About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 12
For the week ended Apr 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 120.7 68.0 23038.1 27239.0 3710.7 1146.4
hrw 73.4 14.1 9053.9 11259.0 901.0 240.9
srw 10.7 11.5 2416.4 2409.2 497.4 230.6
hrs 9.4 34.5 6005.1 8387.7 1298.7 386.3
white 27.2 2.9 5189.2 4676.3 947.8 227.1
durum 0.0 5.0 373.6 506.9 65.9 61.5
corn 839.9 56.0 48193.1 49299.7 22051.9 1926.0
soybeans 1510.5 954.0 52994.7 55489.8 10996.5 3319.3
soymeal 317.4 0.0 9426.3 8731.9 3420.6 169.4
soyoil 22.0 0.0 715.0 790.8 282.3 0.8
upland cotton 179.4 28.7 15052.4 12882.3 6583.4 2851.6
pima cotton 0.9 0.2 563.4 572.6 138.5 44.0
sorghum 8.7 0.0 5219.3 4039.8 879.9 0.0
barley 0.5 0.0 40.0 25.4 11.1 39.4
rice 20.6 0.0 2410.9 2953.1 474.3 8.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Shipment Totals-Apr 12
For the week ended Apr 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Export shipments do not include those for own
account.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
USDA Proj
Export shipments Accum shipments
this wk last wk this yr last yr this yr
wheat 436.4 428.1 19327.4 21479.4 25180
hrw 151.1 292.7 8152.9 9287.6 NA
srw 47.7 39.5 1919.0 1917.4 NA
hrs 152.4 38.9 4706.4 6569.3 NA
white 85.2 57.0 4241.4 3328.6 NA
durum 0.0 0.0 307.7 376.6 NA
corn 1912.1 1265.7 26141.2 33204.2 56520
soybeans 419.7 579.8 41998.2 48139.7 56200
soymeal 297.4 190.8 6005.7 5883.5 11250
soyoil 2.9 18.8 432.7 678.9 860
upland cotton 499.6 452.4 8469.0 8759.8 13740
pima cotton 12.5 28.6 424.9 427.0 630
sorghum 197.0 173.1 4339.4 3146.0 6220
barley 1.2 0.6 28.9 17.1 130
rice 102.5 76.3 1936.6 2383.7 3180

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were a little lower yesterday in quiet trading as demand concerns returned to the market. USDA showed increased ending stocks for the US in its monthly updates yesterday, with feed demand cut due to relatively high Wheat prices in the Great Plains and Midwest. USDA also showed plenty of supplies in the world, something that has been ongoing all year. World prices remain somewhat below those of the US, so export demand should remain relatively hard to find. The Winter Wheat crop is out of dormancy and is trying to develop, but it remains too dry and temperatures have been either very warm or very cold. Forecasts still call for dry weather in Texas and Oklahoma and it is dry again in Kansas. There is no real relief in sight as temperatures are warmer in the eastern two-thirds of the US this week. It should be cold again this weekend and early next week. Rains are badly needed in the western Great Plains. USDA showed generally poor crop ratings in its initial crop progress and condition reports this week, and the crop seems to be regressing as condition ratings were worse than the previous week. The daily charts for all three markets show stability in prices, and the charts also imply that prices could go higher over time. Minneapolis is also starting to turn to up trends as the weather remains very cold in Canada and the northern Great Plains. Farmers want to start on fieldwork, but the cold temperatures have made that an impossible task. .
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see Snow and rain over the next few days, then dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 503 May. Support is at 482, 478, and 475 May, with resistance at 494, 498, and 510 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 534 and 587 May. Support is at 509, 507, and 499 May, with resistance at 530, 531, and 533 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 620, 613, and 610 May, and resistance is at 634, 636, and 640 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was little changed yesterday. Farmers are planting along the Gulf Coast and are trying to get the last of the crop in. It remains too cool for many to plant farther to the north in Arkansas, but some fieldwork is underway. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. The situation might not get much better next year. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. Planting other crops such as Soybeans or Cotton could mean better returns for some producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather this week and big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal early in the week and above normal late in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1290 and 1330 May. Support is at 1260, 1254, and 1252 May, with resistance at 1293, 1295, and 1307 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower on follow through selling tied to the USDA supply and demand estimates. USDA cut its Feed demand and also trimmed some of the industrial demand to make up for the increased stocks. USDA also cut Argentine production and might need to cut these estimates more in coming reports. Brazil production estimates were high as the Winter Corn crop starts to develop, but production was cut as nota ll of the Winter Corn will get planted. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures, but there have not been any announcements of sales on the daily reporting system so far this week. Weather in the Midwest remains too cold, and it has been very wet in southern production areas. Fieldwork has been stalled in almost all areas. It has finally turned warmer in the Midwest, and some initial fieldwork might finally be possible. Cool and wet conditions are expected this weekend, but temperatures should moderate again next week. The market focus will move more from old crop to new crop from now on as traders start to monitor new crop progress and condition along with the old crop demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 393, 410, and 430 May. Support is at 386, 381, and 378 May, and resistance is at 390, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 244 and 255 May. Support is at 234, 231, and 230 May, and resistance is at 24, 245, and 249 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher most of the day as Mexico and Argentina bought US Soybeans. However, the market could not hold the gains and closed lower as no one is sure what is going on in Washington in its potential trade war with China and in its war of words with Russia and Syria. Soy products also closed lower. Reports from Brazil indicate that basis levels for export were stable yesterday after dropping the first part of the week on reports of farm selling by Brazil producers and on the Argentine purchase of US Soybeans. Argentina bought more yesterday, and has now bought 240,000 tons of US Soybeans so far this week. Domestic reports indicate that some US producers were also selling Soybeans yesterday. Other buyers have appeared in the US market as the price spread between Brazil and the US has grown very wide in cash markets. US farmers are trying to get fieldwork started, but it has either been too cold or too wet for many producers to get started. The weather seems to be moderating overall, but it will still take time for the fields to warm and dry so good fieldwork can begin.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1085 May. Support is at 1038, 1034, and 1030 May, and resistance is at 1060, 1064, and 1070 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 393.00, 410.00, and 413.00 May. Support is at 376.00, 369.00, and 368.00 May, and resistance is at 390.00, 393.00, and 400.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 3280 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on currency considerations and Chicago price action. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt the buyers and created some late selling in the market. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower on selling tied to the bearish production data from MPOB. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 538.00 and 555.00 May. Support is at 522.00, 517.00, and 515.00 May, with resistance at 527.00, 531.00, and 534.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2530 and 2600 June. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2460, 2520, and 2540 June.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : March
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.49 mil tonnes, Up 11.3%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.27 mil tonnes, Down 8.6%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 17.2%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.32 mil tonnes, Down 6.2%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.34 mil tonnes, Down 15.4%
Exports – 1.31 mil tonnes, Down 13.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.48 mil tonnes, Down 2.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation late this week and again over the weekend, Temperatures mostly below normal early in the week and over the weekend and above normal late in the week. Below normal again starting late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 62 May 160 May 65 May 69 May 25-May
May 50 May 65 May 68 May
June 51 July 50 July 50 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 135 May 110 July
May 135 May plus 7 May 85 September August
June 135 July plus 1 July 83 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Argentina Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn Wheat-12%
Upriver Upriver Upriver
May plus 110 Mar $167.00
June minus 17 Jan plus 115 Mar $168.00
July minus 18 Mar plus 120 Mar $173.00

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 11
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 515.10 dn 3.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 538.40 dn 3.70
2 Can 525.40 dn 3.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 561.40 dn 3.70
2 Can 548.40 dn 3.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge n/a n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge n/a n/a
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 660.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,435 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 236 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.8758)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,048 lots, or 7.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,855 3,868 3,840 3,851 3,859 3,855 -4 35,752 87,008
Jul-18 3,906 3,957 3,899 3,934 3,921 3,925 4 16 108
Sep-18 3,975 3,995 3,955 3,964 3,978 3,976 -2 145,074 191,310
Nov-18 – – – 3,996 3,996 3,996 0 0 0
Jan-19 4,011 4,022 3,993 3,998 4,013 4,008 -5 2,758 7,772
Mar-19 – – – 4,051 4,083 4,051 -32 0 2
May-19 4,071 4,089 4,055 4,063 4,066 4,076 10 214 452
Jul-19 4,065 4,105 4,065 4,105 4,060 4,083 23 34 14
Sep-19 4,103 4,161 4,103 4,134 4,131 4,144 13 200 144
Corn
Turnover: 1,012,450 lots, or 17.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,745 1,748 1,738 1,744 1,755 1,743 -12 47,802 121,834
Jul-18 1,743 1,744 1,737 1,737 1,749 1,740 -9 635,800 491,678
Sep-18 1,747 1,752 1,742 1,744 1,751 1,746 -5 305,424 926,704
Nov-18 1,765 1,769 1,764 1,768 1,770 1,767 -3 36 790
Jan-19 1,784 1,789 1,779 1,782 1,783 1,783 0 23,256 116,950
Mar-19 1,785 1,792 1,785 1,785 1,788 1,786 -2 132 1,808
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,558,202 lots, or 82.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,237 3,237 3,170 3,172 3,211 3,189 -22 117,072 179,196
Jul-18 3,248 3,251 3,196 3,197 3,246 3,221 -25 418,366 302,646
Aug-18 3,233 3,240 3,102 3,168 3,232 3,225 -7 62 584
Sep-18 3,251 3,253 3,213 3,220 3,237 3,229 -8 1,697,642 3,061,478
Nov-18 3,218 3,234 3,203 3,216 3,229 3,218 -11 1,626 3,026
Dec-18 3,235 3,237 3,215 3,217 3,214 3,226 12 36 416
Jan-19 3,249 3,250 3,215 3,234 3,226 3,231 5 322,586 631,298
Mar-19 3,216 3,236 3,201 3,214 3,210 3,213 3 812 2,398
Palm Oil
Turnover: 412,974 lots, or 21.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,034 5,034 5,034 0 0 0
May-18 5,090 5,090 5,004 5,004 5,080 5,048 -32 40,832 83,996
Jun-18 – – – 5,242 5,242 5,242 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,192 5,224 5,192 -32 0 0
Aug-18 5,158 5,158 5,096 5,096 5,160 5,126 -34 8 10
Sep-18 5,126 5,130 5,032 5,036 5,126 5,086 -40 350,300 461,360
Oct-18 5,178 5,178 5,082 5,130 5,178 5,128 -50 36 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,158 5,208 5,158 -50 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 5,236 5,286 5,236 -50 0 0
Jan-19 5,140 5,156 5,070 5,070 5,148 5,108 -40 21,798 52,652
Feb-19 – – – 5,200 5,200 5,200 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,146 5,108 -38 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 561,914 lots, or 32.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,760 5,760 5,670 5,670 5,774 5,716 -58 60,654 142,424
Jul-18 5,786 5,810 5,782 5,782 5,900 5,786 -114 26 84
Aug-18 – – – 5,930 6,046 5,930 -116 0 10
Sep-18 5,900 5,914 5,824 5,830 5,934 5,874 -60 475,848 836,706
Nov-18 – – – 6,056 6,116 6,056 -60 0 22
Dec-18 6,040 6,040 6,002 6,002 6,088 6,020 -68 4 0
Jan-19 6,052 6,052 5,968 5,972 6,062 6,016 -46 25,382 93,366
Mar-19 – – – 6,134 6,180 6,134 -46 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018