About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week. Speculators were the best sellers, but turned buyers on Friday in end of the month and end of the quarter position squaring and despite the Perspective Plantings reports that showed increased area potential for Cotton this year. The increased area had been generally expected, but the magnitude of the projected increase was above most trade expectations. Farmers in just about all production areas plan to plant more Cotton. It is drier in the Delta and Texas after some big rains that hit again in the second half of last week, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast. Demand has been strong. USDA showed another week of strong export sales on Thursday, although the sales were lower than in the previous week. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the recent carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get periods of precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 78.22 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 57,224 ba1es, from 57,224 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7950, 7870, and 7730 May. Support is at 8070, 8030, and 7940 May, with resistance of 8270, 8380, and 8410 May.

DJ USDA Prospective Plantings: U.S. Upland/All Cotton-Mar 29
Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,
and United States , 2016-2018
====================================================================
Type Area Planted
and ========================================================
State 2016 2017 2018 1/ 2018/2017
====================================================================
========== 1,000 Acres ======== Percent
Upland
US 9,878.0 12,360.0 13,207.0 107
Amer-Pima
US 194.5 251.5 262.0 104
All
US 10,072.5 12,611.5 13,469.0 107
===================================================================
1/ Intended plantings in 2018 as indicated by reports from farmers.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Mar 30
Data quoted in bales for week ending Mar 29. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 4,436,843 Southwest 95,414 9,951,222
NC – 763,203 Okla 36,192 747,967
SC – 405,645 Texas 53,461 9,052,161
Ga – 2,192,034 Kansas 5,761 151,094
Ala * – 774,914
Fla – 119,040 Far West 2,291 723,151
Va – 182,007 NM – 43,246
Ariz 2,291 457,228
Delta 0 4,220,427 Calif – 222,677
Miss * – 1,287,347
Tenn – 718,537 Pima – 675,809
Mo – 682,976 Other 0 0
Ark – 1,123,871 Total US 97,705 20,007,452
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 39.8 67.5

DJ On-Call Cotton – Mar 29
As of Mar 23. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 18 26,635 30,482 -3,847 2,838 3,079 -241
Jul 18 49,322 49,602 -280 4,543 4,537 6
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 34,412 34,137 275 22,569 22,006 563
Mar 19 23,519 21,854 1,665 1,241 1,114 127
May 19 9,669 9,189 480 53 53 0
Jul 19 8,285 7,938 347 740 718 22
Dec 19 5,701 5,805 -104 9,982 9,956 26
Mar 20 1,511 1,511 0 146 146 0
May 20 92 92 0 0 0 0
Jul 20 26 26 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 0 0 0 44 44 0
Total 159,172 160,636 -1,464 42,156 41,653 503
Open Change
Int
May 18 115,824 125,349 -9,525
Jul 18 67,294 59,511 7,783
Oct 18 8 3 5
Dec 18 72,263 70,257 2,006
Mar 19 12,144 10,967 1,177
May 19 868 823 45
Jul 19 1,130 1,117 13
Dec 19 4,754 4,531 223
Mar 20 0 0 0
May 20 0 0 0
Jun 20 0 0 0
Dec 20 0 0 0
Total 274,285 272,558 1,727

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 345,597
: Positions :
: 94,680 14,932 75,018 64,943 231,816 90,992 10,873 325,633 332,638: 19,964 12,958
: Changes from: March 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 5,008) :
: -2,830 -750 1,588 4,165 3,620 1,088 976 4,012 5,435: 996 -427
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.4 4.3 21.7 18.8 67.1 26.3 3.1 94.2 96.3: 5.8 3.7
: Total Traders: 320 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 145 50 103 59 77 31 16 280 212:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was unchanged in narrow range trading on Thursday. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering is mostly over, and fruit is forming and starting to develop. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,279 :
: Positions :
: 9,065 7,440 1,357 0 0 553 3,314 96 925 969 2,266 :
: Changes from: March 20, 2018 :
: 396 12 5 0 0 -1 250 0 136 100 -20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.7 45.7 8.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 20.4 0.6 5.7 6.0 13.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 20 11 5 0 0 . 12 . 10 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were mixed on Thursday. Funds and other speculators have been trading on both sides of the market in light volumes. Some roasters buying is seen on a scale down basis, but it is not big enough buying to force a trend change. Traders sense underlying interest in buying the market amid ideas that the bearish news is finally priced in. Origin is offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Business is getting done, with Honduras the best seller. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders expect another bumper crop in Brazil. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Prices instead fell in Vietnam last week in response to price weakness in London and no differential improvement.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are near unchanged today and are about 1.947 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are down, with objectives of 1650 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1640 May, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 316,408
: Positions :
: 47,834 103,812 86,471 111,605 105,006 52,095 12,027 298,005 307,316: 18,403 9,091
: Changes from: March 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 10,760) :
: 3,884 2,489 5,482 642 661 740 1,628 10,747 10,260: 13 501
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 32.8 27.3 35.3 33.2 16.5 3.8 94.2 97.1: 5.8 2.9
: Total Traders: 555 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 189 163 164 143 123 28 20 444 400:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
146,296 87,044 70,948 9,602 2,799 4,623
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.5% 48.5% 6.6% 1.9% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 59 52 15 6 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,900 33,501 8,932 1,164 2,276 17,221
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.1% 22.9% 6.1% 0.8% 1.6% 11.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 32 13 14 6 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,811 5,995
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 4.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little higher Thursday. Traders hear about big production form the world producers and have no real reason to buy. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India will export up to 4.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government there is reducing or eliminating export taxes in an effort to promote selling i world markets. It has a significant surplus after several years of lower production. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Corn based ethanol is cheaper, but the mills will offer the Sugar based ethanol, anyway Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1190 and 1130 May. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 340.00 May. Support is at 347.00, 345.00, and 344.00 May, and resistance is at 355.00, 360.00, and 364.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,091,593
: Positions :
: 131,701 303,533 228,884 373,908 439,960 274,824 35,086 1,009,317 1,007,463: 82,276 84,130
: Changes from: March 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 32,442) :
: -884 1,610 16,415 20,181 8,292 1,336 7,026 37,048 33,343: -4,606 -901
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 27.8 21.0 34.3 40.3 25.2 3.2 92.5 92.3: 7.5 7.7
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 82 96 78 74 24 17 226 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
99,385 37,714 61,599 17,545 2,293 1,979
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 37.9% 62.0% 17.7% 2.3% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 49 59 12 5 3
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,557 18,187 6,976 5,544 1,255 1,911
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.7% 18.3% 7.0% 5.6% 1.3% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 20 11 9 6 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,159 5,184
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 5.2%

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed lower on liquidation selling before the end of the month and the end of the quarter. There were reports of beneficial rains in most countries in the region. Trends in both New York and London remain up. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally, and ideas of strong demand from processors remains the other part of the rally. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.793 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2780 and 2930 May. Support is at 2510, 2430, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2660 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1890 and 1990 May. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 370,917
: Positions :
: 86,784 51,700 102,477 106,753 178,210 55,884 26,418 351,898 358,805: 19,018 12,112
: Changes from: March 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 9,239) :
: 1,920 319 3,797 411 3,816 1,731 1,945 7,859 9,877: 1,380 -637
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.4 13.9 27.6 28.8 48.0 15.1 7.1 94.9 96.7: 5.1 3.3
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 80 87 45 44 27 10 225 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
344,268 171,492 221,685 27,001 22,741 20,838
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.8% 64.4% 7.8% 6.6% 6.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 55 47 16 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
49,329 8,580 28,053 3,669 894 39,622
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.3% 2.5% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 11.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 12 15 10 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,265 1,856
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.5%

DJ Farmers in Nigeria’s Ondo State Begin 2017-18 Cocoa Midcrop Harvest
Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Farmers in Nigeria’s largest cocoa-producing state have begun the first harvest of the 2017-18 cocoa midcrop, officials said Wednesday.
“Ondo state is now harvesting the new midcrop,” said Eric Akinyele, an official of the Ondo State Farmers Congress.
Ondo’s midcrop harvest has started at low volumes but higher volumes should be harvested next month once more rain has fallen, said Joshua Oyedele, an official with the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, or CAN
The harvest in Ondo follows that of Ogun state, the first in the key southwest region to begin the midcrop harvest earlier in March.
A dry spell between November and February in the southwest has delayed the harvest until April in other states, traders said.
The southwest accounts for 70% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa production of 300,000 metric tons, according to CAN.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018