About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
5 YR TREASURY NOTE March Mar. 09, 2018 30 Dec 05, 2017
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 09, 2018 135 Mar 05, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 09, 2018 85 Mar 05, 2018
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 09, 2018 1 Feb 28, 2018
CORN March Mar. 09, 2018 178 Feb 27, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 09, 2018 4 Mar 01, 2018

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 8
For the week ended Mar 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 391.5 36.9 22026.7 25102.0 4700.1 536.3
hrw 43.3 3.5 8725.5 10147.1 1446.8 91.3
srw 60.5 11.4 2291.1 2197.3 645.7 125.0
hrs 122.6 7.4 5718.8 7901.4 1422.2 175.7
white 165.1 14.6 4919.4 4415.6 1090.0 90.9
durum 0.0 0.0 371.8 440.6 95.4 53.5
corn 1857.6 70.3 41126.5 44149.5 22320.8 1486.5
soybeans 2509.5 143.9 48005.0 52922.4 9237.9 1720.0
soymeal 200.6 0.0 8142.7 7762.2 3331.5 160.8
soyoil 34.0 0.0 546.7 757.6 198.2 0.8
upland cotton 383.9 252.1 13541.3 11268.1 7302.2 2370.2
pima cotton 9.0 3.3 535.1 503.9 211.2 41.1
sorghum -1.7 0.0 5318.8 3597.3 1894.1 0.0
barley 15.0 0.0 52.8 17.9 27.7 39.4
rice 63.1 0.0 2128.1 2594.3 523.8 1.0

Brazil’s total grain crop seen at 226.04 mln T – Reuters News
08-Mar-2018 06:15:43 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SAO PAULO, March 8 (Reuters) –
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total grain crop seen at 226.04 mln tns vs 225.57 mln tns seen in February and 237.67 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop seen at 113.02 mln tns vs 111.55 mln tns seen in February and 114.08 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total corn crop seen at 87.28 mln tns vs 88 mln tns seen in February and 97.84 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 avg soybean yields seen as 3,225 kg/hectare vs 3,364 kg/hectare in prior season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 first-corn crop seen at 25.12 mln tns vs 30.46 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 second-corn crop seen at 62.16 mln tns vs 67.38 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 average corn yields seen at 5,328 kg/hectare vs 5,562 kg/hectare last season – Conab

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-2017
Corn 2,299 2,222-2,352 2,352 2,293
Soybeans 529 478-590 530 302
Wheat 1,013 990-1,050 1,009 1181
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,325 540 1,009
AgriSource 2,322 510 1,000
Allendale 2,349 554 1,025
DC Analysis 2,227 478 1,009
Doane 2,227 490 1,025
EDFMan Capital 2,352 530 1,009
Farm Futures 2,277 510 1,020
Futures INTL 2,327 555 1,009
Hueber Report 2,333 530 998
INTL FCStone 2,240 580 1,035
Sid Love Consulting 2,252 530 1,009
MaxYield 2,300 530 1,050
Northstar 2,300 520 1,009
Price Group 2,302 530 1,009
RMC 2,342 520 1,009
RJ O’Brien 2,222 590 1,030
US Commodities 2,302 495 1,002
Vantage RM 2,352 540 999
Western Milling 2,328 513 990

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 198.9 191.0-204.0 203.1 229.8
Soybeans 95.5 93.7-98.0 98.1 96.1
Wheat 266.2 264.7-267.5 266.1 252.6
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 204.0 95.0 266.0
Allendale 202.8 96.2 266.9
Doane 199.0 94.0 266.0
EDFMan Capital 203.0 98.0 266.0
Farm Futures 197.0 95.0 267.0
Futures INTL 197.0 94.0 267.5
Hueber Report 200.3 95.2 264.7
INTL FCStone 192.3 93.7 266.8
MaxYield 201.0 97.1 266.0
Northstar 198.0 95.0 265.0
RMC 203.0 98.0 266.1
US Commodities 197.0 95.0 265.0
Western Milling 191.0 95.0 267.0

DJ March Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 91.8 86.2-95.0 95.0 98.5
Soybeans 114.0 112.0-116.0 112.0 114.1
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 95.0 114.0
Allendale 94.0 114.5
DC Analysis 89.0 115.0
Doane 90.0 115.0
EDF Man Capital 92.0 113.0
Farm Futures 92.0 115.0
Futures INTL 92.0 113.5
Hueber Report 94.3 114.0
INTL FCStone 86.2 112.9
Sid Love Consulti 93.0 114.0
MaxYield 95.0 114.0
North Star 93.0 114.0
Price Group 89.0 112.0
RMC 95.0 112.2
US Commodities 92.0 116.0
Western Milling 88.0 115.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 36.3 33.0-38.5 39.0 41.0
Soybeans 48.1 43.0-53.5 54.0 57.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 36.0 49.0
Allendale 38.0 47.5
DC Analysis 35.0 43.0
Doane 36.0 46.0
EDF Man Capital 37.0 48.0
Farm Futures 36.6 47.0
Futures INTL 35.0 48.0
Hueber Report 36.7 48.3
INTL FCStone 37.0 46.0
Sid Love Consulti 36.0 50.0
MaxYield 38.0 52.0
North Star 36.0 49.0
Price Group 36.0 49.0
RMC 38.5 53.5
US Commodities 36.0 49.0
Western Milling 33.0 45.0

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling in front of the next round of USDA supply and demand reports that will be released later this morning. Ideas are that USDA will make few changes of importance in its estimates. Wheat futures are in a weather market. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas and there are no real changes in the forecast to indicate improving conditions. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. Black Sea prices remain firm. Russia and Europe have had some very cold weather in the last week and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 523 May. Support is at 495, 493, and 479 May, with resistance at 510, 518, and 524 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 554 May. Support is at 526, 517, and 504 May, with resistance at 546, 548, and 550 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 615, 608, and 596 May, and resistance is at 630, 636, and 640 May.

RICE: Rice was little changed yesterday in light volume speculative trading. It has been quiet so far this week as the market waits for the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. Few changes are anticipated for the supply and demand reports. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1265 and 1305 May. Support is at 1236, 1226, and 1219 May, with resistance at 1254, 1260, and 1265 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower. Consolidation trading is expected today before the monthly USDA supply and demand estimates that will be released later this morning. USDA could raise Corn export demand, but will probably wait on any major changes until it sees the quarterly stocks data at the end of the month. The export sales over the last couple of months have been the strongest in a long time, and sales for the marketing year are still on a pace to beat the USDA targets in a big way. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher once the producer selling was completed. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. US farmers have reportedly sold a lot of Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales might be less now that the market is moving higher and as farmers now probably have much more manageable stocks in on farm storage. However, sources indicate that there is still a lot of Corn in first hands that needs to get moved.
Overnight News: Japan bought 110,000 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 407 and 445 May. Support is at 382, 379, and 375 May, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 264, 258, and 257 May, and resistance is at 270, 276, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on speculative selling before the USDA monthly supply and demand updates that will be released later this morning. Forecasts for rains to appear in Argentina next week also caused some selling. Few changes are expected in any of the USDA estimates. Better demand ideas for Soybeans did not provide much support as the speculators are already long. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina and too much rain in parts of central and northern Brazil. More dry weather now in the Argentine forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant. There is now some rain in the forecast for next week, but these rains might be too late to help too much. Production ideas are dropping by the day due to the weather related losses. Ideas that Soybeans in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. There has been too much rain in central and northern Brazil and crop losses are possible. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1090 May. Support is at 1063, 1056, and 1044 May, and resistance is at 1077, 1084, and 1096 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 419.00 May. Support is at 382.00, 378.00, and 371.00 May, and resistance is at 390.00, 400.00, and 404.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3200, 3190, and 3160 May, with resistance at 3250, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower, with strength in the Canadian Dollar hurting prices. Charts still show an up trend. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower on news that India had increased import taxes. Indian buyers are now reported to be seeking to cancel about 100,000 tons in purchases.. China is likely to import less due to big soybeans imports. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 526.00, 531.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2390, and 2360 May, with resistance at 2490, 2500, and 2530 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through the weekend, Temperatures near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 60 May 195 May 65 May 41 May 15-May
April 60 May 57 May 40 May
May 60 May 57 May 40 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 87 May minus 5 May
May 88 May minus 12 May
June 82 July minus 12 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 7
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 509.00 dn 4.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 532.20 dn 3.80
2 Can 519.20 dn 3.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 552.20 dn 3.80
2 Can 539.20 dn 3.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 235.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,430.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 235.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9060)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 126,984 lots, or 4.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 3,285 3,270 3,285 15 0 4
May-18 3,674 3,707 3,667 3,696 3,688 3,692 4 116,882 188,418
Jul-18 3,735 3,735 3,685 3,685 3,698 3,710 12 4 4
Sep-18 3,736 3,763 3,733 3,751 3,747 3,749 2 9,784 42,428
Nov-18 – – – 3,779 3,777 3,779 2 0 2
Jan-19 3,781 3,820 3,781 3,802 3,812 3,804 -8 296 2,238
Mar-19 – – – 3,804 3,804 3,804 0 0 2
May-19 3,862 3,863 3,850 3,850 3,861 3,856 -5 16 122
Jul-19 3,854 3,854 3,854 3,854 3,859 3,854 -5 2
Corn
Turnover: 1,019,102 lots, or 18.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 1,960 1,960 1,960 0 0 0
May-18 1,853 1,854 1,832 1,844 1,863 1,842 -21 535,206 825,512
Jul-18 1,799 1,799 1,780 1,788 1,807 1,788 -19 278,880 217,960
Sep-18 1,783 1,784 1,770 1,780 1,793 1,777 -16 189,728 696,862
Nov-18 1,777 1,777 1,770 1,774 1,786 1,775 -11 84 716
Jan-19 1,779 1,779 1,767 1,776 1,782 1,771 -11 15,204 90,566
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,370,188 lots, or 73.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 3,202 3,202 3,202 0 0 0
May-18 3,112 3,133 3,093 3,115 3,125 3,114 -11 1,329,986 1,853,138
Jul-18 3,091 3,107 3,078 3,100 3,097 3,095 -2 366,932 190,670
Aug-18 3,028 3,077 3,028 3,075 3,088 3,070 -18 72 266
Sep-18 3,064 3,089 3,046 3,071 3,082 3,068 -14 603,476 1,603,070
Nov-18 3,032 3,045 3,009 3,034 3,034 3,028 -6 426 798
Dec-18 3,010 3,010 2,982 2,990 2,994 2,988 -6 76 96
Jan-19 2,970 2,987 2,955 2,980 2,966 2,972 6 69,220 214,542
Palm Oil
Turnover: 495,202 lots, or 25.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,220 5,220 5,220 0 0 10
May-18 5,190 5,198 5,130 5,134 5,246 5,158 -88 369,754 362,204
Jun-18 – – – 5,258 5,258 5,258 0 0 4
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,242 5,242 5,242 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,192 5,194 5,144 5,156 5,220 5,168 -52 120,740 233,250
Oct-18 – – – 5,196 5,248 5,196 -52 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,282 5,334 5,282 -52 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,292 5,292 5,292 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,198 5,202 5,154 5,170 5,220 5,174 -46 4,672 18,694
Feb-19 5,234 5,234 5,232 5,232 5,324 5,232 -92 36 40
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 439,064 lots, or 25.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 4,958 4,958 4,958 0 0 4
May-18 5,752 5,764 5,716 5,732 5,796 5,738 -58 320,630 635,612
Jul-18 5,866 5,866 5,796 5,848 5,944 5,842 -102 30 44
Aug-18 5,878 5,884 5,878 5,884 5,940 5,880 -60 6 16
Sep-18 5,902 5,918 5,862 5,880 5,944 5,890 -54 116,648 331,420
Nov-18 – – – 6,082 6,082 6,082 0 0 22
Dec-18 6,080 6,080 6,080 6,080 5,948 6,080 132 2 2
Jan-19 6,026 6,052 5,994 6,014 6,078 6,022 -56 1,748 18,748
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322