About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower yesterday on weak export sales and on demand concerns returned to the market. USDA showed increased ending stocks for the US in its monthly updates yesterday, with feed demand cut due to relatively high Wheat prices in the Great Plains and Midwest. USDA also showed plenty of supplies in the world, something that has been ongoing all year. World prices remain somewhat below those of the US, so export demand should remain relatively hard to find. The Winter Wheat crop is out of dormancy and is trying to develop, but it remains too dry and temperatures have been either very warm or very cold. Forecasts still call for dry weather in Texas and Oklahoma and it is dry again in Kansas. There is no real relief in sight as temperatures are warmer in the eastern two-thirds of the US this week. It should be cold again this weekend and early next week. Rains are badly needed in the western Great Plains. USDA showed generally poor crop ratings in its initial crop progress and condition reports this week, and the crop seems to be regressing as condition ratings were worse than the previous week. The daily charts for all three markets show stability in prices, and the charts also imply that prices could go higher over time. Minneapolis is also starting to turn to up trends as the weather remains very cold in Canada and the northern Great Plains. Farmers want to start on fieldwork, but the cold temperatures have made that an impossible task. .
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see Snow and rain over the next few days, then dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 503 May. Support is at 482, 478, and 475 May, with resistance at 494, 498, and 510 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 534 and 587 May. Support is at 509, 507, and 499 May, with resistance at 530, 531, and 533 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 620, 613, and 610 May, and resistance is at 634, 636, and 640 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher despite a weak export sales report yesterday. Farmers are planting along the Gulf Coast and are trying to get the last of the crop in. It remains too cool for many to plant farther to the north in Arkansas, but some fieldwork is underway. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. The situation might not get much better next year. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. Planting other crops such as Soybeans or Cotton could mean better returns for some producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather this week and big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal early in the week and above normal late in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1290 and 1330 May. Support is at 1260, 1254, and 1252 May, with resistance at 1293, 1295, and 1307 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures, but there have not been any announcements of sales on the daily reporting system so far this week. Weather in the Midwest remains too cold, and it has been very wet in southern production areas. Fieldwork has been stalled in almost all areas. It has finally turned warmer in the Midwest, and some initial fieldwork might finally be possible. Cool and wet conditions are expected this weekend, but temperatures should moderate again next week. The market focus will move more from old crop to new crop from now on as traders start to monitor new crop progress and condition along with the old crop demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 393, 410, and 430 May. Support is at 386, 381, and 378 May, and resistance is at 390, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 244 and 255 May. Support is at 234, 231, and 230 May, and resistance is at 24, 245, and 249 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher in response to the strong weekly export sales report. Reports from Brazil indicate that basis levels for export were stable yesterday after dropping the first part of the week on reports of farm selling by Brazil producers and on the Argentine purchase of US Soybeans. Argentina bought more yesterday, and has now bought 240,000 tons of US Soybeans so far this week. Domestic reports indicate that some US producers were also selling Soybeans yesterday. Other buyers have appeared in the US market as the price spread between Brazil and the US has grown very wide in cash markets. US farmers are trying to get fieldwork started, but it has either been too cold or too wet for many producers to get started. The weather seems to be moderating overall, but it will still take time for the fields to warm and dry so good fieldwork can begin.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1085 May. Support is at 1038, 1034, and 1030 May, and resistance is at 1060, 1064, and 1070 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 393.00, 410.00, and 413.00 May. Support is at 376.00, 369.00, and 368.00 May, and resistance is at 390.00, 393.00, and 400.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 3280 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on currency considerations and Chicago price action. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt the buyers and created some late selling in the market. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower again on selling tied to the bearish production data from MPOB. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 538.00 and 555.00 May. Support is at 522.00, 517.00, and 515.00 May, with resistance at 527.00, 531.00, and 534.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2530 and 2600 June. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2460, 2520, and 2540 June.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : March
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.49 mil tonnes, Up 11.3%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.27 mil tonnes, Down 8.6%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 17.2%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.32 mil tonnes, Down 6.2%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.34 mil tonnes, Down 15.4%
Exports – 1.31 mil tonnes, Down 13.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.48 mil tonnes, Down 2.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation late this week and again over the weekend, Temperatures mostly below normal early in the week and over the weekend and above normal late in the week. Below normal again starting late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 65 May 160 May 65 May 72 May 25-May
May 64 May 65 May 71 May
June 57 July 50 July 60 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 130 May 110 July
May 130 May plus 7 May 85 September August
June 150 July plus 1 July 82 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 12
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 511.40 dn 3.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 539.90 up 1.50
2 Can 526.90 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 564.90 up 3.50
2 Can 551.90 up 3.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge n/a n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge n/a n/a
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,420 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 235.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.8785)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 138,618 lots, or 5.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,842 3,870 3,833 3,857 3,855 3,855 0 23,186 80,626
Jul-18 3,879 3,899 3,863 3,895 3,925 3,885 -40 132 172
Sep-18 3,956 3,990 3,946 3,980 3,976 3,973 -3 111,588 192,484
Nov-18 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,996 3,962 -34 2 2
Jan-19 4,010 4,030 3,980 4,025 4,008 4,013 5 3,410 7,542
Mar-19 – – – 4,051 4,051 4,051 0 0 2
May-19 4,070 4,103 4,055 4,090 4,076 4,078 2 144 476
Jul-19 – – – 4,091 4,083 4,091 8 0 14
Sep-19 4,143 4,178 4,141 4,174 4,144 4,163 19 156 224
Corn
Turnover: 586,562 lots, or 10.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,748 1,758 1,739 1,750 1,743 1,746 3 26,548 113,076
Jul-18 1,738 1,747 1,736 1,743 1,740 1,741 1 326,380 475,356
Sep-18 1,744 1,751 1,741 1,748 1,746 1,745 -1 219,384 938,118
Nov-18 1,763 1,778 1,763 1,771 1,767 1,773 6 1,084 1,056
Jan-19 1,782 1,789 1,781 1,786 1,783 1,785 2 12,608 115,814
Mar-19 1,784 1,796 1,783 1,795 1,786 1,791 5 558 1,584
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,894,334 lots, or 93.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,172 3,209 3,162 3,175 3,189 3,179 -10 97,428 147,742
Jul-18 3,201 3,231 3,180 3,203 3,221 3,201 -20 407,486 313,384
Aug-18 3,208 3,250 3,205 3,225 3,225 3,220 -5 50 584
Sep-18 3,220 3,261 3,206 3,229 3,229 3,230 1 1,920,024 3,152,404
Nov-18 3,210 3,265 3,205 3,234 3,218 3,231 13 742 3,024
Dec-18 3,209 3,249 3,209 3,241 3,226 3,235 9 34 444
Jan-19 3,234 3,284 3,218 3,260 3,231 3,255 24 467,882 679,116
Mar-19 3,208 3,257 3,200 3,234 3,213 3,225 12 688 2,408
Palm Oil
Turnover: 285,204 lots, or 14.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,034 5,034 5,034 0 0 0
May-18 5,022 5,060 5,014 5,046 5,048 5,046 -2 51,616 64,534
Jun-18 – – – 5,242 5,242 5,242 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,192 5,192 5,192 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,058 5,074 5,042 5,058 5,086 5,056 -30 222,502 457,358
Oct-18 – – – 5,128 5,128 5,128 0 0 4
Nov-18 5,104 5,104 5,104 5,104 5,158 5,104 -54 4 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,182 5,236 5,182 -54 0 0
Jan-19 5,088 5,114 5,074 5,100 5,108 5,096 -12 11,082 54,700
Feb-19 – – – 5,200 5,200 5,200 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 454,586 lots, or 26.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,688 5,702 5,658 5,692 5,716 5,684 -32 45,284 131,432
Jul-18 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 84
Aug-18 5,900 5,900 5,782 5,808 5,930 5,834 -96 80 14
Sep-18 5,840 5,852 5,808 5,844 5,874 5,834 -40 384,518 853,580
Nov-18 5,958 5,958 5,906 5,906 6,056 5,928 -128 16 26
Dec-18 – – – 6,020 6,020 6,020 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,972 5,994 5,952 5,984 6,016 5,974 -42 24,688 94,100
Mar-19 – – – 6,092 6,134 6,092 -42 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322