About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 05, 2018 98 Feb 16, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 05, 2018 1049 Mar 01, 2018
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 05, 2018 20 Feb 15, 2018
CORN March Mar. 05, 2018 25 Feb 07, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 05, 2018 76 Feb 28, 2018
OATS March Mar. 05, 2018 4 Feb 27, 2018
SOYBEAN March Mar. 05, 2018 89 Feb 26, 2018

DJ World Food Prices Up 1.1% in February: FAO Index
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in February, after three straight months of falls, as the prices among cereals and dairy products rose, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO’s food-price index increased by 1.1% last month from January. Despite the early year rise, average food prices were still 2.7% lower than they were in the same month last year, the report said.
The cereal-price index climbed 2.5% from January, with prices “underpinned by a brisk trade activity and concerns over unfavourable weather adversely affecting the U.S. winter wheat and Argentina’s maize growing regions,” the U.N. body’s report said.
Dairy prices gained 6.2%, the FAO said, with strong import demand and lower-than-expected output from New Zealand partly responsible, the report said.
The price of vegetable oil slumped a further 3.1% on the month, hitting a 19-month low. Most vegetable-oil prices dropped given growing expectations of a global surplus this year. Higher-than-expected palm oil inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia also continued to weigh on prices, the report said.
Sugar prices were also weaker, dropping 3.4% on the month, hitting their lowest level in two years. Widespread expectations of production surpluses in Thailand and India added to concerns of gluts in Russia, China and the European Union.
Meat prices stayed the same from January, and were 5% lower on year, with more expensive bovine meat being balanced by cheaper poultry and pig-meat quotations.

USDA Monthly Crush Data:
Trade was looking for a soybean crush of 5.201 mt in January
—-174.6 mil bu of soybeans used in January versus 173.4 mil a month ago
• USDA SAYS 5.24 MLN TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN JANUARY
• USDA SAYS 476.1 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN JANUARY, UP FROM 473.6 MILLION A YEAR AGO
• USDA SAYS 1.986 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN JANUARY, DOWN FROM 2.074 MILLION A YEAR AGO

WHEAT
General Comments Chicago Winter Wheat markets were sharply higher and Minneapolis closed higher. The export sales report was weak, but this rally is more about supply in the US and supply and logistical problems in Europe and Russia. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. Black Sea prices remain firm due to currency considerations and some logistical problems in Russia. Russia and Europe are getting some very cold weather now and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 523 May. Support is at 499, 493, and 479 May, with resistance at 524, 529, and 536 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 554 May. Support is at 528, 517, and 504 May, with resistance at 547, 550, and 552 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 627, 624, and 620 May, and resistance is at 640, 645, and 657 May.

RICE: Rice closed a little higher yesterday on strong export sales and despite Word that Iraq has postponed a tender for US Rice. Trends turned up on the daily charts. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1265 and 1305 May. Support is at 1246, 1243, and 1226 May, with resistance at 1265, 1270, and 1275 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comment:s Corn closed higher on strong demand ideas and increasing basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico and in some interior locations. The export sales report was strong once again, and sales over the last couple of months have been the strongest in a long time.. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher once the producer selling was completed. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the corn planted well. US farmers have reportedly sold a lot of Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales might be less now that the market is moving higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 407 and 445 May. Support is at 379, 375, and 372 May, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 267, 264, and 257 May, and resistance is at 276, 279, and 281 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher. The export sales report was strong for Soybeans, but not really for the products. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. More dry weather now in the forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant. Production ideas are dropping by the day due to the weather related losses. Basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been strong and are getting stronger. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Ideas that Soybeans production in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. There has been too much rain in central and northern Brazil and crop losses are possible. The amount of potential loss has been subject to debate and there is no clear trade consensus on the loss potential. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season. Forecasts are drier again, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by hot and dry conditions.
Overnight News: China bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 121,000 tons of US Soybeans and 20,000 tons of Soybean Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1070 and 1090 May. Support is at 1056, 1044, and 1037 May, and resistance is at 1072, 1084, and 1096 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 402.00 and 419.00 May. Support is at 390.00, 388.00, and 381.00 May, and resistance is at 400.00, 403.00, and 406.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3310 May. Support is at 3200, 3190, and 3160 May, with resistance at 3260, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher, with weakness in the Canadian Dollar supporting prices. Charts still show an up trend. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was sharply lower on reports that Chinese demand can be less due to big Soybeans imports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 532.00 May. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 529.00, 530.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2660 and 2770 May. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2570, 2590, and 2620 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today, then dry into the weekend, Temperatures near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 61 March 195 May 55 May 46 March 8-Mar
April 51 May 55 May 34 May
May 51 May 55 May 40 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
March 70 May minus 10 May
April 70 May minus 10 May
May 72 May minus 17 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 1
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 502.00 up 2.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 535.20 up 1.20
2 Can 522.20 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 555.20 up 1.20
2 Can 542.20 up 1.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 662.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 662.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 655.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 667.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 610.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,570.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 245.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9020)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 290,976 lots, or 10.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,230 3,280 3,230 3,240 3,216 3,242 26 86 250
May-18 3,670 3,743 3,660 3,711 3,676 3,706 30 252,012 214,052
Jul-18 3,755 3,755 3,755 3,755 3,721 3,755 34 2 8
Sep-18 3,745 3,782 3,714 3,755 3,748 3,751 3 37,430 41,632
Nov-18 3,792 3,792 3,792 3,792 3,785 3,792 7 2 4
Jan-19 3,811 3,848 3,783 3,816 3,814 3,821 7 1,402 2,296
Mar-19 – – – 3,799 3,799 3,799 0 0 2
May-19 3,850 3,900 3,833 3,881 3,863 3,875 12 42 126
Jul-19 – – – 3,866 3,855 3,866 11 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 1,072,566 lots, or 19.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,860 1,860 1,820 1,860 1,864 1,852 -12 52 360
May-18 1,831 1,854 1,827 1,840 1,832 1,840 8 598,408 899,984
Jul-18 1,795 1,812 1,793 1,795 1,799 1,799 0 285,734 152,628
Sep-18 1,783 1,801 1,782 1,786 1,786 1,791 5 173,760 541,808
Nov-18 1,777 1,784 1,777 1,779 1,778 1,780 2 148 722
Jan-19 1,777 1,785 1,773 1,774 1,776 1,778 2 14,464 62,248
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,739,738 lots, or 11.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,212 3,212 3,200 3,200 3,031 3,202 171 232 0
May-18 3,045 3,159 3,039 3,129 3,028 3,109 81 2,708,168 2,079,602
Jul-18 3,022 3,133 3,016 3,105 3,005 3,077 72 251,514 123,770
Aug-18 2,998 3,098 2,998 3,073 2,997 3,074 77 74 276
Sep-18 2,983 3,091 2,983 3,069 2,976 3,047 71 707,856 1,140,794
Nov-18 2,977 3,055 2,973 3,035 2,949 3,005 56 1,154 760
Dec-18 2,958 3,013 2,927 3,010 2,926 2,947 21 50 58
Jan-19 2,889 2,992 2,889 2,975 2,901 2,958 57 70,690 134,222
Palm Oil
Turnover: 868,534 lots, or 45.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,404 5,404 5,404 0 0 10
May-18 5,318 5,332 5,250 5,266 5,322 5,290 -32 637,102 392,882
Jun-18 – – – 5,344 5,376 5,344 -32 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 5,390 5,390 5,284 5,284 5,334 5,336 2 4 2
Sep-18 5,268 5,326 5,230 5,252 5,296 5,268 -28 225,364 199,916
Oct-18 – – – 5,280 5,280 5,280 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,378 5,406 5,378 -28 0 10
Dec-18 5,358 5,358 5,300 5,300 5,374 5,336 -38 10 0
Jan-19 5,262 5,306 5,222 5,240 5,284 5,256 -28 6,054 14,644
Feb-19 – – – 5,234 5,260 5,234 -26 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 935,322 lots, or 54.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 4,958 4,958 4,958 0 0 8
May-18 5,780 5,892 5,752 5,854 5,788 5,828 40 731,412 696,474
Jul-18 5,992 5,992 5,874 5,986 5,764 5,938 174 24 16
Aug-18 – – – 5,940 5,864 5,940 76 0 14
Sep-18 5,902 6,052 5,898 6,010 5,936 5,980 44 198,490 302,156
Nov-18 6,080 6,080 6,080 6,080 6,016 6,080 64 2 20
Dec-18 – – – 5,948 5,948 5,948 0 0 2
Jan-19 6,050 6,180 6,036 6,134 6,072 6,100 28 5,394 14,424
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322