Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in nearby months and higher in new crop months on what appeared to be some speculative and perhaps some producer selling. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Export sales have been very strong and above many trade expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest. There have also been quality concerns left over from the hurricanes and the freeze during the growing season. On the other hand, the market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the region. So, buying interest in new crop months is much harder to find.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get dry weather for much of the week, but a lot of rain is likely on Saturday. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be warm, but will turn cool early next week and warm again by midweek. The USDA average price is now 80.20 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 87,725 bales, from 87,328 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 661 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are ,mixed. Support is at 8250, 8170, and 8070 May, with resistance of 8420, 8550, and 8660 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday. Futures remain in a trading range but show a weak appearance on both the daily and weekly charts and Florida remain mostly warm and dry. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. USDA estimated the crop at about 45 million boxes in its last report. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but the crop is small. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida are showing fruit of good sizes, and producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and warm temperatures. Temperatures will average near to below normal this weekend. Some showers are expected on Sunday.. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 7 delivery notices were posted today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 143.00, 146.00, and 147.00 May.
General Comments Futures were a little lower in New York and London. Both markets are looking for news to cause a move in either direction. The charts present a sideways appearance for now in New York and speculators remain very short. London charts are showing a sustained uptrend on the weekly charts, but a sideways appearance on the daily charts. Traders anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have seen no reason to cover the short position in a big way. New York traders are talking about good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop. There were reports from London of increased Vietnamese selling, and Robusta is now more available. These reports are not being backed by the price action, and Robusta remains the stronger market. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. Honduras has been a very active exporter and offers from most other countries are seen. Differentials in Central America are low and the buy side is quiet.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.912 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through the weekend and near to below normal for the first half of next week. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather, but some storms are possible in the far south. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,547 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 118.00 May. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 May, and resistance is at 122.00, 125.00 and 126.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1710 May, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets. Trends are down again in New York, but held the recent trading range in London. A short covering rally seems possible at this time. The overall feel of the market is that prices for now are cheap enough, but both New York and London appear to need a catalyst to work higher in a big way. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to the selling. India will export up to 1.0 million tons of Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Brazil still has plenty of Sugar to sell even with the different refining mix. The ISO expects production to outstrip demand by more than 5 million tons this year as the market recovers from a 2.5 million ton production deficit last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1250 May. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 May, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 May. Trends in London are mixed tpo down with objectives of 350.00 and 341.00 May. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 May, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 370.00 May.
General Comments Futures closed lower on Friday on what appeared to be some speculative long liquidation after the recent strong rally. It has been a big supply based rally and a pause is probably in or higher in both markets, and New York made new highs for the move. The weekly charts suggest that futures can move much higher and to or above 3300 in New York over time. Ideas of increasing demand and less production supported the market. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. Trends are up in both markets on the daily and weekly charts. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as long as prices stay generally weak as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.523 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 547 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2400, and 2340 May, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2600 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1730, 1680, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 May.
DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Mar 13
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for March 9, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 355 2,847.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 260 2,752.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 203 2,694.50
Ecuador 200 2,692.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 175 2,667.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.98 7,426.16
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.52 1,300.00
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018