About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MAY BEANS

A plethora of cross-currents have buffeted the grain complex in the past week – not the least of which were TRADE WAR JITTERS!  Added to these were rain forecasts for Argentina, US Plains & fears of a bearish USDA Report 3/29/18 The net result was a 22 cent down – but the mkt did hold ½ way-back of its 2018 rally!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 584,612 MMT (459,987) – Thur sales

Were  899,000 (700-1400)

3/26     132,000            Beans         Unk

120,000            Meal          Spain

3/16        20,000           Oil              Unk

3/9       183,000            Beans        China

205,000                               Unk

3/6       120,000                               China

  • TRADE WAR? – sabers are rattling between US & China and the mkts

Have reacted accordingly – but will anything come of it – we doubt it! We need China – China needs us – and Trump is first & foremost a businessman – who doesn’t want to damage US/China trade – so we see a status quo soon resuming

  • SOUTH AMERICA – a significant drought has damaged their corn & bean crops

In some cases reducing crop sizes by 15-30%

BRAZIL CORN         85.5   (ly – 98.5)

ARG CORN              31.0   (ly – 41.0)

ARG BEANS             39.5   (ly – 57.8)

  • USDA ACREAGE & STOCKS –  3/29/18

CORN ACRES           89.5 ma (ly – 90.2)

BEAN ACRES           91.0 ma (ly – 90.1)

CORN QTLY STKS   8.711 (Mar – 8.622)

BEAN                        2.030 (Mar – 1739)

WHT                         1.493 (Mar – 1659)

  • US DOLLAR – has dropped 150 points since Mar 1 – which has helped our exports we’re impressed with Bean’s action last week – only correcting  50% with ominous rumors of a trade war over-hanging the mkt!  Further, with LA NINA impacting Argentina & the US Plains, who’s to say it won’t creep into the Corn Belt – Just at the wrong time!

MAY CORN

May Corn was victimized by the two-headed monster – known as rain & trade war jitters – but after all the smoke cleared, the contract only lost 5 cents.  Rain in Argentina pressured May Beans & rain in The Plains pressured May Wht – and together they leaned on corn!  However, exports remain stellar!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,153,963 MMT (1,439,155) – Thur sales

Were  1.61MMT (1.5 – 2.4)

3/21            138,000             S. Korea

3/20            110,000             Peru

3/19            115,000             Unk

3/19            206,000             Japan

  • TRADE WAR – the mkt has partially dialed in a trade war that we feel will never happen
  • THUR USDA ACRES & QTLY STOCKS – the trade is eagerly awaiting these #’s – expecting ½ million less acres of corn & 1 million more of beans – however, the mkt will quickly revert  back to weather – more US planting weather than the Argentine drought May Corn retraced 50% of its 2018 up-move off the afore-mentioned factors and awaits the all-important  USDA #’S to fuel its next move.  But with sterling exports, lower US acreage & S/A crop issues, the uptrend is still intact!

MAY WHEAT

The Lord giveth & the Lord taketh away – and that’s how a “weather mkt” rolls!  So, since Mar 1, May Wht has surrendered 70 cents (520-450) – mostly off  “RAIN IN THE PLAINS”!

  • Despite the recent moisture, G/EX ratings are still abysmal

KS  – 13(11)           OK – 9(5)         TX – 12(10)

  • Russia has exported more wht than anyone else in the past 25 years –

And still their inventories increased 11 MMT

  • Despite the rains in the plains, WW has taken a hit that can’t be quantified

Until it comes out of dormancy

  • Last wk, May KC Wht went limit-down
  • Cumulative export sales are at 89% – only 3% below the avg USDA target

APRIL CATTLE

In a little over a month, Apl Cat has plummeted  $13 (128-115) – on the back of rising production – reflected by the past 3-4 cattle-on-feed reports with high placements & quarterly increases in total beef supply. You’d think that solid demand would be generated at these cheaper levels – especially as we come into Spring Barbeque Season!  The mkt will tell us!

APRIL HOGS

April Hogs have followed cattle’s lead – losing $19 (77-58) since early January! and just in the past week, the mkt was in free fall (65.50- 58.50) – dropping $7!  This is a decidedly bearish mkt – where production has overwhelmed demand – but at the  same time is extremely oversold!

  • The Pig Crop tomorrow at 2pm may reflect the bad news is already dialed in
  • China tariffs have fueled the downside
  • East Coast weather has not been conducive to demand
  • April Hogs discount to cash has mitigated this down
  • Big 2nd Qtr supply news has weighed on the mkt
  • Spring Barbeque “D” could be a savior!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337