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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

U.S. soybean acreage seen at record 92.1 mln in 2018 – survey – Reuters News
14-Mar-2018 10:00:00 AM
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CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) –
• U.S. farmers are expected to plant a record 92.104 million acres of soybeans in 2018 and 88.514 million acres of corn, according to an annual survey conducted by commodity brokerage and analytical firm Allendale Inc.
• Projected soybean plantings above latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast for 90.0 million acres and above 90.142 million acres planted in 2017.
• Projected corn plantings below latest USDA forecast for 90.0 million acres and below 90.167 million acres planted in 2017.
• The survey of farmers, traders and analysts in 27 states was conducted between Feb. 26 and March 9. During that time, Chicago Board of Trade new-crop November soybean futures SX8 notched a series of contract highs while new-crop December corn CZ8 reached seven-month highs.
• Allendale projects all U.S. wheat plantings at 46.889 million acres, above USDA forecast for 46.5 million and above 2017 planted area of 46.012 million acres.
• Allendale forecasts U.S. winter wheat acres at 32.554 million, down 152,000 from 2017. Other spring wheat acreage seen at 11.924 million, up 915,000 from 2017. Durum acres seen at 2.421 million, up 114,000 from 2017.
(Reporting by Karl Plume; Editing by Dan Grebler)
(( karl.plume@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 312 408 8704; Reuters Messaging: karl.plume.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 15
For the week ended Mar 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 162.8 56.7 22189.5 25366.4 4528.1 593.1
hrw 6.8 23.3 8732.4 10280.0 1358.3 114.6
srw 55.7 -6.7 2346.8 2248.2 636.4 118.3
hrs 59.7 27.2 5778.6 7965.2 1423.1 202.9
white 40.5 13.0 4960.0 4432.5 1015.0 103.8
durum 0.0 0.0 371.8 440.6 95.4 53.5
corn 2505.1 100.0 43631.6 45359.8 23419.5 1586.4
soybeans 1269.6 77.4 49274.6 53394.0 9607.5 1797.3
soymeal 173.3 7.8 8315.9 8151.7 3232.5 168.6
soyoil 31.6 0.0 578.3 721.9 209.2 0.8
upland cotton 321.4 199.2 13862.7 11584.5 7209.2 2569.4
pima cotton 7.4 0.0 542.5 528.1 193.1 41.1
sorghum 5.9 0.0 5222.0 3602.3 1714.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 52.9 24.3 26.5 39.4
rice 42.0 0.0 2170.1 2647.4 503.4 1.0

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mostly higher as hopes for beneficial rains in the western Great Plains seemed to go away. Forecasts still call for dry weather. Wheat futures are still in a weather market, and it remains very dry in the western Great Plains. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas, but La Nina is fading, so chances for rains should start to improve. However, the systems keep missing the area and go to the north instead. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. It was the strongest market yesterday. Black Sea prices remain firm. Russia and Europe have had some very cold weather in the last week and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends. The daily charts show that short term down trends are developing for Winter Wheat futures markets.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation on Thursday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after some light precipitation today. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 471 and 446 May. Support is at 483, 479, and 474 May, with resistance at 496, 498, and 510 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 510 and 487 May. Support is at 517, 513, and 504 May, with resistance at 530, 533, and 546 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 613, 608, and 596 May, and resistance is at 626, 630, and 636 May.

RICE: Rice was higher. Speculators keep selling, but most traders expect highe prices in theshort term and the charts show that futures are holding a strong suport área. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies, but trading is reported to be quiet. Little is offered and mills are not really pushing the Price higher, but higher prices are being paid. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions. World prices were also firmer last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1225 and 1208 May. Support is at 1222, 1219, and 1213 May, with resistance at 1238, 1243, and 1250 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower as late selling appeared in sympathy with Soybeans. Some forecasts for rains in Argentina and somewhat drier weather in central and northern Brazil created some of the carry interest. It is still a demand market, with the demand enhanced in part due to the lack of offer from South America. The export sales over the last couple of months have been the strongest in a long time, and sales for the marketing year are still on a pace to beat the USDA targts in a big way. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Argentina is now reportedly selling oled corn to Brazil as Brazil is short. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well.
Overnight News: Ethanol production fell to 1.025 million barrels per day in the week ending March 9, versus 1.057 million the previous week and 1.045 million the previous year. Estimated corn use for ethanol in the week ending March 9 totaled 105.5 million bushels, versus 108.8 million the previous week and 107.4 million the previous year. Estimated corn use to date for ethanol for the marketing year totals 2.923 billion bushels, which exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 55 million bushels. Ethanol stocks rose to a record 24.3 million barrels in the week ending March 9, versus 23.1 million the previous week and 22.8 million the previous year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 407 and 445 May. Support is at 387, 386, and 382 May, and resistance is at 393, 395, and 400 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 247 and 229 May. Support is at 252, 251, and 248 May, and resistance is at 258, 262, and 265 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower as forecasts for rains continued to be seen for Argentina. Funds were the best sellers, and some concern was noted about continued strong demand from the export market. Argentina is getting some rains, but producers say that the rains are arriving too late to do much good. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. The rains will not be enough to change the overall perspective of significant production losses for the country. USDA noted big supplies from previous crops still in Argentina and did not expect the US to get much new business as Argentina will probably sell some of these older supplies. Some demand has finally started to shift to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. The US is the new place to turn for Soybeans and products, and they are available and getting bought as the very strong export sales report showed last week. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1030, 1023, and 1016 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1044, and 1054 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 367.00 and 347.00 May. Support is at 371.00, 361.00, and 353.00 May, and resistance is at 380.00, 387.00, and 390.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3120 and 3020 May. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3100 May, with resistance at 3250, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola waslower on eaker Chicago Soybean Oil and despite reduced farm selling. Charts show that trends are still mostly down. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher on hopes for better demand. SGS showed that export demand did recover, but other private surveyors didn’t. Indian buyers are now reported to be seeking to cancel about 100,000 tons in purchases after the government raised import tariffs in a big way. China is likely to import less due to big soybeans imports. Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 604,034 tons so far this month, from 635,298 tons last month.AmSpec said that exports are 595,536 tons, from 608,447 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 509.00 and 498.00 May. Support is at 515.00, 510.00, and 507.00 May, with resistance at 523.00, 526.00, and 531.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2320 and 2200 May. Support is at 2400, 2370, and 2350 May, with resistance at 2440, 2450, and 2490 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through the weekend, although light precipitation is likely about Saturday, More significant precipitation is posible early nest week. Temnperatures near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 40 May 185 May 63 May 30-May 15-May
April 45 May 60 May 30-May
May 45 May 62 May 40 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
April 90 May minus 7 May
May 85 May minus 11 May
June 87 July minus 14 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 14
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 503.90 up 8.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 533.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 520.40 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 548.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 535.40 dn 2.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 239.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursdayday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,450 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 245.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9170)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 134,484 lots, or 4.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,638 3,645 3,601 3,638 3,628 3,626 -2 120,310 155,374
Jul-18 – – – 3,710 3,710 3,710 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,709 3,718 3,682 3,713 3,706 3,702 -4 13,682 48,910
Nov-18 – – – 3,764 3,764 3,764 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,777 3,788 3,750 3,788 3,774 3,767 -7 478 2,692
Mar-19 – – – 3,804 3,804 3,804 0 0 2
May-19 3,841 3,860 3,840 3,860 3,853 3,848 -5 8 142
Jul-19 – – – 3,824 3,824 3,824 0 0 2
Sep-19 3,824 3,896 3,824 3,872 3,824 3,864 40 6 2
Corn
Turnover: 814,044 lots, or 14.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,815 1,816 1,802 1,806 1,820 1,808 -12 335,486 665,956
Jul-18 1,782 1,787 1,775 1,777 1,787 1,780 -7 304,312 348,998
Sep-18 1,764 1,769 1,762 1,764 1,768 1,765 -3 151,990 743,084
Nov-18 1,767 1,770 1,765 1,767 1,770 1,768 -2 100 660
Jan-19 1,774 1,777 1,767 1,775 1,773 1,772 -1 21,530 94,388
Mar-19 1,785 1,785 1,776 1,777 1,773 1,780 7 626 422
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,208,266 lots, or 66.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,068 3,068 3,019 3,036 3,064 3,041 -23 1,072,210 1,526,750
Jul-18 3,036 3,041 2,990 3,011 3,036 3,018 -18 376,880 265,394
Aug-18 3,042 3,042 2,983 2,992 3,024 2,999 -25 94 368
Sep-18 3,022 3,024 2,974 2,995 3,017 2,995 -22 711,332 1,741,098
Nov-18 2,997 2,997 2,957 2,975 2,994 2,966 -28 186 964
Dec-18 2,966 2,978 2,966 2,970 2,975 2,970 -5 10 102
Jan-19 2,963 2,967 2,923 2,935 2,958 2,935 -23 47,034 261,764
Mar-19 2,957 2,961 2,913 2,917 2,958 2,930 -28 520 336
Palm Oil
Turnover: 289,980 lots, or 14.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,220 5,220 5,220 0 0 10
May-18 5,118 5,126 5,074 5,110 5,120 5,102 -18 189,276 321,794
Jun-18 – – – 5,224 5,224 5,224 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,140 5,148 5,104 5,124 5,136 5,122 -14 95,832 304,324
Oct-18 – – – 5,152 5,152 5,152 0 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,186 5,186 5,186 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,238 5,252 5,238 -14 0 0
Jan-19 5,138 5,150 5,112 5,128 5,140 5,130 -10 4,872 32,772
Feb-19 – – – 5,148 5,158 5,148 -10 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,158 5,158 5,158 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 343,068 lots, or 19.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,718 5,728 5,664 5,684 5,724 5,688 -36 209,526 578,304
Jul-18 – – – 5,818 5,818 5,818 0 0 56
Aug-18 – – – 5,860 5,860 5,860 0 0 14
Sep-18 5,860 5,874 5,806 5,822 5,872 5,828 -44 125,220 393,906
Nov-18 – – – 5,978 5,978 5,978 0 0 34
Dec-18 – – – 6,014 6,014 6,014 0 0 4
Jan-19 5,990 5,998 5,942 5,954 5,998 5,964 -34 8,322 30,082
Mar-19 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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