About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 26
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 22, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/22/2018 03/15/2018 03/23/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 245 539 21,071 31,850
CORN 1,153,963 1,439,155 1,569,779 22,916,794 31,852,593
FLAXSEED 0 0 1,352 4,745 24,852
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 11,581 12,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 254,684 252,328 166,299 3,688,118 3,604,722
SOYBEANS 584,612 499,987 556,400 40,814,437 46,356,222
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 278,815 476,467 546,209 19,447,037 21,261,082
Total 2,272,074 2,668,182 2,840,578 86,903,783 103,144,314
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Survey: 2018 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2017
Corn 89.348 88.4-91.0 90.167
Soybeans 90.919 89.9-92.1 90.142
All Wheat 46.481 45.7-47.2 46.012
Winter Wheat 32.563 32.2-32.7 32.696
Spring Wheat 11.550 10.9-12.0 11.009
Durum Wheat 2.413 2.2-2.7 2.307
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 89.2 91.0 46.7 32.6 11.6 2.5
Agrisource 89.1 91.8 45.7
Agrivisor 88.7 90.5 46.4 32.7 11.4 2.3
Allendale 88.5 92.1 46.9 32.6 11.9 2.4
DC Analysis 89.8 89.9 46.4 32.6 11.5 2.3
Doane 88.4 90.9 46.5 32.5 11.8 2.2
EDFMan Capital 89.0 91.5 46.0 32.7 10.9 2.4
Farm Futures 90.0 91.5 46.2 32.3 11.7 2.3
Futures INTL 90.0 90.3 46.4 32.6 11.4 2.4
Hueber Report 89.5 91.2 46.4
INTL FCStone 88.9 92.0 46.1 32.4 11.3 2.4
Sid Love Consulting 89.2 91.0 46.3 32.7 11.3 2.4
MaxYield 90.0 90.0 46.5
Northstar 89.3 89.9 47.2 32.7 11.5 2.7
Prime-Ag 89.0 91.0 46.5
Price Group 88.6 91.1 46.7 32.6 11.7 2.5
RJ O’Brien 89.0 91.5 46.6 32.7 11.5 2.4
US Commodities 89.8 90.7 46.6
Vantage RM 89.8 90.7 46.3 32.2 11.6 2.5
Western Milling 89.5 90.5 47.0 32.5 12.0 2.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 91.0 90.2 46.7 32.6 11.7 2.4

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range 17-Mar Dec. 2017
Corn 8,713 8,500-8,881 8,622 12,516
Soybeans 2,042 1,870-2,110 1,739 3,157
Wheat 1,486 1,450-1,620 1,659 1,874
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,725 2,042 1,473
Agrivisor 8,695 2,095 1,485
Allendale 8,743 2,099 1,488
DC Analysis 8,744 2,063 1,480
Doane 8,790 2,062 1,465
EDFMan Capital 8,600 1,875 1,550
Farm Futures 8,787 2,057 1,476
Futures INTL 8,701 2,070 1,457
INTL FCStone 8,612 2,087 1,469
Sid Love Consulti 8,664 2,016 1,465
MaxYield 8,500 1,870 1,450
Northstar 8,780 2,040 1,465
Prime-Ag 8,800 2,050 1,500
Price Group 8,755 2,110 1,510
RJ O’Brien 8,681 2,064 1,472
US Commodities 8,722 2,032 1,620
Vantage RM 8,625 1,995 1,474
Western Milling 8,737 2,106 1,485
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,881 2,061 1,450

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower again yesterday no new forecasts for at least some precipitation in the driest areas of the Great Plains. Meanwhile, the drought keeps expanding and getting more severe, so these rains are needed. Some Winter Wheat states issued crop progress and condition reports yesterday, and the crop condition remains generally very bad in the Great Plains and generally good in the Midwest. Demand is still a problem for this market as the weekly export sales reports have been bad for many weeks. The export sales report was stronger last week and there are hopes for improved sales for now as the US Dollar and lower futures have made US Wheat more competitive in the world market. The demand needed to justify the ending stocks estimates from USDA is just not appearing, and there is some talk now that USDA will be forced to increase ending stocks estimates for the current crop in the next couple of monthly reports.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation on Friday and early next week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 450, 447, and 446 May, with resistance at 461, 464, and 465 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 463, 458, and 456 May, with resistance at 481, 483, and 485 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 594, 587, and 583 May, and resistance is at 605, 608, and 613 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again on yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower. The daily charts showed that more buying is possible today as futures have held support and now are threatening to turn the trends up. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. The market now expects no more than an increase of 15% in planted area.. Traders are hoping for strong export demand to continue, but the limited supplies alone should be enough to keep the market supported. Any move lower might not last long and go very deep as the fundamental situation still remains bullish in the eyes of most analysts. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. USDA will issue its latest quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Thursday. Price Group expects planted area of 2.63 million acres and stocks near 80 million hundredweight.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1219, and 1213 May, with resistance at 1250, 1254, and 1260 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday, mostly i sympathy with Wheat at first and Soybeans later in the day. The market is looking for demand and has not seen any in the daily sales announcements for at least a week. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher over time, but the market is also working through big supplies still located in the US. Ethanol and export demand remain very strong. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. The market focus is on Thursday and the planting intentions reports along with the quarterly stocks reports. Traders expect planted area to be reduced for Corn due to costs of production and the lower prices that were seen until recently. The quarterly stocks will show the domestic demand and especially the feed demand that has been a big question for the trade as no one knows for sure how strong feed demand has been in recent months. Price Group expects planted area near 88.55 million acres for Corn and 3.15 million acres for Oats. Barley area could be about 2.81 million acres, and Sorghum area should be near 6.15 million acres. Corn stocks should be about 8.755 billion bushels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 May, and resistance is at 378, 381, and 382 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 223, 220, and 217 May, and resistance is at 232, 234, and 238 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower again yesterday after failing to hold an early rally attempt. The market did find some support when China did not move to include US Soybeans on its list of retaliatory tariffs in response to the Trump moves of last week. Pork, ethanol, fruits, and nuts were the agricultural products listed for retaliation. Argentina is dry again. and forecasts now see the country staying dry. Some demand is shifting to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high-priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. Strong domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. USDA will issue its prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports on Thursday. Price Group expects Soybeans planted área near 91.05 million acres and stocks near 2.110 billion bushels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1023, 1016, and 1013 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1050, and 1054 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 409.00 and 419.00 May. Support is at 375.00, 369.00, and 363.00 May, and resistance is at 380.00, 386.00, and 387.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3120 and 3020 May. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 3300 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on speculative buying. Weakness in world vegetable oils markets hurt Canola. The Canadian Dollar has turned firmer, but export sales have been active in the last couple of weeks on the move down in the Canadian Dollar. Charts show that trends are mixed. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. It is also watching the US-China trade dispute and the trade is wondering if Canola demand might improve as a result of any problems between the US and China. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower despite strong export data released by SGS and other private surveyors. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 523.00, 525.00, and 526.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2520 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier weather likely, but still chances for more precipitation late this week or over the weekend, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 42 May 160 May 70 May 27-May 15-May
April 46 May 60 May 30-May
May 50 May 60 May 44 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 102 May minus 7 May
May 102 May minus 7 May
June 110 July minus 10 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 26
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 503.60 up 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 537.70 up 2.10
2 Can 524.70 up 2.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 557.70 up 2.10
2 Can 544.70 up 2.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 240.00 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 660.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,445 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 239 -1.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.8745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 191,472 lots, or 7.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,767 3,777 3,711 3,752 3,767 3,745 -22 140,882 139,466
Jul-18 – – – 3,787 3,787 3,787 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,840 3,850 3,790 3,811 3,823 3,818 -5 49,782 88,010
Nov-18 – – – 3,798 3,798 3,798 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,890 3,905 3,850 3,863 3,878 3,884 6 764 3,530
Mar-19 – – – 3,865 3,865 3,865 0 0 4
May-19 3,967 3,967 3,926 3,929 3,952 3,942 -10 20 140
Jul-19 – – – 3,923 3,923 3,923 0 0 2
Sep-19 3,991 3,991 3,950 3,983 3,986 3,968 -18 24 24
Corn
Turnover: 778,652 lots, or 13.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,795 1,799 1,781 1,782 1,796 1,789 -7 122,054 344,658
Jul-18 1,759 1,759 1,746 1,747 1,756 1,752 -4 404,016 481,506
Sep-18 1,759 1,759 1,741 1,745 1,754 1,750 -4 233,170 915,660
Nov-18 1,770 1,770 1,762 1,762 1,768 1,764 -4 110 846
Jan-19 1,777 1,782 1,768 1,770 1,771 1,774 3 19,188 100,834
Mar-19 1,786 1,790 1,780 1,780 1,785 1,782 -3 114 1,398
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,112,366 lots, or 64.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,100 3,101 3,051 3,067 3,077 3,071 -6 331,976 837,548
Jul-18 3,109 3,109 3,055 3,074 3,077 3,080 3 230,088 286,696
Aug-18 3,075 3,187 2,952 3,067 3,064 3,077 13 16 420
Sep-18 3,086 3,093 3,037 3,057 3,068 3,061 -7 1,460,026 2,426,670
Nov-18 3,073 3,075 3,023 3,034 3,058 3,040 -18 624 1,164
Dec-18 – – – 3,025 3,025 3,025 0 0 100
Jan-19 3,028 3,031 2,982 2,998 3,020 3,003 -17 88,910 317,064
Mar-19 3,012 3,015 2,975 2,985 3,021 2,995 -26 726 1,164
Palm Oil
Turnover: 398,688 lots, or 20.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,110 5,110 5,110 0 0 10
May-18 5,112 5,128 5,060 5,070 5,064 5,092 28 119,012 206,570
Jun-18 – – – 5,208 5,180 5,208 28 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,190 5,190 5,190 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,146 5,118 5,146 28 0 2
Sep-18 5,100 5,122 5,062 5,076 5,068 5,090 22 268,910 386,748
Oct-18 5,102 5,102 5,102 5,102 5,152 5,102 -50 2 4
Nov-18 5,202 5,202 5,196 5,196 5,182 5,200 18 6 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,236 5,218 5,236 18 0 0
Jan-19 5,110 5,130 4,826 5,090 5,080 5,090 10 10,758 44,708
Feb-19 – – – 5,082 5,082 5,082 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,158 5,158 5,158 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 734,456 lots, or 42.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,684 5,724 5,620 5,630 5,634 5,664 30 207,388 353,222
Jul-18 5,826 5,826 5,724 5,764 5,756 5,766 10 18 66
Aug-18 – – – 5,782 5,782 5,782 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,856 5,902 5,790 5,796 5,808 5,840 32 512,236 612,778
Nov-18 – – – 5,964 5,932 5,964 32 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 6,058 6,058 6,058 0 0 4
Jan-19 5,996 6,260 5,934 5,940 5,962 5,986 24 14,814 46,608
Mar-19 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018