Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 8-Apr 1-Apr 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 7 7 6 5
Corn Planted 2 3 2
Sorghum Planted 17 9 18 15
Rice Planted 21 17 29 22
Rice Emerged 11 6 12 8
Sugar beets Planted 1 4 5
Oats Planted 27 26 32 34
Oats Emerged 25 25 26 27
Winter Wheat Headed 3 8 4
Spring Wheat Planted 2 4 6
Barley Planted 4 8 12
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 14 21 35 26 4
Winter Wheat Last Week 11 19 38 28 4
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 10 34 46 7
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday, but old crop values fell from the bet levels as traders prepared for the USDA monthly supply and demand updates that will be released later this morning. USDA showed very little planting progress in its weekly updates last night. Little progress is likely early this week. The market is still dealing with the potential for less demand from China.. China is a good buyer of US Cotton as it uses the high quality US product to blend with its own production. The US also sells a lot of Cotton to Southeast Asia and some of this makes its way to China in the form of finished products. US farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton. It is drier in the Delta and Texas after some big rains that hit again in the second half of last week, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast. The drier Delta and Southeast weather will be welcome after some big rains in recent days. Warmer temperatures would be beneficial. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the recent carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get periods of precipitation early this week and drier weather later this week. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 79.19 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 66,814 bales, from 82,337 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8230, 8070, and 7860 May, with resistance of 8380, 8410, and 8550 May.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Apr 6 2018 13:10:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as nine analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on April 10. Figures are in millions of bales.
|——Survey Results——–| USDA
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | March | 2016-17
US Production | 21.00| 20.85| 21.03| 21.03| 17.17
US Exports | 15.16| 14.60| 15.50| 14.80| 14.92
US End Stocks | 5.14| 4.62| 5.70| 5.50| 2.75
World | | | | |
Production | 121.66| 120.70| 122.00| 121.94| 106.80
World | | | | |
Consumption | 120.95| 120.50| 121.50| 120.79| 114.81
World End | | | | |
Stocks | 88.22| 87.00| 88.85| 88.85| 87.70
Analyst |————U.S.————| ——World—-
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 21.00| 15.50| 4.90| 120.70| 121.00| 87.00
Doane | 21.03| 15.30| 5.00| 122.00| 121.50| 87.50
Love Consulting | 21.03| 15.00| 5.30| 122.00| 121.00| 88.50
Price Futures Group| 21.00| 15.00| 5.30|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 21.00| 15.00| 5.20| 121.10| 120.50| 88.30
Rose Consulting | 21.03| 15.50| 4.93| 121.75| 121.10| 88.35
Texas A&M; Robinson| 21.03| 15.00| 5.30| 121.94| 120.79| 88.85
Varner Bros. | 20.85| 15.50| 4.62| 121.80| 120.80| 88.75
Wedbush Securities | 21.00| 14.60| 5.70| 122.00| 120.90| 88.50
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher on some short covering before the next USDA citrus production estimates that will be released later today. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. USDA should highlight the short crop when it releases its citrus reports tomorrow. It last estimated the crop at 45 million boxes and there is no real reason to expect any big changes to that estimate. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering is mostly over, and fruit is forming and starting to develop. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 135.00, and 134.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 143.00 May.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Apr 6 2018 13:30:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of three analysts about the 2017-18
Florida orange crop. The USDA will release their estimate at
noon in Washington on April 10. Figures are in millions of 90-lb
Summary of Results: | Output
Survey Avg | 46.7
Survey Range | 44-51
USDA March Estimate | 45.0
USDA 2016-17 Crop | 68.75
Analyst Estimates: |
Price Futures Group | 45.0
Optionsellers.com | 51.0
Infinity Trading | 44.0
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments Futures in New York were a little higher in recovery trading. London was also higher. Trends are still sideways to down on the charts, but the bear side of the market might be losing some of its force right now. Funds and other speculators were on both sides of the market and industry is the best buyer. Traders still sense the underlying interest in buying the market due to the industry buying, but the buy side of the market has not shown interest in pushing prices higher. They have been able to let the speculators come to their price level. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Good business is getting done and exports are active. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Vietnamese cash prices were steady last week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly higher today and are about 1.950 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.28 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 121.00, 122.00 and 124.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1670 May, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.
General Comments: Futures were mixed to mostly lower for the week in both New York and London. Trends are down in both markets. The fundamentals remain little changed, and there does not seem to be much for now that can shake the market out of its current trend. Traders hear about big production from the world producers and little in the way of special demand that could absorb some of the surplus. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India will export up to 4.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government there is reducing or eliminating export taxes in an effort to promote selling in world markets. It has a significant surplus after several years of lower production. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1180 and 1120 July. Support is at 1230, 1200, and 1170 July, and resistance is at 1270, 1280, and 1300 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 332.00 August. Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 334.00 August, and resistance is at 346.00, 348.00, and 352.00 August.
• 10-Apr-2018 09:00:33 AM – BRAZIL CENTER-SOUTH SUGAR OUTPUT 173,000 TNS IN 2ND HALF OF MARCH VS 47,000 TNS IN 1ST HALF OF MARCH – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:00:33 AM – BRAZIL CENTER-SOUTH CANE CRUSH 7.758 MLN TNS IN 2ND HALF OF MARCH VS 3.335 MLN TNS IN 1ST HALF OF MARCH – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:00:33 AM – BRAZIL CENTER-SOUTH ETHANOL OUTPUT 429 MLN LITERS IN 2ND HALF OF MARCH VS 183 MLN L IN 1ST HALF OF MARCH – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:02:15 AM – BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH CLOSES 2017/18 CANE CROP WITH TOTAL CRUSH OF 596 MLN TNS VS 607 MLN TNS IN 2016/17 – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:02:38 AM – BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH ENDS 2017/18 CANE CROP PRODUCING TOTAL OF 36.05 MLN TNS OF SUGAR VS 35.62 MLN TNS IN 2016/17 – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:02:59 AM – BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH CLOSES 2017/18 CROP WITH TOTAL ETHANOL OUTPUT OF 26.09 BLN LITERS VS 25.65 BLN L IN PREVIOUS CROP – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:03:22 AM – BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH ALLOCATED 46.46 PCT OF CANE TO SUGAR PRODUCTION IN THE 2017/18 CROP VS 46.29 PCT IN PREVIOUS SEASON – UNICA
• 10-Apr-2018 09:05:25 AM – UNICA SAYS 78 MILLS WERE OPERATING IN THE 2ND HALF OF MARCH VS 84 SEEN IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST SEASON
• 10-Apr-2018 09:06:21 AM – UNICA EXPECTS 200 MILLS TO BE OPERATIONAL IN BRAZIL’S CENTER-SOUTH BY MID-APRIL
• 10-Apr-2018 09:07:31 AM – UNICA SAYS SUGAR CONTENT IN THE 2017/18 SEASON REACHED 136.6 KG/TONNE, LARGEST SINCE 2011/12 CROP
• 10-Apr-2018 09:09:21 AM – UNICA SAYS DOMESTIC SALES OF HYDROUS ETHANOL IN MARCH REACHED 1.4 BLN LITERS, 32 PCT HIGHER THAN SEEN IN MARCH 2017
• 10-Apr-2018 09:12:12 AM – UNICA SAYS CORN-BASED ETHANOL PRODUCTION ROSE 123 PCT IN THE 2017/18 CROP TO 521 MLN LITERS
General Comments Futures were sharply higher yesterday as the mi crop harvest expands and as traders look for variable yield reports. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally, and ideas of strong demand from processors remains the other part of the rally. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet, but estimates from the country imply that variable yields can be expected. The harvest should begin soon in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 4.970 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 May. Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2340 May, with resistance at 2490, 2550, and 2600 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1630 and 1610 May. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1750, 1800, and 1830 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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