-19 1,772 1,775 1,771 1,771 1,775 1,772 -3 13,226 146,160
Mar-19 1,781 1,784 1,779 1,781 1,784 1,781 -3 28 1,686
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,283,954 lots, or 73.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,084 3,107 3,070 3,090 3,107 3,092 -15 19,872 30,060
Jul-18 3,125 3,160 3,122 3,131 3,139 3,138 -1 161,818 306,620
Aug-18 3,190 3,227 3,171 3,196 3,189 3,196 7 86 514
Sep-18 3,194 3,232 3,186 3,202 3,202 3,209 7 1,813,960 3,224,772
Nov-18 3,162 3,253 3,162 3,220 3,229 3,226 -3 1,112 4,204
Dec-18 3,228 3,228 3,227 3,227 3,223 3,227 4 4 382
Jan-19 3,225 3,258 3,218 3,231 3,232 3,238 6 286,706 867,168
Mar-19 3,221 3,242 3,215 3,222 3,221 3,224 3 396 3,040
Palm Oil
Turnover: 277,280 lots, or 13.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 4,926 4,992 4,926 4,968 4,992 4,974 -18 7,146 17,350
Jun-18 – – – 5,176 5,176 5,176 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 4,970 4,970 4,970 0 0 0
Aug-18 5,060 5,060 5,060 5,060 4,986 5,060 74 6 12
Sep-18 4,980 5,012 4,968 4,990 4,988 4,988 0 256,278 582,006
Oct-18 5,068 5,068 5,068 5,068 5,054 5,068 14 20 22
Nov-18 – – – 5,066 5,066 5,066 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,146 5,132 5,146 14 0 0
Jan-19 5,016 5,036 5,000 5,014 5,018 5,018 0 13,830 73,388
Feb-19 – – – 5,174 5,174 5,174 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,102 5,102 5,102 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 324,144 lots, or 18.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,606 5,606 5,574 5,582 5,602 5,588 -14 15,268 57,364
Jul-18 5,692 5,780 5,692 5,718 5,736 5,730 -6 10 96
Aug-18 – – – 5,784 5,784 5,784 0 0 30
Sep-18 5,762 5,794 5,756 5,766 5,786 5,772 -14 286,454 932,916
Nov-18 – – – 5,912 5,926 5,912 -14 0 24
Dec-18 – – – 5,930 5,930 5,930 0 0 22
Jan-19 5,916 5,940 5,902 5,908 5,932 5,918 -14 22,404 144,964
Mar-19 5,940 6,032 5,936 5,980 6,038 5,972 -66 8 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322