Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher in nearby months and lower in new crop months. It was a consolidation day before the release of the monthly USDA supply and demand estimates that will be released later today. Demand has been strong and merchants have had trouble finding the Cotton in domestic cash markets. Prices overall have been much higher than most commercials had expected. Prices could remain strong until closer to harvest. There have also been quality concerns left over from the hurricanes and the freeze during the growing season. On the other hand, the market expects increased plantings in the western Great Plains due to all of the problems with the Winter Wheat crops in the region. So, buying interest in new crop months is much harder to find.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get dry weather for much of the week, but a lot of rain is likely on Saturday. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be warm, but will turn cool early next week and warm again by midweek. The USDA average price is now 79.83 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 93,613 bales, from 102,423 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 661 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 383,900 bales this year and 252,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 9,000 bales this year and 3,300 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are ,mixed. Support is at 8170, 8070, and 8030 May, with resistance of 8370, 8440, and 8550 May.
DJ U.S. January Cotton Exports-Mar 7
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jan 18 Dec 17 Nov 17 Jan 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 11,610,533 9,668,366 3,788,599 9,420,984
1 to 1 1/8 inch 141,614,762 115,639,211 70,082,315 129,710,115
upland 1 1/8 and over 194,177,953 162,753,213 73,806,219 199,551,706
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 11,115,077 16,470,795 10,622,850 5,420,046
All cotton 358,518,325 304,531,585 158,299,983 344,102,851
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jan 18 Dec 17 Nov 17 Jan 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 53,327 44,406 17,401 43,270
1 to 1 1/8 inch 650,431 531,127 321,885 595,754
upland 1 1/8 and over 891,852 747,519 338,989 916,534
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 51,051 75,650 48,790 24,894
All cotton 1,646,661 1,398,702 727,066 1,580,451
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Mar 5 2018 13:25:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as ten analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on March 8. Figures are in millions of bales.
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Feb. | 2016-17
US Production | 21.12| 20.70| 21.30| 21.26| 17.17
US Exports | 14.89| 14.50| 15.70| 14.50| 14.92
US End Stocks | 5.48| 4.20| 6.00| 6.00| 2.75
World | | | | |
Production | 120.67| 119.85| 121.10| 121.37| 106.57
World | | | | |
Consumption | 120.60| 120.00| 121.05| 120.50| 114.75
World End | | | | |
Stocks | 87.82| 86.98| 88.05| 88.55| 87.66
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 20.70| 15.70| 4.20| 120.30| 121.05| 86.98
Doane | 21.26| 15.00| 5.50| 121.00| 121.00| 87.50
Love Consulting | 21.26| 14.80| 5.70| 120.80| 120.50| 88.00
Price Futures Group| 21.00| 15.00| 5.50| 121.00| 120.50| 88.00
Rabobank | 21.00| 14.50| 5.70| 121.10| 120.50| 88.00
Rose Consulting | 21.26| 14.50| 6.00| 119.85| 120.50| 88.05
Texas A&M; Robinson| 21.26| 14.60| 5.90|n/a |n/a |n/a
Tullet Prebon | 21.26| 15.00| 5.50|n/a |n/a |n/a
Varner Bros. | 20.85| 15.25| 4.85| 120.80| 120.75| 88.00
Wedbush Securities | 21.30| 14.50| 5.90| 120.50| 120.00| 88.00
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower yesterday as the market gets ready for the next round of USDA reports that will be released later today. USDA estimated the crop at about 45 million boxes in its last report, and there does not seem to be any reason to expect a big production increase in its data for the marketing year. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and it is mostly dry, but the crop is small. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida are showing fruit of good sizes, and producers are now into the Valencia crop with the early and mid harvest completed. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Some early flowering has been reported in the groves, and some fruit is forming. Irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and warm temperatures. Temperatures will average near to below normal this weekend. Some showers are expected on Sunday.. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 7 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 139.00 and 131.00 May. Support is at 138.00, 136.00, and 135.00 May, with resistance at 143.00, 146.00, and 147.00 May.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Mar 6 2018 13:50:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of three analysts about the 2017-18
Florida orange crop. The USDA will release their estimate at
noon in Washington on March 8. Figures are in millions of 90-lb
Summary of Results: | Output
Survey Avg | 46.0
Survey Range | 43-50
USDA Feb. Estimate | 45.0
USDA 2016-17 Crop | 68.75
Analyst Estimates: |
Price Futures Group | 45.0
Optionsellers.com | 50.0
Infinity Trading | 43.0
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments Futures were lower in New York and a Little higher in London yesterday, and daily trends remain sideways in both markets. New York is holding above recent lows, but otherwise is having trouble finding new speculative buying interest. London has been the weaker market until now as Robusta now seems to be more available in the world market, but prices are holding in a range and are now at the top end of tat range. The funds remain very short, and commercial buying interest in cash markets remains hard to find. They anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and think that buyers are well covered right now. Other speculators seem interested in buying, but have not found real good reasons to do so. New York traders are noting the good weather currently being reported in Brazil and expect another bumper crop, although sources in Brazil have mixed opinions of just how big the crop is. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There are reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. Differentials in Central America are low and offers are on the table.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.904 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through the weekend and near to below normal for the first half of next week. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather, but some storms are possible in the far south. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 7 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries are the month are now 1,539 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 118.00 May. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 May, and resistance is at 124.00, 126.00 and 128.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1680 May, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 May.
DJ ECF Data Reveals European Coffee Stock Increase in January
By David Hodari
LONDON–European coffee stocks rose in the first month of 2017, increasing for the first time since June 2017, the European Coffee Federation said Thursday.
January stock data shows stocks rose for a fifth consecutive month, up 1.48% or 8,833 tons.
The total amount of beans in five major European coffee ports where the ECF tracks stocks, including Antwerp, Hamburg, Genoa, Le Havre and Trieste, fell to 595,544 tons by the end of January, up from 586,721 tons at the end of 2017.
The data revealed gains in just two ports, though, in Hamburg and Genoa. Inventories at Genoa–the third biggest stock-holder–increased 18.5% to 93,268 tons.
Stocks at Hamburg–the second largest stock holder–climbed by 3.1% to 115,997 tons.
Meanwhile, inventory at Antwerp, the largest stock holder, fell 2.6% to 321,519 tons. Le Havre’s and Trieste’s stocks fell by 0.3% and 7.3%, respectively.
The data release marked the completion of the first full year of data since the group ceased tracking Bremen, after a 14-month period during which figures for the port had been unavailable.
The figures follow the International Coffee Organization’s monthly market report, released Wednesday, in which the ICO described a fall in prices amid heavy exports from Vietnam in February.
London-traded robusta futures were last down 2.83% at $1,783 a ton and New York-traded arabica beans were up 0.12% at $1.21 a pound.
DJ Coffee Market Slides Despite Strong Exports -ICO
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price fell in February, resuming the fall of the four months to January, with prices down by an average of 1.2%.
The ICO composite indicator fell to 114.19 U.S. cents a pound from 115.60 U.S. cents in January, moving closer to the two-year low of $114 hit in December.
Prices for all groups of arabica coffee fell over the course of the month. Among arabica types, Brazilian naturals fell 2.3%, Colombian mild prices fell 1.6%, and other milds were down 1.8%. Robusta beans, however, ticked up 0.7%.
The arbitrage between low-grade robusta and its higher-quality peer fell 10.8%, with intraday volatility slipping 0.5%, the report said.
“World exports in December 2017 totaled 10.62 million bags, which is 0.7% higher than the 10.54 million bags shipped in December 2016,” the report said. While premium-grade arabica shipments fell 1.8%, that was mitigated by an increase in robusta shipments by 5.1% on the year.
Strong exports were behind robusta’s buoyancy, the ICO said. “This is largely due to increased shipments from Vietnam in January 2018, which are estimated at 3.29 million bags, nearly double the volume from one year ago.”
Global coffee exports during January 2018 totaled 11.01 million bags, up 20.7% compared to January 2017, the report added.
London-traded robusta was last flat at $1,727 a ton, while arabica was down 0.41% at $1.21 a pound.
General Comments: Futures were lower and price trends turned down again, mostly in reaction to the bearish analysis sent out by the ISO. It noted that Brazil, Thailand, and India all have bumper crops and that there will be a big surplus production this year.. Futures have developed a trading range in both markets over the last couple of weeks and have maintained the range except for the one day when futures spiked lower and gave a false signal of a new down trend. The market is now dealing with the idea that an important low could have seen made in this market. If so, it could mean the end of the major bear market. Futures could drift in a sideways to lower pattern if no bullish news is found, and there is not any around right now. Ideas that Sugar supplies available to the market can increase in the short-term have been key to the selling. India and Brazil are both selling into the world market. Thailand also has a lot of Sugar to sell. Ethanol demand continues strong, although Corn based ethanol has been cheaper and the choise for many buyers. Ideas are that petroleum prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. Even so, there are ideas that world Sugar supplies are still enough to meet any demand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through the weekend and near to below normal for the first half of next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1250 May. Support is at 13280, 1250, and 1220 May, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 341.00 May. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 May, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 370.00 May.
DJ Heavy Supply Dragged on Sugar Prices in February: ISO — Market Talk
1245 GMT – Raw sugar prices remained under heavy pressure from global supply in February, with abundant inventories pushing prices to a 12-month low of 12.97 U.S. cents on Feb. 27. Overall, average prices fell 3.7% from January, the International Sugar Organization says in its monthly market report. By the end of the month, Indian production was up 42% from the same point in the previous year, with Thai production up 20.6%. Datagro has upped its 2017-18 forecast to 3.7 million metric tons from 2.02 million tons beforehand, while the ISO released its forecast of 5.15 million tons. JP Morgan expects prices to recover thanks to rising oil prices. Raw sugar futures are down 1.19% at 13.29 cents.(email@example.com; @davidhodari)
General Comments Futures closed a little higher again in both markets, but the buying appeared to be less yesterday. It has been a big supply based rally and a a pause is probably in order. However, weekly charts suggest that futures can move much higher and to or above 3300 in New York over time. Ideas of increasing demand and less production supported the market. Most in the trade anticipate the increased demand, and current West Africa weather is hot enough and dry enough to create production concerns. There have been reports recently of delayed deliveries to ports. Trends are up in both markets on the daily and weekly charts. It has been hot and dry in many parts of West Africa, but showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last week to improve overall production conditions. The mid crop harvest is starting, and wire reports indicate that some initial mid crop harvest is underway in Nigeria. Demand has been improving and is likely to continue to improve as long as prices stay generally weak as processing margins are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.529 million bags.ICE ssid that 2 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 547 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2340, 2230, and 2180 May, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2520 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 800 May.
DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Mar 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2018—- —-Dec 2017—-
coffee -kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 110,649,237 243,981,568 118,000,620 260,191,367
coffee, roasted 6,896,008 15,205,698 7,504,288 16,546,955
instant 3,838,533 8,463,965 3,193,791 7,042,309
cocoa beans 71,224,443 157,049,897 31,603,139 69,684,921
10 lbs or over 2,365,990 5,217,008 1,546,132 3,409,221
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 11,401,109 25,139,445 8,463,794 18,662,666
not defatted 3,025,074 6,670,288 1,606,971 3,543,371
defatted 4,009,500 8,840,948 4,043,900 8,916,800
unsweetened 6,858,506 15,123,006 10,061,238 22,185,030
sweetened 55,576 122,545 97,256 214,449
coating 2,795,933 6,165,032 2,507,630 5,529,324
chocolate 9,410,922 20,751,083 8,641,017 19,053,442
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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