About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: 2018 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2017
Corn 89.348 88.4-91.0 90.167
Soybeans 90.919 89.9-92.1 90.142
All Wheat 46.481 45.7-47.2 46.012
Winter Wheat 32.563 32.2-32.7 32.696
Spring Wheat 11.550 10.9-12.0 11.009
Durum Wheat 2.413 2.2-2.7 2.307
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 89.2 91.0 46.7 32.6 11.6 2.5
Agrisource 89.1 91.8 45.7
Agrivisor 88.7 90.5 46.4 32.7 11.4 2.3
Allendale 88.5 92.1 46.9 32.6 11.9 2.4
DC Analysis 89.8 89.9 46.4 32.6 11.5 2.3
Doane 88.4 90.9 46.5 32.5 11.8 2.2
EDFMan Capital 89.0 91.5 46.0 32.7 10.9 2.4
Farm Futures 90.0 91.5 46.2 32.3 11.7 2.3
Futures INTL 90.0 90.3 46.4 32.6 11.4 2.4
Hueber Report 89.5 91.2 46.4
INTL FCStone 88.9 92.0 46.1 32.4 11.3 2.4
Sid Love Consulting 89.2 91.0 46.3 32.7 11.3 2.4
MaxYield 90.0 90.0 46.5
Northstar 89.3 89.9 47.2 32.7 11.5 2.7
Prime-Ag 89.0 91.0 46.5
Price Group 88.6 91.1 46.7 32.6 11.7 2.5
RJ O’Brien 89.0 91.5 46.6 32.7 11.5 2.4
US Commodities 89.8 90.7 46.6
Vantage RM 89.8 90.7 46.3 32.2 11.6 2.5
Western Milling 89.5 90.5 47.0 32.5 12.0 2.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 91.0 90.2 46.7 32.6 11.7 2.4

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range 17-Mar Dec. 2017
Corn 8,713 8,500-8,881 8,622 12,516
Soybeans 2,042 1,870-2,110 1,739 3,157
Wheat 1,486 1,450-1,620 1,659 1,874
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,725 2,042 1,473
Agrivisor 8,695 2,095 1,485
Allendale 8,743 2,099 1,488
DC Analysis 8,744 2,063 1,480
Doane 8,790 2,062 1,465
EDFMan Capital 8,600 1,875 1,550
Farm Futures 8,787 2,057 1,476
Futures INTL 8,701 2,070 1,457
INTL FCStone 8,612 2,087 1,469
Sid Love Consulti 8,664 2,016 1,465
MaxYield 8,500 1,870 1,450
Northstar 8,780 2,040 1,465
Prime-Ag 8,800 2,050 1,500
Price Group 8,755 2,110 1,510
RJ O’Brien 8,681 2,064 1,472
US Commodities 8,722 2,032 1,620
Vantage RM 8,625 1,995 1,474
Western Milling 8,737 2,106 1,485
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,881 2,061 1,450

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 29
For the week ended Mar 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 353.8 121.8 22808.4 26249.1 4345.5 878.3
hrw 113.9 20.8 8939.3 10785.4 1230.2 199.7
srw 28.3 0.0 2393.3 2355.5 561.5 155.7
hrs 69.3 62.9 5944.0 8147.7 1428.9 314.1
white 140.6 38.2 5158.4 4515.9 1059.1 152.2
durum 1.8 0.0 373.6 444.5 65.9 56.5
corn 1353.1 287.0 46454.9 47423.7 23491.4 1859.0
soybeans 317.5 69.7 50351.1 54669.9 9352.4 2007.1
soymeal 184.1 0.0 8694.6 8344.6 3177.0 169.4
soyoil 34.6 0.0 649.4 749.7 238.4 0.8
upland cotton 304.3 62.1 14505.4 12305.1 6988.4 2779.1
pima cotton 5.2 1.6 551.7 548.2 167.9 43.4
sorghum 19.3 0.0 5205.6 3834.6 1236.3 0.0
barley -14.9 0.0 39.5 24.3 12.5 39.4
rice 77.6 7.5 2324.3 2806.1 566.5 8.5

U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Shipment Totals-Mar 29
For the week ended Mar 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Export shipments do not include those for own
account.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
USDA Proj
Export shipments Accum shipments
this wk last wk this yr last yr this yr
wheat 328.7 472.8 18462.9 20280.2 25180
hrw 67.0 268.0 7709.1 8696.2 NA
srw 93.8 27.5 1831.8 1831.9 NA
hrs 65.6 94.1 4515.1 6199.2 NA
white 71.1 83.2 4099.3 3184.3 NA
durum 31.3 0.0 307.7 368.5 NA
corn 1376.1 1375.3 22963.5 30530.3 56520
soybeans 782.9 548.7 40998.7 46643.6 56200
soymeal 286.6 147.5 5517.6 5438.4 11250
soyoil 30.4 11.5 411.0 603.7 860
upland cotton 438.4 425.1 7517.0 7874.1 13740
pima cotton 14.8 19.7 383.8 391.2 630
sorghum 211.7 249.6 3969.3 2827.8 6220
barley 0.1 0.5 27.0 15.4 130
rice 22.6 98.2 1757.8 2202.0 3180

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were a little lower again yesterday on new forecasts for at least some precipitation in the driest areas of the Great Plains. Some precipitation was seen in the western Great Plains this week, but amounts were light. Only light precipitation is in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. The crop condition remains generally very bad in the Great Plains and generally good in the Midwest. Demand is still a problem for this market as the weekly export sales reports have been bad for many weeks. The export sales report was stronger last week and there are hopes for improved sales for now as the US Dollar and lower futures have made US Wheat more competitive in the world market. The demand needed to justify the ending stocks estimates from USDA is just not appearing, and there is some talk now that USDA will be forced to increase ending stocks estimates for the current crop in the next couple of monthly reports.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation on Friday and early next week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 368 and 363 May. Support is at 440, 433, and 427 May, with resistance at 451, 454, and 457 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 458, 456, and 445 May, with resistance at 470, 475, and 481 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 587, 583, and 576 May, and resistance is at 605, 608, and 613 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was unchanged to a little higher in quiet trading. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. The market now expects no more than an increase of 15% in planted area, and an increase that small or smaller could be considered bullish for new crop prices. Any move lower might not last long and go very deep as the fundamental situation still remains bullish in the eyes of most analysts. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. USDA will issue its latest quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Thursday. Price Group expects planted area of 2.63 million acres and stocks near 80 million hundredweight.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1238, 1233, and 1219 May, with resistance at 1252, 1254, and 1260 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed little changed yesterday in quiet trading. Traders are getting ready for the USDA reports today and also the end of the month and end of the quarter which also happens today due to the Easter holiday. The market is looking for demand and has not seen any in the daily sales announcements for at least a week. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher over time, but the market is also working through big supplies still located in the US. Ethanol and export demand remain very strong. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. The market focus is on Thursday and the planting intentions reports along with the quarterly stocks reports. Traders expect planted area to be reduced for Corn due to costs of production and the lower prices that were seen until recently. The quarterly stocks will show the domestic demand and especially the feed demand that has been a big question for the trade as no one knows for sure how strong feed demand has been in recent months. Price Group expects planted area near 88.55 million acres for Corn and 3.15 million acres for Oats. Barley area could be about 2.81 million acres, and Sorghum area should be near 6.15 million acres. Corn stocks should be about 8.755 billion bushels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 May, and resistance is at 378, 381, and 382 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 220, 217, and 214 May, and resistance is at 227, 232, and 234 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower again yesterday and Soybean Oil was a little higher. It is still a weather market that is making for improved demand. Stronger export demand for US Soybeans is expected to continue due to the drought nd reduced production in Argentina and less selling from Brazil. Brazil has a big crop, but has already sold a lot of Soybeans and might not have much more export capacity for now Argentina is dry again. Some demand is shifting to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high-priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. Strong domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. USDA will issue its prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports on Thursday. Price Group expects Soybeans planted area near 91.05 million acres and stocks near 2.110 billion bushels.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 266,500 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 998 May. Support is at 1015, 1013, and 1009 May, and resistance is at 1025, 1034, and 1037 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 409.00 and 419.00 May. Support is at 369.00, 363.00, and 361.00 May, and resistance is at 380.00, 386.00, and 387.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3120 and 3020 May. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 3300 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed, with nearby months a little lower and new crop months a little higher. Competing vegetable oilsmarkets were narrowly mixed. The Canadian Dollar has turned firmer, but export sales have been active in the last couple of weeks on the move down in the Canadian Dollar. Charts show that trends are mixed. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. It is also watching the US-China trade dispute and the trade is wondering if Canola demand might improve as a result of any problems between the US and China. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released  overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 525.00, 526.00, and 531.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2460, 2470, and 2490 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier weather likely, but still chances for more precipitation late this week or over the weekend, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 160 May 70 May 35 May 15-May
April 45 May 65 May 37 May
May 51 May 65 May 49 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April
May 115 May minus 3 May
June minus 4 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 28
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 505.90 up 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 536.80 dn 1.10
2 Can 523.80 dn 1.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 557.80 dn 1.10
2 Can 544.80 dn 1.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 244.00 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 660.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 590.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,430 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 234 -2.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.8660)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,954 lots, or 5.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,743 3,757 3,712 3,745 3,738 3,738 0 96,580 136,208
Jul-18 – – – 3,787 3,787 3,787 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,798 3,825 3,780 3,808 3,798 3,803 5 39,582 90,446
Nov-18 3,823 3,823 3,823 3,823 3,816 3,823 7 2 2
Jan-19 3,846 3,880 3,844 3,862 3,855 3,862 7 716 3,818
Mar-19 – – – 3,865 3,865 3,865 0 0 4
May-19 3,920 3,936 3,911 3,923 3,925 3,923 -2 18 148
Jul-19 – – – 3,923 3,923 3,923 0 0 2
Sep-19 3,966 3,986 3,937 3,944 3,990 3,959 -31 56 56
Corn
Turnover: 394,650 lots, or 6.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,789 1,790 1,782 1,785 1,789 1,785 -4 73,724 312,164
Jul-18 1,748 1,752 1,742 1,745 1,748 1,746 -2 149,900 491,198
Sep-18 1,745 1,749 1,741 1,743 1,745 1,744 -1 161,278 900,530
Nov-18 1,764 1,765 1,760 1,763 1,762 1,763 1 94 826
Jan-19 1,773 1,775 1,765 1,770 1,771 1,769 -2 9,256 102,602
Mar-19 1,784 1,786 1,778 1,786 1,782 1,783 1 398 1,586
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,836,244 lots, or 55.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,047 3,051 3,025 3,027 3,063 3,032 -31 300,190 734,600
Jul-18 3,055 3,055 3,028 3,031 3,073 3,042 -31 136,868 274,270
Aug-18 3,037 3,037 3,027 3,029 3,066 3,029 -37 12 410
Sep-18 3,041 3,042 3,010 3,018 3,055 3,022 -33 1,328,650 2,449,716
Nov-18 3,017 3,021 2,997 3,005 3,039 3,005 -34 66 1,148
Dec-18 2,971 2,975 2,971 2,975 3,008 2,973 -35 16 110
Jan-19 2,982 2,987 2,958 2,971 2,998 2,969 -29 69,906 335,018
Mar-19 2,964 2,966 2,949 2,960 2,981 2,957 -24 536 1,056
Palm Oil
Turnover: 479,074 lots, or 24.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 5,002 5,002 5,002 5,002 5,002 5,002 0 4 4
May-18 5,080 5,080 5,006 5,014 5,070 5,030 -40 90,618 188,610
Jun-18 – – – 5,100 5,100 5,100 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,150 5,190 5,150 -40 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,060 5,100 5,060 -40 0 2
Sep-18 5,060 5,068 4,994 5,010 5,078 5,020 -58 374,822 461,678
Oct-18 – – – 5,044 5,102 5,044 -58 0 4
Nov-18 5,102 5,110 5,096 5,096 5,164 5,102 -62 6 20
Dec-18 – – – 5,138 5,200 5,138 -62 0 0
Jan-19 5,098 5,098 5,022 5,036 5,086 5,046 -40 13,622 41,742
Feb-19 5,116 5,116 5,116 5,116 5,186 5,116 -70 2 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,132 5,158 5,132 -26 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 556,128 lots, or 31.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,630 5,630 5,548 5,556 5,628 5,584 -44 133,792 318,934
Jul-18 – – – 5,688 5,732 5,688 -44 0 66
Aug-18 – – – 5,782 5,782 5,782 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,780 5,788 5,710 5,722 5,796 5,748 -48 407,162 637,318
Nov-18 – – – 5,872 5,920 5,872 -48 0 26
Dec-18 5,930 5,930 5,930 5,930 6,058 5,930 -128 4 4
Jan-19 5,926 5,932 5,850 5,854 5,940 5,890 -50 15,170 50,318
Mar-19 – – – 5,996 5,996 5,996 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018