About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 07, 2018 135 Feb 27, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 07, 2018 125 Mar 01, 2018
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 07, 2018 55 Feb 23, 2018
CORN March Mar. 07, 2018 213 Feb 27, 2018
ETHANOL March Mar. 07, 2018 47 Mar 05, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 07, 2018 10 Feb 28, 2018

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-2017
Corn 2,299 2,222-2,352 2,352 2,293
Soybeans 529 478-590 530 302
Wheat 1,013 990-1,050 1,009 1181
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,325 540 1,009
AgriSource 2,322 510 1,000
Allendale 2,349 554 1,025
DC Analysis 2,227 478 1,009
Doane 2,227 490 1,025
EDFMan Capital 2,352 530 1,009
Farm Futures 2,277 510 1,020
Futures INTL 2,327 555 1,009
Hueber Report 2,333 530 998
INTL FCStone 2,240 580 1,035
Sid Love Consulting 2,252 530 1,009
MaxYield 2,300 530 1,050
Northstar 2,300 520 1,009
Price Group 2,302 530 1,009
RMC 2,342 520 1,009
RJ O’Brien 2,222 590 1,030
US Commodities 2,302 495 1,002
Vantage RM 2,352 540 999
Western Milling 2,328 513 990

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 198.9 191.0-204.0 203.1 229.8
Soybeans 95.5 93.7-98.0 98.1 96.1
Wheat 266.2 264.7-267.5 266.1 252.6
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 204.0 95.0 266.0
Allendale 202.8 96.2 266.9
Doane 199.0 94.0 266.0
EDFMan Capital 203.0 98.0 266.0
Farm Futures 197.0 95.0 267.0
Futures INTL 197.0 94.0 267.5
Hueber Report 200.3 95.2 264.7
INTL FCStone 192.3 93.7 266.8
MaxYield 201.0 97.1 266.0
Northstar 198.0 95.0 265.0
RMC 203.0 98.0 266.1
US Commodities 197.0 95.0 265.0
Western Milling 191.0 95.0 267.0

DJ March Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 91.8 86.2-95.0 95.0 98.5
Soybeans 114.0 112.0-116.0 112.0 114.1
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 95.0 114.0
Allendale 94.0 114.5
DC Analysis 89.0 115.0
Doane 90.0 115.0
EDF Man Capital 92.0 113.0
Farm Futures 92.0 115.0
Futures INTL 92.0 113.5
Hueber Report 94.3 114.0
INTL FCStone 86.2 112.9
Sid Love Consulti 93.0 114.0
MaxYield 95.0 114.0
North Star 93.0 114.0
Price Group 89.0 112.0
RMC 95.0 112.2
US Commodities 92.0 116.0
Western Milling 88.0 115.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2016-17
Corn 36.3 33.0-38.5 39.0 41.0
Soybeans 48.1 43.0-53.5 54.0 57.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 36.0 49.0
Allendale 38.0 47.5
DC Analysis 35.0 43.0
Doane 36.0 46.0
EDF Man Capital 37.0 48.0
Farm Futures 36.6 47.0
Futures INTL 35.0 48.0
Hueber Report 36.7 48.3
INTL FCStone 37.0 46.0
Sid Love Consulti 36.0 50.0
MaxYield 38.0 52.0
North Star 36.0 49.0
Price Group 36.0 49.0
RMC 38.5 53.5
US Commodities 36.0 49.0
Western Milling 33.0 45.0

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher. Wheat futures are in a weather market, and this rally is more about supply problems in the US and supply and logistical problems in Europe and Russia. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas and there are no real changes in the forecast to indicate improving conditions. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. Black Sea prices remain firm. Russia and Europe have had some very cold weather in the last week and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on today. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some big precipitation is forecast for today. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas today. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 523 May. Support is at 493, 479, and 474 May, with resistance at 518, 524, and 529 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 554 May. Support is at 526, 517, and 504 May, with resistance at 548, 550, and 552 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 615, 608, and 596 May, and resistance is at 636, 640, and 645 May.

RICE: Rice closed slightly higher yesterday in light volume speculative trading. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1265 and 1305 May. Support is at 1236, 1226, and 1219 May, with resistance at 1260, 1265, and 1270 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on strong demand ideas and increasing basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico and in some interior locations. The export sales report released last Thursday was strong once again, and sales over the last couple of months have been the strongest in a long time. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher once the producer selling was completed. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. US farmers have reportedly sold a lot of Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales might be less now that the market is moving higher and as farmers now probably have much more manageable stocks in on farm storage.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 407 and 445 May. Support is at 379, 375, and 372 May, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 264, 258, and 257 May, and resistance is at 276, 279, and 281 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were lower. Better demand ideas for Soybeans supported the nearby months of Soybeans. Big supply ideas for here in the US and around the world for vegetable oils hurt Soybean Oil. However, Argentina is the worlds largest exporter of Soybean Oil, so the down side in this market could be limited. The export sales report was strong for Soybeans. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina and too much rain in parts of central and northern Brazil. More dry weather now in the Argentine forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant. Production ideas are dropping by the day due to the weather related losses. Ideas that Soybeans production in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. There has been too much rain in central and northern Brazil and crop losses are possible. The amount of potential loss has been subject to debate and there is no clear trade consensus on the loss potential. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season. Forecasts are drier again, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by hot and dry conditions. Basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been strong and are getting stronger. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
Overnight News: China bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1090 May. Support is at 1056, 1044, and 1037 May, and resistance is at 1084, 1096, and 1108 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 419.00 May. Support is at 390.00, 388.00, and 384.00 May, and resistance is at 400.00, 404.00, and 406.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3310 May. Support is at 3200, 3190, and 3160 May, with resistance at 3300, 3350, and 3380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher, with weakness in the Canadian Dollar supporting prices. Charts still show an up trend. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little higher on remarks made by Dorab Mistry. He expects overall demand for Palm Oil and vegetable oils in general to be strong and to help rally prices this year. Chinais likely to import less due to big soybeans imports. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 532.00 May. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 529.00, 530.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2660 and 2770 May. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2570, 2590, and 2620 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation through midweek, then dry into the weekend, Temperatures near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 52 May 195 May 63 May 41 May 8-May
April 54 May 58 May 42 May
May 54 May 58 May 42 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
March 79 May minus 11 May
April 79 May minus 11 May
May 83 May minus 16 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 510.10 up 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 540.50 up 3.40
2 Can 527.50 up 3.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 560.50 up 3.40
2 Can 547.50 up 3.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 235.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 660.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 660.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 672.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 615.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,510.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 240.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9020)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 106,104 lots, or 3.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,265 3,278 3,264 3,270 3,268 3,270 2 630 350
May-18 3,705 3,705 3,678 3,691 3,692 3,689 -3 95,606 191,658
Jul-18 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,755 3,770 15 2 10
Sep-18 3,752 3,764 3,737 3,754 3,734 3,752 18 9,042 42,280
Nov-18 – – – 3,777 3,777 3,777 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,822 3,830 3,812 3,817 3,804 3,821 17 810 2,472
Mar-19 – – – 3,804 3,800 3,804 4 0 2
May-19 3,869 3,875 3,861 3,867 3,853 3,868 15 14 134
Jul-19 – – – 3,859 3,845 3,859 14 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 727,658 lots, or 13.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 1,960 1,960 1,960 0 0 0
May-18 1,870 1,884 1,870 1,877 1,863 1,877 14 414,430 923,466
Jul-18 1,817 1,821 1,812 1,815 1,806 1,814 8 133,244 178,584
Sep-18 1,805 1,811 1,802 1,809 1,797 1,807 10 159,810 644,756
Nov-18 1,785 1,796 1,785 1,793 1,784 1,791 7 72 704
Jan-19 1,785 1,798 1,783 1,796 1,782 1,792 10 20,102 88,660
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,346,844 lots, or 72.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 3,202 3,202 3,202 0 0 0
May-18 3,124 3,142 3,103 3,123 3,123 3,122 -1 1,491,098 2,004,756
Jul-18 3,103 3,114 3,078 3,098 3,103 3,099 -4 227,422 146,280
Aug-18 3,081 3,090 3,076 3,083 3,073 3,079 6 32 282
Sep-18 3,064 3,083 3,050 3,070 3,055 3,067 12 571,380 1,280,188
Nov-18 3,030 3,043 3,023 3,025 3,021 3,032 11 848 794
Dec-18 2,989 2,989 2,979 2,979 2,974 2,979 5 40 52
Jan-19 2,965 2,976 2,952 2,954 2,956 2,959 3 56,024 193,000
Palm Oil
Turnover: 371,422 lots, or 19.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 0
Apr-18 5,268 5,268 5,220 5,220 5,404 5,244 -160 4 10
May-18 5,248 5,286 5,242 5,256 5,242 5,264 22 292,166 375,954
Jun-18 – – – 5,296 5,296 5,296 0 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,278 5,256 5,278 22 0 2
Sep-18 5,256 5,260 5,216 5,236 5,234 5,240 6 75,748 225,958
Oct-18 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 0
Nov-18 5,332 5,332 5,332 5,332 5,344 5,332 -12 6 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,292 5,302 5,292 -10 0 0
Jan-19 5,268 5,268 5,220 5,232 5,232 5,240 8 3,498 16,682
Feb-19 – – – 5,212 5,212 5,212 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 393,604 lots, or 23.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 4,958 4,958 4,958 0 0 8
May-18 5,886 5,890 5,826 5,832 5,848 5,852 4 288,640 654,782
Jul-18 5,966 5,968 5,944 5,944 5,864 5,960 96 26 32
Aug-18 – – – 5,940 5,940 5,940 0 0 14
Sep-18 6,020 6,042 5,970 5,978 6,002 6,004 2 102,552 310,914
Nov-18 – – – 6,082 6,082 6,082 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,948 5,948 5,948 0 0 2
Jan-19 6,140 6,166 6,104 6,112 6,128 6,134 6 2,386 17,418
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322