About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 02, 2018 150 Feb 16, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 02, 2018 1610 Feb 28, 2018
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 02, 2018 131 Feb 15, 2018
CORN March Mar. 02, 2018 25 Nov 13, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 02, 2018 134 Feb 27, 2018
OATS March Mar. 02, 2018 8 Feb 27, 2018
SOYBEAN March Mar. 02, 2018 101 Feb 23, 2018

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Mar 1
For the week ended Feb 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 191.1 45.2 21635.3 24710.4 4670.1 499.4
hrw 74.9 0.0 8682.3 10063.3 1599.0 87.8
srw 72.9 3.2 2230.6 2149.8 699.9 113.7
hrs -36.2 42.0 5596.2 7770.7 1348.9 168.2
white 59.5 0.0 4754.4 4310.5 926.9 76.3
durum 20.0 0.0 371.8 416.1 95.4 53.5
corn 1753.0 0.0 39304.4 43408.3 21540.0 1416.2
soybeans 857.9 122.1 45571.3 52502.5 7726.0 1576.1
soymeal 139.0 0.0 7942.1 7460.3 3443.5 160.8
soyoil 16.6 0.0 512.7 749.2 180.7 0.8
upland cotton 294.1 118.2 13157.5 11019.1 7442.5 2118.1
pima cotton 5.4 0.0 526.2 489.7 229.3 37.8
sorghum -2.1 0.0 5320.5 3487.2 2317.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 37.9 17.9 13.0 39.4
rice 95.3 1.0 2065.0 2522.2 567.7 1.0

DJ World Food Prices Up 1.1% in February: FAO Index
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in February, after three straight months of falls, as the prices among cereals and dairy products rose, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO’s food-price index increased by 1.1% last month from January. Despite the early year rise, average food prices were still 2.7% lower than they were in the same month last year, the report said.
The cereal-price index climbed 2.5% from January, with prices “underpinned by a brisk trade activity and concerns over unfavourable weather adversely affecting the U.S. winter wheat and Argentina’s maize growing regions,” the U.N. body’s report said.
Dairy prices gained 6.2%, the FAO said, with strong import demand and lower-than-expected output from New Zealand partly responsible, the report said.
The price of vegetable oil slumped a further 3.1% on the month, hitting a 19-month low. Most vegetable-oil prices dropped given growing expectations of a global surplus this year. Higher-than-expected palm oil inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia also continued to weigh on prices, the report said.
Sugar prices were also weaker, dropping 3.4% on the month, hitting their lowest level in two years. Widespread expectations of production surpluses in Thailand and India added to concerns of gluts in Russia, China and the European Union.
Meat prices stayed the same from January, and were 5% lower on year, with more expensive bovine meat being balanced by cheaper poultry and pig-meat quotations.

WHEAT
General Comments Chicago Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis closed mostly a little higher. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. Black Sea prices remain firm due to currency considerations and some logistical problems in Russia. Russia and Europe are getting some very cold weather now and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 501 and 523 May. Support is at 493, 479, and 474 May, with resistance at 505, 508, and 516 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 554 May. Support is at 517, 504, and 498 May, with resistance at 528, 531, and 538 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 615, 608, and 596 May, and resistance is at 625, 634, and 640 May.

RICE: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday as Iraq tendered for US Rice. The price action suggests that Iraq bought and that the only question i show much was purchased. A purchase by Iraq would be interesting as US prices were reported to be generally higher than those of the competition. Trends turned up on the daily charts. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1265 and 1305 May. Support is at 1250, 1243, and 1226 May, with resistance at 1265, 1270, and 1275 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comment:s Corn closed higher on strong demand ideas and increasing basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico and in some interior locations. Some buy stops were touched off as futures moved to the highest level seen in about six months. Ideas are that Corn was mostly following Wheat and Soybeans, but Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher once the producer selling was completed. Oats were slightly higher. Corn remains mostly a demand market. The weekly export sales report was strong. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. Ethanol production for the week was 1.044 million barrels per day, down about 2% from the previous week, but slightly higher than last year. Total production was 7.308 million barrels, up about 1% from the previous week and down slightly from the previous year. Cumulative Corn demand for the marketing year is now 2.83 billion bushels. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the corn planted well. US farmers have reportedly sold a lot of Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales might be less now that the market is moving higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 407 and 445 May. Support is at 379, 375, and 372 May, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 267, 264, and 257 May, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 281 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was lower. The leader was Soybean Meal as the trade expects new Business from countries that normally buy from Argentina. Soybean Meal moved to new highs, but faded from these highs in the second part of the day. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. More dry weather now in the forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant. Production ideas are dropping by the day due to the weather related losses. Basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been strong and are getting stronger. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Ideas that Soybeans production in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. There has been too much rain in central and northern Brazil and crop losses are possible. The amount of potential loss has been subject to debate and there is no clear trade consensus on the loss potential. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season. Forecasts are drier again, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by hot and dry conditions.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans and that unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1065, 1070, and 1090 May. Support is at 1044, 1037, and 1030 May, and resistance is at 1060, 1072, and 1084 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 402.00 and 419.00 May. Support is at 390.00, 388.00, and 381.00 May, and resistance is at 400.00, 403.00, and 406.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3310 May. Support is at 3220, 3200, and 3160 May, with resistance at 3300, 3350, and 3380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher, with weakness in the Canadian Dollar supporting prices. Charts still show an up trend. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower in line with weakness in Chicago. Demand is holding strong and production is in a seasonal decline.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 532.00 May. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 526.00, 529.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2660 and 2770 May. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2570, 2590, and 2620 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today, then dry into the weekend, t-Temperatures near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 61 March 195 May 75 March 45 March 8-Mar
April 54 May 61 May 36 May
May 54 May 61 May 38 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
March 70 May minus 16 May
April 70 May minus 16 May
May 72 May minus 17 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 28
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 500.00 dn 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 534.00 up 2.00
2 Can 521.00 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 554.00 up 2.00
2 Can 541.00 up 2.00
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 232.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 622.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,570.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 265.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9260)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 152,252 lots, or 5.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,199 3,249 3,195 3,230 3,193 3,216 23 566 1,658
May-18 3,656 3,691 3,656 3,677 3,650 3,676 26 134,418 209,268
Jul-18 3,725 3,749 3,691 3,708 3,710 3,721 11 22 10
Sep-18 3,736 3,763 3,735 3,747 3,727 3,748 21 16,680 42,640
Nov-18 3,746 3,824 3,746 3,824 3,728 3,785 57 4 6
Jan-19 3,808 3,829 3,803 3,819 3,796 3,814 18 530 2,382
Mar-19 – – – 3,799 3,782 3,799 17 0 2
May-19 3,870 3,872 3,850 3,860 3,854 3,863 9 30 132
Jul-19 3,855 3,855 3,855 3,855 3,897 3,855 -42 2 2
Corn
Turnover: 770,750 lots, or 13.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,864 1,864 1,864 1,864 1,860 1,864 4 86 5,686
May-18 1,836 1,839 1,827 1,828 1,828 1,832 4 394,478 842,944
Jul-18 1,809 1,809 1,785 1,793 1,799 1,799 0 234,148 134,088
Sep-18 1,795 1,795 1,780 1,781 1,787 1,786 -1 134,868 502,184
Nov-18 1,782 1,782 1,774 1,776 1,779 1,778 -1 306 710
Jan-19 1,777 1,781 1,772 1,773 1,774 1,776 2 6,864 55,202
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,006,438 lots, or 60.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 3,031 3,031 3,031 0 0 2,882
May-18 3,010 3,057 3,000 3,054 2,996 3,028 32 1,373,052 2,072,020
Jul-18 3,009 3,037 2,993 3,028 2,983 3,005 22 191,172 110,802
Aug-18 2,975 3,023 2,970 3,015 2,965 2,997 32 18 248
Sep-18 2,965 3,003 2,948 3,001 2,949 2,976 27 402,878 1,049,086
Nov-18 2,939 2,984 2,924 2,982 2,920 2,949 29 798 642
Dec-18 2,910 2,932 2,910 2,932 2,916 2,926 10 12 30
Jan-19 2,901 2,922 2,886 2,919 2,889 2,901 12 38,508 121,436
Palm Oil
Turnover: 313,440 lots, or 16.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 5,246 5,246 5,246 5,246 5,098 5,246 148 2 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,404 5,252 5,404 152 0 10
May-18 5,338 5,350 5,290 5,340 5,292 5,322 30 260,870 427,256
Jun-18 5,344 5,410 5,344 5,410 5,314 5,376 62 4 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,334 5,334 5,334 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,308 5,312 5,270 5,300 5,272 5,296 24 49,308 151,088
Oct-18 – – – 5,280 5,258 5,280 22 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,406 5,382 5,406 24 0 10
Dec-18 5,438 5,438 5,312 5,312 5,360 5,374 14 20 10
Jan-19 5,298 5,302 5,262 5,282 5,270 5,284 14 3,236 11,578
Feb-19 – – – 5,260 5,248 5,260 12 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 363,994 lots, or 21.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 4,880 5,038 4,880 5,038 5,190 4,958 -232 8 8
May-18 5,798 5,808 5,766 5,798 5,774 5,788 14 283,866 731,200
Jul-18 – – – 5,764 5,752 5,764 12 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,864 5,850 5,864 14 0 14
Sep-18 5,946 5,958 5,916 5,944 5,920 5,936 16 78,248 282,738
Nov-18 5,998 6,036 5,998 6,014 6,050 6,016 -34 6 22
Dec-18 5,948 5,948 5,948 5,948 6,050 5,948 -102 2 2
Jan-19 6,086 6,092 6,052 6,076 6,068 6,072 4 1,864 11,934
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322