Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday after USDA cut US and world ending stocks estimates. There is talk of less production in India due to pest infestations, but USDA left its numbers unchanged. The market is still dealing with the potential for less demand from China.. China is a good buyer of US Cotton as it uses the high quality US product to blend with its own production. The US also sells a lot of Cotton to Southeast Asia and some of this makes its way to China in the form of finished products. Ideas are that sales to Southeast Asia could increase if China increases tariffs on US imports as Chinese buyers would turn to these other countries for supplies. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton. It is drier in the Delta and Texas after some big rains that hit again in the second half of last week, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast. The drier Delta and Southeast weather will be welcome after some big rains in recent days. Warmer temperatures would be beneficial. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the recent carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get drier weather this week and big rains this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 79.77 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,823 bales, from 79,345 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8230, 8070, and 7860 May, with resistance of 8380, 8410, and 8550 May.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Apr 10
U.S.Cotton Supply and Use
Item 2016/17 2017/18
prev Apr 10 prev Apr 10
Planted 10.07 10.07 12.61 12.61
Harvested 9.51 9.51 11.35 11.35
Yield per harv. acre 867.00 867.00 889.00 889.00
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.80 3.80 2.75 2.75
Production 17.17 17.17 21.03 21.03
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 20.98 20.98 23.79 23.79
Domestic use 3.25 3.25 3.35 3.35
Exports 14.92 14.92 14.80 15.00
Use, total 18.17 18.17 18.15 18.35
Unaccounted 0.06 0.06 0.14 0.14
Ending stocks 2.75 2.75 5.50 5.30
Avg. farm price 68.00 68.00 68.00 – 70.00 67.00 – 69.00
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Apr 10
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
Mar 87.70 121.94 38.83 120.79 38.83 0.00 88.85
Apr 86.80 122.18 39.05 120.39 39.06 0.30 88.29
Mar 2.75 21.03 0.01 3.35 14.80 0.14 5.50
Apr 2.75 21.03 0.01 3.35 15.00 0.14 5.30
Mar 84.95 100.91 38.82 117.44 24.03 -0.14 83.35
Apr 84.05 101.15 39.04 117.04 24.06 0.16 82.99
Mar 26.55 54.53 2.46 32.94 20.33 -0.28 30.56
Apr 25.65 55.22 2.41 32.64 20.51 0.02 30.12
Mar 56.78 42.89 33.87 80.39 2.37 0.09 50.70
Apr 56.78 42.90 34.12 80.34 2.37 0.09 51.01
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower as USDA left its Florida oranges production estimates unchanged. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering is mostly over, and fruit is forming and starting to develop. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 135.00, and 134.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 143.00 May.
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits – Apr 10
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
2014-15 and Forecasted April 1, 2018 1/
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
Utilized Production Utilized Production
Boxes/1 Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ——————————————————————
2016-2017 2017-2018 2016-2017 2017-2018
—— 1,000 Boxes 2/ —– ——- 1,000 Tons ——-
California, all 48,300 44,500 1,932 1,780
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 39,300 35,000 1,572 1,400
Valencia 9,000 9,500 360 380
Florida, all 68,850 45,000 3,098 2,025
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 33,000 19,000 1,485 855
Valencia 35,850 26,000 1,613 1,170
Texas, all 2/ 1,370 2,110 58 90
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 1,090 1,550 46 66
Valencia 280 560 12 24
United States, all 118,520 91,610 5,088 3,895
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 73,390 55,550 3,103 2,321
Valencia 45,130 36,060 1,985 1,574
California 4,400 4,000 176 160
Florida, all 7,760 4,000 330 170
Red 6,280 3,250 267 138
White 1,480 750 63 32
Texas 4,800 5,700 192 228
United States 16,960 13,700 698 558
Tangerines and mandarins 3/
California 23,900 21,000 956 840
Florida 1,620 770 77 37
United States 25,520 21,770 1,033 877
Arizona 1,650 1,300 66 52
California 20,500 20,500 820 820
United States 22,150 21,800 886 872
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in
California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80,
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason
varieties in Florida and Texas.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
General Comments Futures in New York were a little lower in quiet trading. London was also lower. Trends are still sideways to down on the charts, but the bear side of the market might be losing some of its force right now. Funds and other speculators were net sellers and industry is the best buyer. Traders still sense the underlying interest in buying the market due to the industry buying, but the buy side of the market has not shown interest in pushing prices higher. They have been able to let the speculators come to their price level. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady last week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.954 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 121.00, 122.00 and 124.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1640 May, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.
DJ Brazil Exported 2.5 Million Bags of Coffee in March — Cecafe
By Jeffrey Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in March from a year earlier as sales abroad of the arabica variety declined again, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 2.5 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 10.9% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Tuesday.
Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 12.5% to 2.1 million bags, while exports of robusta beans more than tripled to 62,807 bags, from 20,626 bags in the same month a year earlier.
The Brazilian state of Espírito Santo, Brazil’s main grower of the robusta beans, is recovering from a drought that slashed production of the variety. Exports are rising again after rains returned and production has increased.
Exports of roasted, ground and instant coffee fell 12.8% in March to 327,939 bags, Cecafe said.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at email@example.com
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London, and both markets made new contract lows. Trends are down in both markets. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. UNICA showed a big production increase for Brazil, and this was the reason for the big selling yesterday. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India will export up to 4.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government there is reducing or eliminating export taxes in an effort to promote selling in world markets and now might pay its producers so they can have a profit. It has a significant surplus after several years of lower production. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1180 and 1120 July. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1140 July, and resistance is at 1240, 1270, and 1280 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 332.00 and 328.00 August. Support is at 331.00, 328.00, and 325.00 August, and resistance is at 342.00, 346.00, and 348.00 August.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Sugar – Apr 10
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use
Item 2016/17 2017/18
prev Apr 10 prev Apr 10
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2,054 2,054 1,876 1,876
Production 8,969 8,969 9,240 9,140
Beet sugar 5,103 5,103 5,219 5,139
Cane sugar 3,866 3,866 4,021 4,001
Florida 2,055 2,055 1,992 1,973
Hawaii 43 43 0 0
Louisiana 1,628 1,628 1,859 1,859
Texas 140 140 170 170
Imports 3,244 3,244 3,467 3,472
TRQ 1,611 1,611 1,788 1,788
Other program 419 419 400 400
Other 1,213 1,213 1,279 1,284
Mexico 1,201 1,201 1,269 1,269
Total supply 14,267 14,267 14,583 14,489
Exports 95 95 150 150
Deliveries 12,258 12,258 12,480 12,480
Food 12,102 12,102 12,325 12,325
Other 156 156 155 155
Miscellaneous 38 38 0 0
Total use 12,391 12,391 12,630 12,630
Ending stocks 1,876 1,876 1,953 1,859
Stocks to use ratio 15.1 15.1 15.5 14.7
General Comments Futures were lower in consolidation trading. The market is starting to look ahead at the next round of quarterly grind reports. The reports should show a slight increase in demand for Cocoa beans for processing. Grinders are making good money in the processing right now and will be looking for any beans they can find. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.006 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 May. Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2340 May, with resistance at 2530, 2550, and 2600 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1630 and 1610 May. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1750, 1800, and 1830 May.