About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to mostly a Little higher in consolidation trading on Friday. The market is concerned about the unfavorable US weather. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton. It is drier in the Delta and Texas, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast. The drier Delta and Southeast weather will be welcome after some big rains in recent days. Warmer temperatures would be beneficial. The Texas Panhandle needs rain badly. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the recent carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather this week, but some rains are likely midweek. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 79.58 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 67,864 bales, from 73,084 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8300, 8230, and 8070 May, with resistance of 8410, 8440, and 8550 May.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Apr 13
Data quoted in bales for week ending Apr 12. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 4,437,255 Southwest 76,234 10,103,665
NC – 763,203 Okla 32,019 813,620
SC – 405,645 Texas 33,774 9,123,420
Ga – 2,192,446 Kansas 10,441 166,625
Ala – 774,914
Fla – 119,040 Far West 0 724,773
Va – 182,007 NM – 43,246
Ariz – 458,850
Delta 0 4,220,427 Calif – 222,677
Miss – 1,287,347
Tenn – 718,537 Pima – 676,965
Mo – 682,976 Other 0 0
Ark – 1,123,871 Total US 76,234 20,163,085
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 37.0 67.2

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 348,033
: Positions :
: 94,412 17,030 72,686 68,887 233,627 90,744 10,962 326,728 334,305: 21,305 13,728
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 924) :
: 1,870 726 -3,280 3,757 5,511 -1,667 -2,746 680 211: 245 713
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.1 4.9 20.9 19.8 67.1 26.1 3.1 93.9 96.1: 6.1 3.9
: Total Traders: 318 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 144 57 100 57 76 29 16 277 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again on Friday and made new highs for the move. The market is in a trading range and could be forming a low. USDA left its Florida oranges production estimates unchanged on Tuesday as had been expected. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering is mostly over, and fruit is forming and starting to develop. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 142.00 and 145.00 May. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,744 :
: Positions :
: 9,351 7,431 1,316 0 0 544 3,747 98 1,006 910 2,556 :
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 :
: 61 -186 -46 0 0 -6 314 2 44 -2 166 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.8 44.4 7.9 0.0 0.0 3.3 22.4 0.6 6.0 5.4 15.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 19 10 4 0 0 . 16 . 9 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York were a Little lower in quiet trading. Trends are still sideways to down on the charts, but the bear side of the market might be about sold out. Funds and other speculators were net sellers and industry is the best buyer. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady last week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 1.956 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 121.00, 122.00 and 124.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1670, and 1640 May, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1780 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 318,356
: Positions :
: 49,003 106,447 83,545 114,713 106,592 51,876 12,430 299,137 309,015: 19,219 9,341
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: -5,340) :
: 2,761 -1,480 -5,870 -699 2,232 843 111 -2,965 -5,008: -2,375 -332
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 33.4 26.2 36.0 33.5 16.3 3.9 94.0 97.1: 6.0 2.9
: Total Traders: 562 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 196 170 176 138 118 28 20 450 410:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/10/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
144,456 86,345 75,855 8,938 2,503 4,120
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.8% 52.5% 6.2% 1.7% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 56 51 16 4 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,562 30,726 8,407 1,859 1,683 15,856
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.4% 21.3% 5.8% 1.3% 1.2% 11.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 35 17 13 6 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,369 5,307
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.7% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were little changed in consolidation trading. Trends are down in both markets. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. UNICA showed a big production increase for Brazil on Monday, and this was the reason for the big selling on Tuesday. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India will export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1180 and 1120 July. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1140 July, and resistance is at 1240, 1270, and 1280 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 332.00 and 328.00 August. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 342.00, 346.00, and 348.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,134,700
: Positions :
: 143,385 314,277 246,332 384,964 455,668 273,082 27,627 1,047,763 1,043,904: 86,937 90,796
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 20,895) :
: 4,987 4,953 14,098 2,678 9,582 -4,591 -9,648 17,172 18,984: 3,723 1,911
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 27.7 21.7 33.9 40.2 24.1 2.4 92.3 92.0: 7.7 8.0
: Total Traders: 282 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 82 98 75 73 24 17 228 228:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/10/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
93,778 33,440 57,578 20,503 1,213 1,084
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 35.7% 61.4% 21.9% 1.3% 1.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 45 54 14 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,425 21,588 4,677 4,872 1,249 1,790
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.9% 23.0% 5.0% 5.2% 1.3% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 29 9 11 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,986 4,599
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 4.9%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were a higher and remain in a trading range. It was a quiet session The market is starting to look ahead at the next round of quarterly grind reports. The reports should show a slight increase in demand for Cocoa beans for processing. Grinders are making good money in the processing right now and will be looking for any beans they can find. For example, Callebrut in Europe reported stronger earnings last week amid improved demand for products. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.047 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2610, 2720, and 2780 May. Support is at 2500, 2430, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2560, 2600, and 2640 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1830, 1880, and 1890 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1750, 1800, and 1830 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 335,734
: Positions :
: 90,893 50,564 83,337 95,338 167,895 49,722 23,295 319,290 325,091: 16,444 10,643
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: -30,031) :
: 2,976 503 -18,108 -12,116 -10,902 -1,487 -296 -28,734 -28,802: -1,297 -1,229
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.1 15.1 24.8 28.4 50.0 14.8 6.9 95.1 96.8: 4.9 3.2
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 83 86 41 41 26 12 222 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/10/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
369,997 204,714 240,703 18,835 27,246 23,363
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.3% 65.1% 5.1% 7.4% 6.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 55 46 17 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
51,521 10,811 25,709 3,401 1,346 37,001
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.9% 2.9% 6.9% 0.9% 0.4% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 12 14 12 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,454 3,819
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 1.0%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322