About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

USDA Crop Progress and Condition Reports
Crop Progress
Date 1-Apr 25-Mar 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 7 3 3
Sorghum Planted 9 13 11
Rice Planted 17 15 13
Rice Emerged 6 6 4
Oats Planted 26 24 29
Oats Emerged 25 21 25

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 11 19 38 28 4
Winter Wheat Last Week
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 11 35 45 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 29, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/29/2018 03/22/2018 03/30/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 439 21,071 32,289
CORN 1,348,992 1,330,442 1,487,930 24,442,755 33,340,523
FLAXSEED 0 0 1,909 4,745 26,761
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 599 200 12,180 13,193
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 53,587 262,249 138,420 3,749,270 3,743,142
SOYBEANS 542,434 709,759 627,780 41,482,483 46,984,002
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 361,723 343,772 573,010 19,875,058 21,834,092
Total 2,306,736 2,646,821 2,829,688 89,587,562 105,974,002
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mixed yesterday, with Chicago SRW and Minneapolis prices falling more and with HRW prices closing little changed. Continued mostly dry weather in the great Plains is still supporting the HRW market. Minneapolis continued to move lower as the Perspective Plantings reports showed that a big increase in Spring Wheat acreage was planned. That estimate was a bearish shock to the market. Lower futures prices and a weaker US Dollar have put US Wheat back into the mix for world buyers. Wheat futures are still in a weather market, and it remains very dry in the western Great Plains. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas, but La Nina is fading, so chances for rains should start to improve. However, the systems keep missing the area and go to the north instead. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Meanwhile, reports from eastern Europe and Russia point to the potential for good crops there, so the threat of sales from these areas will tend to keep Wheat futures weaker.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see Snow and rain early and late this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 446, 441, and 440 May, with resistance at 457, 461, and 464 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 467, 463, and 458 May, with resistance at 476, 481, and 483 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 572 and 550 May. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 May, and resistance is at 583, 594, and 605 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again despite the USDA quarterly stocks and planted area reports. The reports showed that current supplies are tight and likely to get tighter in the next few months. In particular, the on farm stocks are now very low as most farmers have already sold. The report showed that farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. Planting progress has been ahead of average so far, but has stalled recently due to cool and wet weather in Gulf coastal areas. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. Farmers and bankers are worried about profitability, and planting other crops such as Soybeans or Cotton could mean better returns for some producers. Any move lower might not last long and go very deep as the fundamental situation still remains bullish in the eyes of most analysts. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies The charts show that Rice once again faded from an important resistance area just above 1250 May.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation every couple of days. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1233, 1219, and 1212 May, with resistance at 1243, 1252, and 1254 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed sharply near unchanged after trading higher for much of the day. Support is still coming from the USDA reports of last week and ideas of very good demand. The planned Corn acreage this year, at about 88 million acres, was well below the average trade guess and the planted area last year. The report reflected producer and banker concerns about planting Corn and selling it at a profit. That means it will take much better prices to entice more Corn planted acreage. However, such acreage might not really be needed as a quick calculation shows that this planted area could produce about 14 billion bushels of Corn. The quarterly stocks report showed ample supplies as supplies were above any trade guess. The market is looking for demand and expects another week off strong export sales. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher over time, but the market is also working through big supplies still located in the US. Ethanol and export demand remain very strong. Trends turned up in Corn on the daily charts on Thursday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 395, 467, and 475 May. Support is at 386, 383, and 382 May, and resistance is at 393, 395, and 400 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 227, 222, and 220 May, and resistance is at 234, 238, and 241 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and soybean Meal were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling combined with increased selling from producers here in the US and also in Brazil. Soybean Oil was higher. The USDA reports from last week provided some initial support, but the large stocks available and the fact that Brazil is harvesting a big crop weighed on the market. The perspective plantings reports showed the potential for much less planted area than expected by the trade. The quarterly stocks report showed that inventories were at the high-end of expectations and not a reason to buy. It is still a weather market that is making for improved demand. Stronger export demand for US Soybeans is expected to continue due to the drought and reduced production in Argentina and less selling from Brazil. Brazil has a big crop, but has already sold a lot of Soybeans and might not have much more export capacity for now. Argentina is dry again. Some demand is shifting to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high-priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. Strong domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. There is concern that the trade war promoted by President Trump could hurt Chinese demand for US Soybeans. It remains very cold in the Midwest and there is rain and Snow in the forecast, so little or no fieldwork is likely to get done in the short-term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1054 and 1085 May. Support is at 1034, 1025, and 1023 May, and resistance is at 1050, 1054, and 1060 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 393.00, 409.00, and 410.00 May. Support is at 376.00, 369.00, and 368.00 May, and resistance is at 386.00, 387.00, and 390.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3160, 3130, and 3100 May, with resistance at 3250, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in sympathy with Chicago Soybean Oil and the weaker Canadian Dollar Charts show that trends are mixed, but with a firm tone, and speculators are said to be the best buyers. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. It is also watching the US-China trade dispute and the trade is wondering if Canola demand might improve as a result of any problems between the US and China. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little higher on string export data. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 526.00, 531.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2470 and 2530 June. Support is at 2430, 2410, and 2400 June, with resistance at 2460, 2470, and 2490 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation early and late this week, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 44 May 160 May 65 May 38 May 15-May
May 49 May 65 May 48 May
June 47 July 50 July 43 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April
May minus 4 May
June minus 6 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 28
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 505.90 up 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 536.80 dn 1.10
2 Can 523.80 dn 1.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 557.80 dn 1.10
2 Can 544.80 dn 1.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 244.00 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 662.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 662.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 670.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 595.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,465 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 239 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.8600)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 254,258 lots, or 9.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,747 3,773 3,725 3,763 3,772 3,749 -23 161,998 126,438
Jul-18 3,854 3,875 3,776 3,805 3,827 3,819 -8 118 2
Sep-18 3,848 3,868 3,818 3,859 3,857 3,845 -12 90,194 110,198
Nov-18 3,907 3,907 3,856 3,856 3,823 3,881 58 4 2
Jan-19 3,908 3,927 3,884 3,911 3,915 3,899 -16 1,896 4,374
Mar-19 – – – 3,930 3,930 3,930 0 0 2
May-19 3,959 3,980 3,950 3,980 3,978 3,958 -20 24 160
Jul-19 – – – 3,932 3,932 3,932 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,015 4,027 4,000 4,027 4,028 4,018 -10 24 30
Corn
Turnover: 1,594,880 lots, or 27.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,781 1,783 1,767 1,779 1,784 1,773 -11 140,142 261,070
Jul-18 1,743 1,756 1,741 1,752 1,748 1,747 -1 965,458 474,330
Sep-18 1,746 1,756 1,735 1,750 1,745 1,746 1 448,150 967,770
Nov-18 1,758 1,768 1,758 1,768 1,762 1,763 1 94 772
Jan-19 1,774 1,787 1,764 1,782 1,773 1,777 4 40,618 102,574
Mar-19 1,782 1,793 1,781 1,788 1,785 1,785 0 418 1,530
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,962,228 lots, or 93.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,150 3,178 3,129 3,133 3,115 3,147 32 403,854 559,224
Jul-18 3,171 3,191 3,151 3,156 3,100 3,166 66 356,488 280,436
Aug-18 3,152 3,204 3,152 3,156 3,125 3,174 49 106 454
Sep-18 3,160 3,205 3,150 3,163 3,118 3,171 53 1,983,294 2,818,482
Nov-18 3,142 3,189 3,141 3,158 3,097 3,162 65 570 1,214
Dec-18 – – – 3,102 3,102 3,102 0 0 224
Jan-19 3,119 3,175 3,117 3,138 3,086 3,139 53 216,542 394,420
Mar-19 3,090 3,146 3,090 3,115 3,074 3,118 44 1,374 1,074
Palm Oil
Turnover: 436,598 lots, or 22.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,034 5,034 5,034 0 0 0
May-18 5,044 5,114 5,044 5,112 5,046 5,088 42 67,942 153,724
Jun-18 – – – 5,158 5,116 5,158 42 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,150 5,150 5,150 0 0 0
Aug-18 5,170 5,170 5,170 5,170 5,026 5,170 144 4 6
Sep-18 5,050 5,130 5,050 5,130 5,044 5,098 54 355,524 394,740
Oct-18 – – – 5,044 5,044 5,044 0 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,156 5,102 5,156 54 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 5,216 5,162 5,216 54 0 0
Jan-19 5,088 5,144 5,076 5,142 5,060 5,112 52 13,128 42,570
Feb-19 – – – 5,168 5,116 5,168 52 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 752,382 lots, or 43.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,648 5,740 5,636 5,726 5,616 5,698 82 158,690 240,574
Jul-18 5,798 5,876 5,798 5,840 5,762 5,856 94 46 106
Aug-18 5,808 5,894 5,808 5,894 5,828 5,840 12 6 12
Sep-18 5,820 5,916 5,810 5,904 5,790 5,872 82 576,086 727,622
Nov-18 6,046 6,046 5,900 5,956 5,872 5,956 84 8 22
Dec-18 – – – 6,040 5,956 6,040 84 0 2
Jan-19 5,962 6,052 5,952 6,044 5,930 6,010 80 17,546 55,022
Mar-19 – – – 5,996 5,996 5,996 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322