About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 29
For the week ended Mar 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 353.8 121.8 22808.4 26249.1 4345.5 878.3
hrw 113.9 20.8 8939.3 10785.4 1230.2 199.7
srw 28.3 0.0 2393.3 2355.5 561.5 155.7
hrs 69.3 62.9 5944.0 8147.7 1428.9 314.1
white 140.6 38.2 5158.4 4515.9 1059.1 152.2
durum 1.8 0.0 373.6 444.5 65.9 56.5
corn 1353.1 287.0 46454.9 47423.7 23491.4 1859.0
soybeans 317.5 69.7 50351.1 54669.9 9352.4 2007.1
soymeal 184.1 0.0 8694.6 8344.6 3177.0 169.4
soyoil 34.6 0.0 649.4 749.7 238.4 0.8
upland cotton 304.3 62.1 14505.4 12305.1 6988.4 2779.1
pima cotton 5.2 1.6 551.7 548.2 167.9 43.4
sorghum 19.3 0.0 5205.6 3834.6 1236.3 0.0
barley -14.9 0.0 39.5 24.3 12.5 39.4
rice 77.6 7.5 2324.3 2806.1 566.5 8.5

U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Shipment Totals-Mar 29
For the week ended Mar 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Export shipments do not include those for own
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
Export shipments Accum shipments
this wk last wk this yr last yr this yr
wheat 328.7 472.8 18462.9 20280.2 25180
hrw 67.0 268.0 7709.1 8696.2 NA
srw 93.8 27.5 1831.8 1831.9 NA
hrs 65.6 94.1 4515.1 6199.2 NA
white 71.1 83.2 4099.3 3184.3 NA
durum 31.3 0.0 307.7 368.5 NA
corn 1376.1 1375.3 22963.5 30530.3 56520
soybeans 782.9 548.7 40998.7 46643.6 56200
soymeal 286.6 147.5 5517.6 5438.4 11250
soyoil 30.4 11.5 411.0 603.7 860
upland cotton 438.4 425.1 7517.0 7874.1 13740
pima cotton 14.8 19.7 383.8 391.2 630
sorghum 211.7 249.6 3969.3 2827.8 6220
barley 0.1 0.5 27.0 15.4 130
rice 22.6 98.2 1757.8 2202.0 3180

General Comments: Cotton was lower on speculative selling. The selling came as Cotton futures broke some support levels on the charts. The prospective plantings report is expected to show a sharp increase in Cotton plantings potential in the US. Price Group expects US All Cotton planted area to be near 13.45 million acres. It is drier in the Delta and Texas after some big rains, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast once the latest storm moves out, or so producers hope. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last month. The market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the region.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get some significant precipitation today then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 787.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 60,218 bales, from 60,218 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7950, 7870, and 7730 May. Support is at 8070, 8030, and 7940 May, with resistance of 8270, 8380, and 8410 May.

General Comments: FCOJ was higher on more speculative short covering. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 143.00, and 145.00 May.

General Comments Futures were a little lower in quiet trading.Funds and other speculators have been trading on both sides of the market. Some roasters buying is seen on a scale down basis, but it is not big enough buying to force a trend change. Traders sense underlying interest in buying the market amid ideas that the bearish news is finally priced in. Origin is offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Business is getting done, with Honduras the best seller. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders expect another bumper crop in Brazil. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Prices instead fell in Vietnam last week in response to price weakness in London and no differential improvement.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.947 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are down, with objectives of 1650 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1640 May, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.

General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday, and made new lows for the move in both markets. There seems to be no real reason to try to buy the market at this time. Traders hear about big production form the world producers and have no real reason to buy even if they have no interest in selling. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to any selling. India will export up to 4.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government there is reducing or eliminating export taxes in an effort to promote selling i world markets. It has a significant surplus after several years of lower production. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Corn based ethanol is cheaper, but the mills will offer the Sugar based ethanol, anyway Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 190 and 1130 May. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 340.00 May. Support is at 347.00, 345.00, and 344.00 May, and resistance is at 355.00, 360.00, and 364.00 May.

General Comments Futures closed higher yesterday after making new lows for the move. The buying came despite reports of improved weather in West Africa surfaced. There were reports of beneficial rains in most countries in the region. Trends in both New York and London remain up. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally, and ideas of strong demand from processors remains the other part of the rally. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.764 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2780 and 2930 May. Support is at 2510, 2430, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2660 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1890 and 1990 May. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 May.

DJ Farmers in Nigeria’s Ondo State Begin 2017-18 Cocoa Midcrop Harvest
Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Farmers in Nigeria’s largest cocoa-producing state have begun the first harvest of the 2017-18 cocoa midcrop, officials said Wednesday.
“Ondo state is now harvesting the new midcrop,” said Eric Akinyele, an official of the Ondo State Farmers Congress.
Ondo’s midcrop harvest has started at low volumes but higher volumes should be harvested next month once more rain has fallen, said Joshua Oyedele, an official with the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, or CAN
The harvest in Ondo follows that of Ogun state, the first in the key southwest region to begin the midcrop harvest earlier in March.
A dry spell between November and February in the southwest has delayed the harvest until April in other states, traders said.
The southwest accounts for 70% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa production of 300,000 metric tons, according to CAN.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322