About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – Mar 21
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed Mar 21, 2018 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING FEBRUARY 2018
————————————————————————
Feb-18 Jan-18 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 1,098 1,098
WHEAT HRS 0 0 600 600
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 8 798 799 R 1,597
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 149 14,869 18,960 R 33,829
CORN YELLOW 3,880 387,188 531,178 918,366
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 22 2,196 1,199 3,395
SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 1,326 132,320 165,652 297,972
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 699 699
WHEAT HRS 123 12,274 5,488 17,762
WHEAT HRW 1,344 134,119 86,220 220,339
WHEAT SRW 199 19,858 20,057 39,915
WHEAT SWH 24 2,395 2,296 4,691
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

DJ International Grain Council Cuts 2017-2018 Production Forecast
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Grains Council said Thursday that it has cut its global grain-production forecast in 2017-18 to 2,092 million metric tons, partly due to poor conditions in Argentina.
The new forecast represents a decrease of 2 million tons from February, and a 2.3% drop from the previous season’s record of 2,140 million tons, the IGC said, citing a worsening drought in eastern South America.
That forecast would still leave the season as one of the most successful on record, though.
The IGC report also included its first forecast for production in the 2018-19 season of 2,087 million tons, which would mark a second season of declining production after the record high level seen in 2016-17. That means that the 2018-19 season yield would be 0.2% smaller than that forecast for the 2017-18 season.
Driving that decline was the IGC’s forecast of a fall in wheat production outweighing increases for soybeans, maize and rice.
Maize-production forecasts for 2017-18 fell by 3 million tons in the latest report, and soybean production estimations were lowered by 6 million tons to 341 million tons amid Argentina’s worsening weather conditions.
The IGC, however, upped its wheat and rice production by 1 million and 2 million tons to 758 million tons and 485 million tons, respectively.
Rising consumption forecasts tightened the IGC’s outlook for carryover stocks.
Wheat was last up 0.17% at $4.48 a bushel, corn was flat at $3.66 a bushel and soybeans were last down 0.31% at $10.42 a bushel.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mostly a little lower, but recovered well from significant losses seen in the first part of the day. Forecasts have turned mostly dry again after better than expected rains over the weekend, but there are some forecasts for rains in parts of the drought areas around the end of the month. Demand is a problem for this market as the weekly export sales reports have been bad for many weeks. The demand needed to justify the ending stocks estimates from USDA is just not appearing, and there is some talk now that USDA will be forced to increase ending stocks estimates for the current crop in the next couple of monthly reports. US prices are too high when compared to the world competition, although recent futures weakness has put US prices more in line with those in the Black Sea. Wheat futures are still in a weather market, and it remains very dry in the western Great Plains. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation on Friday and early next week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 446 May. Support is at 450, 447, and 446 May, with resistance at 457, 461, and 465 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 458, 456, and 445 May, with resistance at 470, 476, and 481 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 594 and 572 May. Support is at 582, 579, and 576 May, and resistance is at 608, 613, and 618 May.

RICE: Rice was higher as the US Dollar moved lower. Traders are hoping for strong export demand to continue, but the limited supplies alone should be enough to keep the market supported. Any move lower might not last long and go very deep as the fundamental situation still remains bullish in the eyes of most analysts. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies, but trading is reported to be quiet. Little is offered and mills are not really pushing the price higher, but higher prices are being paid. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. The focus is turning to the end of the month and the quarterly stocks reports and the prospective plantings reports. The stocks on and off farm should be very low. Prospective plantings should not show major increases in planted area as other crops are still more profitable to plant. Planting is underway in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1219, 1213, and 1207 May, with resistance at 1250, 1254, and 1260 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed little changed after a day of uneventful trading. Many were waiting for the export sales report this morning to see if the strong demand was still there. Traders are also keeping an eye on the White House as it seems determined to start trade wars that could hurt US agricultural exports to China and others, including major Corn buyers Mexico and Canada. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher over time, but also must fight the big supplies still located in the US. Ethanol and export demand remain very strong. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. The market focus will turn now to the end of the month and the planting intentions reports along with the quarterly stocks reports. Traders expect planted area to be reduced for Corn due to costs of production and the lower prices that were seen until recently. The quarterly stocks will show the domestic demand and expecially the feed demand that has been a big question for the trade as no one knows for sure how strong feed demand has been in recent months.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.049 million barrels per day last week, up 2.3% from the previous week and up 0.4% from the previous year. Stocks were lower at 23.758 million barrels. Processors consumed 109.12 million bushels of Corn to make ethanol, and have now used 3.16 billion bushels this marketing year..
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 368 and 363 May. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 May, and resistance is at 378, 382, and 387 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 226, 223, and 220 May, and resistance is at 238, 242, and 248 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher. Soybean Oil was the leader on reports that President Trump might not tweak the RINS problems and instead leave it to congress to resolve. The move would probably mean that the current program and demand can stay intact. Support for Soybean Oil also came from news that a EU court had rejected the dumping tariffs imposed on Argentina and Indonesia for biofuels. These countries are no longer hurt by anti dumping tariffs, although there could be other reasons that the EU could use to restrict demand.. Argentina is dry again and there are different forecasts going forward, with some calling for more rains by the end of the month and others staying dry. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. The rains will not be enough to change the overall perspective of significant production losses for the country. Some demand is shifting to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high-priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. The US is the new place to turn for Soybeans and products, and they are available and getting bought as the very strong export sales report showed last week. But, traders are worried about tariffs that could be imposed by President Trump as the move by the US could really hurt its agricultural exports to China, Mexico, and many other countries. Strong domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1020 and 998 May. Support is at 1023, 1016, and 1013 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1050, and 1054 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 350.00 and 347.00 May. Support is at 363.00, 358.00, and 357.00 May, and resistance is at 370.00, 380.00, and 387.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3100 May, with resistance at 3250, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on follow through buying. Strength in world vegetable oils markets helped support Canola. The Canadian Dollar has turned firmer, but export sales have been active in the last couple of weeks on the move down in the Canadian Dollar. Charts show that trends are mixed. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower on news that Malaysia would impose a 5% export tax starting in April.. Indian buyers are now reported to be seeking to cancel about 100,000 tons in purchases after the government raised import tariffs in a big way. China is likely to import less due to big soybeans imports. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 525.00, 526.00, and 531.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2400, and 2370 June, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2490 June.

DJ Indonesia Palm Oil Production Likely to Hit 40.5M Metric Tons in 2018/19 — Market Talk
0301 GMT – Palm oil production in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, is forecast to increase to 40.5 million metric tons in 2018/19 from 38.5 million metric tons in the current year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s local office. It notes that exports in the current year is likely to be around 27.5 million metric tons, below the official forecast of 28 million metric tons and slightly below exports last year. Demand from EU, China and India fell in the last three months of 2017. The Bursa Malaysia benchmark palm oil is currently flat at 2,448 ringgit a ton.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through the week, although precipitation is likely in a narrow band on Friday and Saturday, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 41 May 160 May 63 May 28-May 15-May
April 45 May 60 May 28-May
May 50 May 60 May 42 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 4-May
May 85 May minus 6 May
June 87 July minus 12 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 21
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from ICE
Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 502.80 up 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 536.00 up 1.20
2 Can 523.00 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 556.00 up 1.20
2 Can 543.00 up 1.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 238.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 657.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,460 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 247.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9120)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 210,280 lots, or 7.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,725 3,756 3,690 3,715 3,711 3,716 5 183,690 163,942
Jul-18 3,769 3,769 3,769 3,769 3,739 3,769 30 2 6
Sep-18 3,751 3,778 3,735 3,754 3,746 3,752 6 26,088 58,126
Nov-18 – – – 3,798 3,798 3,798 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,819 3,838 3,800 3,815 3,809 3,821 12 490 3,554
Mar-19 – – – 3,804 3,804 3,804 0 0 2
May-19 3,858 3,859 3,858 3,859 3,855 3,858 3 6 124
Jul-19 – – – 3,831 3,831 3,831 0 0 2
Sep-19 3,881 3,881 3,880 3,880 3,873 3,880 7 4 20
Corn
Turnover: 1,012,808 lots, or 17.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,808 1,810 1,800 1,804 1,812 1,804 -8 210,374 511,244
Jul-18 1,764 1,765 1,745 1,750 1,765 1,756 -9 525,792 442,486
Sep-18 1,755 1,756 1,743 1,745 1,758 1,749 -9 258,930 832,814
Nov-18 1,770 1,770 1,759 1,760 1,773 1,762 -11 110 780
Jan-19 1,776 1,776 1,762 1,763 1,776 1,767 -9 17,028 99,318
Mar-19 1,784 1,784 1,777 1,781 1,785 1,781 -4 574 1,006
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,928,442 lots, or 58.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,024 3,036 3,016 3,021 3,017 3,026 9 422,878 1,124,158
Jul-18 3,015 3,022 3,002 3,010 2,997 3,013 16 326,638 308,078
Aug-18 3,009 3,013 3,002 3,005 2,990 3,007 17 56 412
Sep-18 2,998 3,016 2,994 3,000 2,989 3,005 16 1,073,702 2,192,530
Nov-18 2,972 2,993 2,972 2,984 2,959 2,987 28 240 896
Dec-18 2,974 2,975 2,974 2,975 2,943 2,974 31 16 122
Jan-19 2,955 2,979 2,955 2,966 2,941 2,967 26 104,728 311,106
Mar-19 2,935 2,957 2,935 2,945 2,924 2,949 25 184 502
Palm Oil
Turnover: 408,374 lots, or 20.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,110 5,110 5,110 0 0 10
May-18 5,142 5,168 5,118 5,120 5,128 5,138 10 243,932 280,372
Jun-18 – – – 5,180 5,172 5,180 8 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,190 5,190 5,190 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,110 5,140 5,102 5,118 5,112 5,122 10 160,858 349,856
Oct-18 – – – 5,152 5,152 5,152 0 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,186 5,186 5,186 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,272 5,262 5,272 10 0 0
Jan-19 5,114 5,146 5,096 5,130 5,116 5,130 14 3,584 40,720
Feb-19 – – – 5,128 5,128 5,128 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,158 5,158 5,158 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 416,162 lots, or 23.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,636 5,702 5,636 5,678 5,650 5,670 20 228,664 517,352
Jul-18 – – – 5,818 5,818 5,818 0 0 56
Aug-18 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,792 5,808 16 2 12
Sep-18 5,798 5,860 5,792 5,836 5,802 5,830 28 181,268 485,474
Nov-18 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 38
Dec-18 – – – 6,026 6,026 6,026 0 0 4
Jan-19 5,942 5,994 5,936 5,978 5,940 5,964 24 6,228 38,086
Mar-19 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018