About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 22-Apr 15-Apr 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 9 8 11 10
Corn Planted 5 3 16 14
Soybeans Planted 2 5 2
Sorghum Planted 24 20 24 23
Rice Planted 49 32 67 46
Rice Emerged 21 15 42 27
Peanuts Planted 3 3 3
Sugar beets Planted 12 9 34 37
Oats Planted 31 29 55 55
Oats Emerged 26 26 36 35
Winter Wheat Headed 13 9 30 19
Spring Wheat Planted 3 3 21 25
Barley Planted 11 7 25 33
Barley Emerged 2 6 8

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 15 22 32 25 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 15 22 32 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 10 33 45 9

General Comments: Cotton was higher in early trading on what appeared to be follow through buying from Friday. The rally failed and prices closed a little lower. USDA showed minimal planting progress in its weekly reports last night. Progress might stay very slow this week as it remains too dry in the Great plains and too wet in other areas. Demand remains strong in export markets as the weekly export sales report showed improved volumes. Chart trends are up on daily charts and on weekly charts. The weather in the western Great Plains is showing some improvement as some areas have finally seen some precipitation. However, the precipitation was minimal and not of much benefit to farmers. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton, and the precipitation will help farmers in those areas get started. In contrast, farmers in the Delta and Southeast have seen too much rain and have had delays as soils dry out.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather early this week, but some rains are likely over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 80.15 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,436 bales, from 66,777 bales yesterday. ICE said that there were 0 contracts tendered for delivery today and that total deliveries are now 0 contracts. China imported 107,369 tons of Cotton in March, down 11% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 343,733 tons, down 8.3% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8700 July. Support is at 8400, 8330, and 8300 July, with resistance of 8500, 8540, and 8580 July.

General Comments: FCOJ was higher and closed against the high-end of the recent trading range. The market acts ready to take that resistance area out this week as the weather has been dry and the harvest is starting to wind down in some areas. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand, and the weekly Movement and Pack report in Florida is showing higher inventories year on year. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some light to moderate rains were reported over the weekend. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop. Florida producers are seeing pea sized to marble sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good, although most producers would like more rain. Irrigation is being used. Brazil also could use more rain. Variable conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms today, then mostly dry weather the rest of this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00 May. Support is at 142.00, 140.00, and 138.00 May, with resistance at 146.00, 148.00, and 150.00 May.

General Comments Futures in New York were higher as strong commercial buying met some fund selling. London was a little higher. Increased emphasis is being placed on the size of the net short speculative position, with ideas around that it has become way too big. More and more traders are now looking for the market to reverse as the speculator gets out-of-the-way and tries to book profits,Some traders now think a significant rally is just a round the corner. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady again last week with good supplies noted in the domestic market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.990 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions until showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries today in New York and that total deliveries for the month are 87 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 115.00 and 111.00 July. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 109.00 July, and resistance is at 121.00, 123.00 and 124.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1810July.

General Comments: Futures were sharply lower in both markets yesterday,an the down trends resumed. There has been little in the way of positive news for traders in the last year as production estimates have climbed and demand estimates have not. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. They hope to export 2.0 million tons this year, but will have a surplus that is doublé that amount. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell, and even the EU has had over production in the past year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather until some showers return on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 11120 July. Support is at 1140, 1110, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1240 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 327.00, 318.00, and 314.00 August. Support is at 326.00, 325.00, and 322.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 336.00, and 340.00 August.

Alerts History
• 24-Apr-2018 08:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 CANE CROP SEEN AT 633 MLN TNS VS 657 MLN TNS IN 2016/17 – GOVERNMENT’S FINAL PROJECTION
• 24-Apr-2018 08:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SUGAR PRODUCTION SEEN AT 37.86 MLN TNS VS 38.69 MLN TNS IN 2016/17 – GOVERNMENT
• 24-Apr-2018 08:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 ETHANOL OUTPUT SEEN AT 27.76 BLN LITERS VS 27.8 BLN L IN 2016/17 – GOVERNMENT
Brazil’s 2017/18 sugar output falls to 37.86 mln tonnes – Conab – Reuters
24-Apr-2018 08:28:34 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SAO PAULO, April 24 (Reuters) – Total sugar production in Brazil in the 2017/18 cane crop, considering all producing regions, fell to 37.86 million tonnes compared to 38.69 million tonnes in the previous season, the Brazilian government said on Tuesday.
The drop in sugar production was in part caused by tighter availability of cane, according to agricultural statistics agency Conab’s final forecast for the 2017/18 crop. Conab saw cane production falling to 633 million tonnes in 2017/18 compared to 657 million tonnes in previous season, as ageing fields produced smaller volumes.
Total ethanol output fell only slightly to 27.76 billion liters from 27.8 billion liters in 2016/17.
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira)
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General Comments Futures were a little lower in New York and mixed in London as th grind data was left behind and traders instead concentrated on the currencies and a conference in Europe. The conference noted the difficulty in paying producers a living wage and also sought to focus on child labor and other problems with production. It did not really work on improved marketing or how o expand demand for help for the producer. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.282 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against May Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2630 July, with resistance at 2780, 2860, and 2890 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1910 July. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1750 July, with resistance at 1850, 1870, and 1890 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322