About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Feb 28
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 01, 2018 9 Nov 09, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 01, 2018 1786 Feb 26, 2018
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 01, 2018 939 Feb 12, 2018
CORN March Mar. 01, 2018 25 Aug 10, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 01, 2018 134 Jan 11, 2018
OATS March Mar. 01, 2018 7 Nov 27, 2017
SOYBEAN March Mar. 01, 2018 101 Jul 13, 2017
EU WHEAT March Mar. 01, 2018 10 Feb 16, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Chicago Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis closed mixed. The US remains partly a weather market, with La Nina conditions affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. New crop ratings were released this week and the crop condition should remain generally much below average. A large part of the crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. World estimates in general remain large. US prices will need to remain competitive with European and Russian prices to get much business, and US demand is not strong right now. However, Black Sea prices have been firm recently due to currency considerations and some logistical problems in Russia. Russia and Europe are getting some very cold weather now and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 465, 461, and 457 May, with resistance at 479, 481, and 495 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 526 and 554 May. Support is at 487, 483, and 480 May, with resistance at 509, 517, and 528 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 596, 590, and 575 May, and resistance is at 617, 621, and 625 May.

RICE: Rice closed higher yesterday, and futures remain in a short-term trading range. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions. Cash market traders suggest that the commercials are still short bought and it looks like they are finally moving to get covered. Prices for next year are expected to be lower. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1203, 1199, and 1181 May, with resistance at 1228, 1230, and 1236 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 28
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.96 10.21 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.59 10.55 0.00
Broken 9.63 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comment:s Corn closed higher on strong demand ideas and increasing basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico and in some interior locations. Oats were higher and are back into the previous trading range. Corn remains mostly a demand market. The weekly export sales report was strong and the sales pace is still well above USDA projections for the marketing year. Another strong sales report is expected tomorrow. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. The US Dollar appears to be in a longer term downtrend, so additional export demand is possible and has been seen. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the corn planted well. US farmers have reportedly sold a lot of Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales prevented futures from working any higher last week and have been reasons to turn the short-term trends to sideways.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 375, 372, and 369 May, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 389 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 264, 257, and 255 May, and resistance is at 272, 274, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was lower. The leader was Soybean Meal as the trade expects new Business from countries that normally buy from Argentina. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. Significant Corn production potential has already been lost in that country, and more dry weather now in the forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant as well. However, the potential production losses have not really resulted in a lot of new export business for the US until now. Even so, basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been strong and are getting stronger. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Ideas that Soybeans production in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. There has been too much rain in central and northern Brazil and crop losses are possible. The amount of potential loss has been subject to debate and there is no clear trade consensus on the loss potential. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season. Forecasts are drier again, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by hot and dry conditions.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 250,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1065, 1070, and 1090 May. Support is at 1037, 1030, and 1026 May, and resistance is at 1060, 1072, and 1084 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 402.00 and 419.00 May. Support is at 382.00, 378.00, and 373.00 May, and resistance is at 391.00, 394.00, and 397.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3310 May. Support is at 3240, 3220, and 3200 May, with resistance at 3300, 3350, and 3380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed, with weakness in the Canadian Dollar supporting prices and weakness in Chicago Soybean Oil hurting prices. Charts still show an up trend. Weaker prices in Chicago went with reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness Farmers remain slow sellers and end-user demand is called solid. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher on strength in competing vegetable oils and on currency considerations. Demand is holding strong and production is in a seasonal decline.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.167 million in February, from 1.312 million in January.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 532.00 May. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 526.00, 529.00, and 532.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2480, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2550, 2570, and 2590 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today and Thursday,Ttemperatures above normal through today, then near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 65 March 214 March 75 March 52 March 8-Mar
March 61 March 70 March 45 March
April 52 May 55 May 38 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 61 May minus 17 May
April 68 May minus 18 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 27
Winnipeg, Feb. 27 – The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 501.00 up 5.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 532.00 up 0.10
2 Can 519.00 up 0.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 552.00 up 0.10
2 Can 539.00 up 0.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 232.00 up 2.00
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 232.00 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 670.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 670.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 622.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,580 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 267.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9220)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 100,952 lots, or 3.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,207 3,215 3,180 3,205 3,200 3,193 -7 3,224 5,176
May-18 3,646 3,665 3,636 3,660 3,636 3,650 14 91,258 211,594
Jul-18 3,710 3,710 3,710 3,710 3,657 3,710 53 2 4
Sep-18 3,724 3,742 3,712 3,739 3,714 3,727 13 6,078 37,330
Nov-18 3,728 3,728 3,728 3,728 3,680 3,728 48 2 6
Jan-19 3,795 3,810 3,780 3,808 3,781 3,796 15 346 2,410
Mar-19 – – – 3,782 3,768 3,782 14 0 2
May-19 3,839 3,868 3,836 3,868 3,833 3,854 21 40 122
Jul-19 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,860 3,897 37 2
Corn
Turnover: 367,670 lots, or 6.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,842 1,864 1,817 1,862 1,842 1,860 18 6,366 10,964
May-18 1,823 1,833 1,823 1,830 1,827 1,828 1 274,142 867,672
Jul-18 1,800 1,803 1,796 1,799 1,792 1,799 7 28,158 109,552
Sep-18 1,788 1,791 1,784 1,790 1,787 1,787 0 54,540 485,676
Nov-18 1,779 1,781 1,778 1,780 1,778 1,779 1 108 644
Jan-19 1,776 1,778 1,771 1,775 1,774 1,774 0 4,356 54,430
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,440,020 lots, or 42.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,007 3,070 3,001 3,030 3,007 3,031 24 56 2,882
May-18 2,977 3,015 2,969 3,008 2,977 2,996 19 1,024,922 1,982,354
Jul-18 2,986 3,004 2,958 2,996 2,977 2,983 6 45,242 64,954
Aug-18 2,970 2,978 2,960 2,966 2,944 2,965 21 70 252
Sep-18 2,930 2,967 2,923 2,963 2,933 2,949 16 326,300 964,356
Nov-18 2,922 2,945 2,908 2,935 2,922 2,920 -2 640 506
Dec-18 2,916 2,916 2,916 2,916 2,891 2,916 25 6 24
Jan-19 2,870 2,905 2,862 2,900 2,869 2,889 20 42,784 113,808
Palm Oil
Turnover: 317,362 lots, or 16.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,252 5,252 5,252 0 0 10
May-18 5,278 5,334 5,264 5,330 5,282 5,292 10 267,488 444,268
Jun-18 – – – 5,314 5,302 5,314 12 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,334 5,334 5,334 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,270 5,304 5,248 5,304 5,280 5,272 -8 47,680 142,566
Oct-18 – – – 5,258 5,264 5,258 -6 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,382 5,382 5,382 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,360 5,368 5,360 -8 0 0
Jan-19 5,264 5,288 5,248 5,288 5,278 5,270 -8 2,194 9,318
Feb-19 – – – 5,248 5,248 5,248 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 377,874 lots, or 21.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 5,346 5,350 5,148 5,298 5,302 5,190 -112 26 8
May-18 5,762 5,810 5,744 5,796 5,766 5,774 8 294,106 744,110
Jul-18 – – – 5,752 5,746 5,752 6 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,850 5,842 5,850 8 0 14
Sep-18 5,896 5,958 5,888 5,946 5,914 5,920 6 79,846 266,962
Nov-18 – – – 6,050 6,050 6,050 0 0 22
Dec-18 6,008 6,104 6,000 6,000 6,092 6,050 -42 62 2
Jan-19 6,036 6,094 6,026 6,086 6,050 6,068 18 3,834 10,948
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322