Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a Little higher in quiet trading. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The prospective plantings report is expected to show a sharp increase in Cotton plantings potential in the US. Price Group expects US All Cotton planted área to be near 13.45 million acres. It is drier in the Delta and Texas after some big rains, and drier weather will be seen in the Southeast once the latest storm moves out, or so producers hope. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected, but the carry spread weakness could be a sign that merchants have been able to get covered in the last couple of weeks. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest, but there is a chance that the highs have been seen. The market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the región.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get some significant precipitation over the next couple of days. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will see mostly cry conditions. Temperatures will be warm. The USDA average price is now 78.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 60,218 ba1es, from 60,218 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8140, 8100, and 8070 May, with resistance of 8380, 8410, and 8550 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on more speculative short covering, but held the Monday trading range. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but some big rains are reported in northern parts of the state. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors. Producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The best precipitation should be this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 131.00 May. Support is at 135.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 143.00 May.
General Comments Futures were a little higher in quiet trading. Traders sense underlying interest in buying the market amid ideas that the bearish news is finally priced in. Origin is offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Some business is getting done, with Honduras the best seller. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchats are not willing to sell at current prices and are willing to wait for a rally. Prices instead fell in Vietnam last week in response to price weakness in London and no differential improvement.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.943 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 112.62 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers in the north starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are down, with objectives of 1650 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1640 May, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 May.
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday, but mostly held the recent trading range. Traders hear about big production form the world producers and have no real reason to buy even if they have no interest in selling. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short term have been key to any selling. India will export up to 4.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government there is reducing or eliminating export taxes in an effort to promote selling i world markets. It has a significant surplus after several years of lower production. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Corn based etanol is cheaper, but the mills will offer the Sugar based etanol, anyway Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1200, and 1170 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1320, and 1340 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 May, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 370.00 May.
General Comments Futures closed lower yesterday in liquidation trading as reports of improved weather in West Africa surfaced. There were reports of beneficial rains in most countries in the regon. Trends in both New York and London remain up. Ideas of smaller world production that has been largely sold remain part of the rally, and ideas of strong demand from processors remains the other part of the rally. Most in the trade anticípate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to créate production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperaturas have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. No yield reports have been seen yet. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperaturas. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.735 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2780 and 2930 May. Support is at 2510, 2430, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2660 May. Trends in London are mied to up with objjectives of 1890 and 1990 May. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 May.
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