About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Tuesday and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2017-18 Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar. USDA 2016-17
Corn 2,182.0 2,192 2,050-2,265 2,127 2,293
Soybeans 550.0 570 520-609 555 302
Wheat 1,064.0 1,040 1,010-1,080 1,034 1,181
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar. USDA 2016-17
Corn 197.8 197.0 191.5-202.0 199.2 230.9
Soybeans 90.8 92.9 91.0-96.0 94.4 96.7
Wheat 271.2 268.4 266.5-270.0 268.9 254.6
***
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar. USDA 2016-17
Corn 92.0 92.2 86.5-96.0 94.5 98.5
Soybeans 115.0 115.6 113.3-118.0 113.0 114.1
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Mar. USDA 2016-17
Corn 33.0 33.5 31.0-36.0 36.0 41.0
Soybeans 40.0 42.3 39.0-45.0 47.0 57.8

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Apr 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 550 302 197 :150.40 147.46 132.56 334.81 350.76 313.77
Brazil na na : 73.10 63.14 54.38 115.00 114.10 96.50
Argentina na na : 4.20 7.03 9.92 40.00 57.80 56.80
China na na : 0.15 0.11 0.11 14.20 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 1,966 1,711 1,687 : 10.61 11.29 11.77 55.74 53.86 51.56
Corn 2,182 2,293 1,737 :152.57 159.78 119.74 1,036.07 1,075.49 972.21
China na na : 0.05 0.08 0.00 215.89 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na : 24.00 25.99 21.64 33.00 41.00 29.50
S. Africa na na : 1.70 2.20 0.84 13.20 17.55 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.30 2.75 3.80 : 39.06 37.53 34.97 122.18 106.76 96.20
All Wheat 1,064 1,181 976 :182.01 183.28 172.84 759.75 750.68 735.21
China na na : 1.00 0.75 0.73 129.77 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na : 24.00 27.32 34.69 151.60 145.25 160.48
Canada na na : 22.50 20.16 22.11 30.00 31.73 27.59
Argentina na na : 12.80 13.83 9.60 18.00 18.40 11.30
Australia na na : 16.00 22.64 16.12 21.50 30.36 22.28
Russia na na : 38.50 27.81 25.54 84.99 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na : 17.20 18.11 17.43 26.98 26.79 27.27
Sorghum 29 33 37 : na na na
Barley 65 106 102 : na na na
Oats 22 50 57 : na na na
Rice 33.3 46.0 46.5 : 48.14 47.39 40.34 487.46 486.15 472.94

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mixed at the close after trading higher much of the day. USDA showed increased ending stocks for the US in its monthly updates yesterday, but this was mostly expected after the higher than expected quarterly stocks released at the end of last month. USDA also showed plenty of supplies in the world, something that has been ongoing all year. The Winter Wheat crop is out of dormancy and is trying to develop, but it remains too dry and temperatures have been either very warm or very cold. Forecasts still call for dry weather in Texas and Oklahoma and it is dry again in Kansas. There is no real relief in sight as temperatures finally turn warmer in the eastern two-thirds of the US this week. It should be cold again this weekend and next week. USDA showed generally poor crop ratings in its initial crop progress and condition reports this week, and the crop seems to be regressing as condition ratings were worse than the previous week. The daily charts for all three markets show stability in prices, and the charts for HRW are showing potential for up trends. The weekly charts still show weakness, but the markets seem to be cheap enough due to the ongoing weather problems in the Great Plains. Minneapolis is also starting to turn to at least sideways trends as the weather remains very cold in Canada and the northern Great Plains. Farmers want to start on fieldwork, but the cold temperatures have made that an impossible task. The Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains look to stay cold this week and snow is possible early in the week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see Snow and rain over the next few days, then dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 503 May. Support is at 482, 478, and 475 May, with resistance at 498, 510, and 518 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 534 and 587 May. Support is at 511, 507, and 499 May, with resistance at 530, 531, and 533 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 620, 613, and 610 May, and resistance is at 630, 634, and 636 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in response to disappointing supply and demand estimates from USDA. USDA increased US ending stocks estimates by cutting export demand for the most part. World ending stocks levels were also increased. USDA did leave the average farm price at steady to higher levels for long grain and rough rice.. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. The situation might not get much better next year. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. Planting other crops such as Soybeans or Cotton could mean better returns for some producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather this week and big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal early in the week and above normal late in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1290 and 1330 May. Support is at 1260, 1254, and 1252 May, with resistance at 1293, 1295, and 1307 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 11
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.58 10.61 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.21 10.97 0.00
Broken 10.00 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower in reaction to the USDA supply and demand estimates. USDA increased ending stocks levels, but this was mostly expected after USDA showed higher quarterly stocks at the end of last month. USDA cut its Feed demand and also trimmed some of the industrial demand to make up for the increased stocks. USDA also cut Argentine production and might need to cut these estimates more in coming reports. Brazil production estimates were high as the Winter Corn crop starts to develop.. Strong domestic and export demand ideas helped support futures in early trading. Weather in the Midwest remains too cold, and it has been very wet in southern production areas. Fieldwork has been stalled in almost all areas. It will finally turn warmer in the Midwest over the second half of this week, and some initial fieldwork might finally be possible. The market focus will move more from old crop to new crop from now on as traders start to monitor new crop progress and condition along with the old crop demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 393, 410, and 430 May. Support is at 389, 386, and 381 May, and resistance is at 393, 395, and 400 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 231, 230, and 227 May, and resistance is at 238, 242, and 245 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher in early trading on news that Argentina, China, and unknown destinations had bought US Soybeans. However, the market could not hold the gains even with a slight cut to ending stocks estimates by USDA. Soybeans and Soybean Oil finished higher, but soybean Meal finished lower. Reports from Brazil indicate that basis levels for export dropped yesterday on reports of farm selling by Brazil producers and on the Argentine purchase of US Soybeans. Domestic reports indicate that some US producers were also selling Soybeans yesterday. Other buyers have appeared in the US market as the price spread between Brazil and the US has grown very wide in cash markets. Daily sales announcements have been seen for the last couple of days as end users and crusher look to buy cheaper US Soybeans. USDA also cut Argentine production estimates by a large amount as it faced the reality of the situation down there as drought has decimated the crop. Brazil production estimates remained high, but some observers there expect USDA to increase production estimates even more once the harvest is complete.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 141,518 tons of US Soybeans. Argentina bought another 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1085 May. Support is at 1038, 1034, and 1030 May, and resistance is at 1064, 1070, and 1082 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 393.00, 410.00, and 413.00 May. Support is at 384.00, 376.00, and 369.00 May, and resistance is at 393.00, 400.00, and 404.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 32580 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on currency considerations. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt the buyers and created some late selling in the market. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower on selling tied to the bearish production data from MPOB. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 538.00 and 555.00 May. Support is at 527.00, 522.00, and 517.00 May, with resistance at 531.00, 534.00, and 538.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2530 and 2600 June. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2460, 2520, and 2540 June.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : March
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.49 mil tonnes, Up 11.3%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.27 mil tonnes, Down 8.6%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 17.2%
Exports – 1.57 mil tonnes, Up 19.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.32 mil tonnes, Down 6.2%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.34 mil tonnes, Down 15.4%
Exports – 1.31 mil tonnes, Down 13.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.48 mil tonnes, Down 2.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation late this week and again over the weekend, Temperatures mostly below normal early in the week and over the weekend and above normal late in the week. Below normal again starting late this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 59 May 160 May 60 May 70 May 25-May
May 58 May 60 May 70 May
June 51 July 48 July 60 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 135 May
May 135 May
June 135 July minus 2 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 519.00 dn 0.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 542.10 dn 3.90
2 Can 529.10 dn 3.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 565.10 dn 3.90
2 Can 552.10 dn 3.90
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge n/a n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge n/a n/a
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 662.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 577.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,440 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 239 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.8730)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 180,772 lots, or 7.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,861 3,883 3,841 3,856 3,877 3,859 -18 37,626 94,704
Jul-18 3,932 3,933 3,899 3,913 3,928 3,921 -7 16 106
Sep-18 3,993 4,005 3,956 3,972 3,998 3,978 -20 140,158 185,948
Nov-18 4,009 4,023 3,957 3,957 4,050 3,996 -54 6 0
Jan-19 4,013 4,036 3,993 4,013 4,039 4,013 -26 2,774 7,506
Mar-19 – – – 4,083 4,083 4,083 0 0 2
May-19 4,068 4,082 4,057 4,061 4,091 4,066 -25 154 422
Jul-19 4,076 4,078 4,037 4,037 4,065 4,060 -5 14 34
Sep-19 4,123 4,136 4,123 4,125 4,142 4,131 -11 24 52
Corn
Turnover: 1,093,192 lots, or 19.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,753 1,762 1,748 1,753 1,764 1,755 -9 33,678 139,898
Jul-18 1,750 1,753 1,746 1,749 1,752 1,749 -3 834,362 477,408
Sep-18 1,750 1,755 1,747 1,751 1,751 1,751 0 203,904 970,540
Nov-18 1,769 1,773 1,769 1,773 1,776 1,770 -6 52 788
Jan-19 1,781 1,787 1,778 1,786 1,782 1,783 1 21,112 119,258
Mar-19 1,787 1,791 1,786 1,791 1,786 1,788 2 84 1,758
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,492,166 lots, or 11.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,220 3,233 3,185 3,222 3,261 3,211 -50 107,696 221,362
Jul-18 3,235 3,260 3,210 3,245 3,300 3,246 -54 479,042 297,962
Aug-18 3,224 3,248 3,224 3,248 3,297 3,232 -65 26 582
Sep-18 3,250 3,263 3,207 3,247 3,289 3,237 -52 2,380,494 3,024,840
Nov-18 3,238 3,252 3,205 3,244 3,293 3,229 -64 700 2,198
Dec-18 3,241 3,255 3,196 3,255 3,306 3,214 -92 134 396
Jan-19 3,235 3,254 3,191 3,246 3,283 3,226 -57 522,988 611,978
Mar-19 3,223 3,231 3,181 3,222 3,272 3,210 -62 1,086 2,158
Palm Oil
Turnover: 355,568 lots, or 18.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,034 5,034 5,034 0 0 0
May-18 5,100 5,100 5,062 5,082 5,114 5,080 -34 38,706 93,702
Jun-18 – – – 5,242 5,242 5,242 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,224 5,224 5,224 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,160 5,194 5,160 -34 0 10
Sep-18 5,126 5,146 5,104 5,118 5,160 5,126 -34 299,152 448,060
Oct-18 5,220 5,224 5,078 5,186 5,220 5,178 -42 78 12
Nov-18 – – – 5,208 5,208 5,208 0 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 5,286 5,328 5,286 -42 0 0
Jan-19 5,158 5,170 5,126 5,138 5,170 5,148 -22 17,632 59,710
Feb-19 – – – 5,200 5,200 5,200 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 597,422 lots, or 35.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,796 5,820 5,728 5,740 5,796 5,774 -22 69,796 157,106
Jul-18 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 98
Aug-18 – – – 6,046 6,068 6,046 -22 0 10
Sep-18 5,940 5,986 5,888 5,900 5,960 5,934 -26 493,598 823,156
Nov-18 – – – 6,116 6,142 6,116 -26 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 6,088 6,114 6,088 -26 0 2
Jan-19 6,080 6,116 6,030 6,040 6,094 6,062 -32 34,024 93,902
Mar-19 6,270 6,270 6,092 6,092 6,162 6,180 18 4 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018