About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 26
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 22, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/22/2018 02/15/2018 02/23/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 220 72 20,606 30,999
CORN 1,305,853 938,099 1,459,795 17,950,458 25,909,691
FLAXSEED 0 24 1,126 4,745 21,230
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 899 599 10,582 12,893
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 59,193 268,414 133,959 2,646,938 3,178,953
SOYBEANS 761,961 962,050 707,981 37,775,260 43,430,044
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 280,243 424,231 543,469 17,828,384 18,931,984
Total 2,407,250 2,593,937 2,847,001 76,236,973 91,515,794
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Chicago Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis closed higher. The US remains partly a weather market, with La Nina conditions affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. A drought remains in the region and has become serious. New crop ratings should be released this week and the crop condition should remain generally much below average. All of the reporting states in the Great Plains have previously showed that very little of the crop can be rate in good to excellent condition. A large part of the crop is now rated in poor to very poor condition. World estimates in general remain large and even reduced US production cannot change this fact very much. US prices will need to remain competitive with European and Russian prices to get much business, and US demand is not strong right now. However, Black Sea prices have been firm recently due to currency considerations and some logistical problems in Russia. Russia and Europe are getting some very cold weather now and some traders expect to hear reports of Winterkill and production losses from both areas this week. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends. However, Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices are weak.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 461, 457, and 451 May, with resistance at 479, 481, and 495 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 483, 480, and 479 May, with resistance at 500, 509, and 517 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 609, 596, and 590 May, and resistance is at 617, 621, and 625 May.

RICE: Rice closed lower again yesterday. Prices appear to have turned more stable just above 1200 May futures However, speculative selling and a lack of enthusiastic end-user buying has created the current weaker environment.. Cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supply availability. Reports indicate that Texas producers are about sold out for the marketing year. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers in the state, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. Limited amounts of Rice are reported to be owned by farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi as well. The amount of Rice still owned by farmers in Arkansas and Missouri is less clear, but the cash market indicates tight conditions. Cash market traders suggest that the commercials are still short bought and it looks like they are finally moving to get covered. Prices for next year are expected to be lower, and USDA showed improved production potential at its Outlook Conference on Friday. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1205 May. Support is at 1203, 1199, and 1180 May, with resistance at 1228, 1230, and 1236 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comment:s Corn closed higher on strong demand ideas. Oats were higher. Corn remains mostly a demand market. The weekly export sales report was strong and the sales pace is still well above USDA projections for the marketing year. Ethanol demand also remains very strong. The US Dollar appears to be in a longer term downtrend, so additional export demand is possible and is appearing. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the corn planted well. Overall demand other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong, although Sorghum demand ideas got hurt when China announced an investigation into imports of US Sorghum. China has been a very strong buyer of US Sorghum. US farmers have reportedly sold quite a bit Corn on the rally as they have held the Corn in farm storage for too long. These sales prevented futures from working any higher last week and have been reasons to turn the short-term trends to sideways. Not much if any selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 375, 372, and 369 May, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 389 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 264, 257, and 255 May, and resistance is at 268, 272, and 274 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and products were higher. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. Significant Corn production potential has already been lost in that country, and more dry weather now in the forecast implies that Soybeans production losses will be significant as well. However, the potential production losses have not really resulted in a lot of new export business for the US, although some new business has been seen in the products. Current crop new export sales were net negative last week. The low export sales total for the week once again highlighted the fact that US Soybeans prices have been stronger lately and also highlighted talk of quality concerns in US Soybeans. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Ideas that Soybeans production in Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still support prices in the market, but production estimates for Brazil remain high at near 114 million tons. Some talk of Brazil production at or above 117 million tons. Argentine production estimates now range from 45 to 50 million tons, from closer to 55 million at the start of the growing season. Forecasts are drier again, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by hot and dry conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1065 May. Support is at 1037, 1030, and 1026 May, and resistance is at 1050, 1053, and 1060 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 378.00, 373.00, and 371.00 May, and resistance is at 386.00, 388.00, and 391.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3310 May. Support is at 3240, 3220, and 3200 May, with resistance at 3300, 3350, and 3380 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with other vegetable oils markets. Charts still show an up trend. Weaker prices in Chicago went with reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness Farmers remain slow sellers and end-user demand is called solid. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher on positive demand news and strength in competing vegetable oils. Demand is holding strong and production is in a seasonal decline.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 519.00 and 532.00 May. Support is at 515.00, 510.00, and 508.00 May, with resistance at 522.00, 526.00, and 529.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2480, and 2450 May, with resistance at 2550, 2570, and 2590 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday, Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, then near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 65 March 214 March 80 March 42 March 8-Mar
March 58 March 65 March 40 March
April 52 May 52 May 30-May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 63 March minus 12 May
April 54 May minus 22 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 26
WINNIPEG–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 495.70 up 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 531.90 up 10.20
2 Can 518.90 up 10.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 551.90 up 10.20
2 Can 538.90 up 10.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 230.00 up 6.00
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 230.00 up 6.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 675.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 665.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 675.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 665.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 625.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 2,560.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 270.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9105)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 115,914 lots, or 4.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,185 3,210 3,183 3,203 3,180 3,200 20 2,540 6,010
May-18 3,627 3,655 3,624 3,651 3,632 3,636 4 107,228 212,380
Jul-18 – – – 3,657 3,657 3,657 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,713 3,728 3,702 3,723 3,707 3,714 7 5,912 36,902
Nov-18 – – – 3,680 3,680 3,680 0 0 6
Jan-19 3,785 3,797 3,775 3,797 3,784 3,781 -3 222 2,402
Mar-19 – – – 3,768 3,770 3,768 -2 0 2
May-19 3,839 3,839 3,822 3,832 3,827 3,833 6 12 136
Jul-19 – – – 3,860 3,860 3,860 0 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 411,760 lots, or 7.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,821 1,858 1,820 1,831 1,813 1,842 29 1,672 12,196
May-18 1,830 1,831 1,824 1,828 1,826 1,827 1 249,386 835,338
Jul-18 1,799 1,800 1,790 1,797 1,790 1,792 2 110,134 105,628
Sep-18 1,791 1,793 1,785 1,786 1,789 1,787 -2 47,066 471,666
Nov-18 1,778 1,780 1,777 1,777 1,778 1,778 0 56 676
Jan-19 1,774 1,777 1,772 1,775 1,771 1,774 3 3,446 53,226
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,122,842 lots, or 33.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,962 3,070 2,962 3,070 3,014 3,007 -7 18 2,936
May-18 2,978 2,994 2,967 2,972 2,974 2,977 3 723,748 1,863,690
Jul-18 2,978 2,994 2,967 2,967 2,974 2,977 3 100,892 60,416
Aug-18 2,946 2,958 2,933 2,935 2,936 2,944 8 18 262
Sep-18 2,938 2,956 2,919 2,926 2,938 2,933 -5 260,936 913,154
Nov-18 2,944 2,947 2,913 2,918 2,935 2,922 -13 470 550
Dec-18 2,901 2,901 2,881 2,881 2,910 2,891 -19 4 22
Jan-19 2,880 2,887 2,858 2,864 2,881 2,869 -12 36,756 103,770
Palm Oil
Turnover: 334,720 lots, or 17.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 2
Apr-18 5,252 5,252 5,252 5,252 5,242 5,252 10 2 10
May-18 5,284 5,300 5,262 5,296 5,264 5,282 18 264,736 443,250
Jun-18 – – – 5,302 5,240 5,302 62 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,334 5,334 5,334 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,302 5,310 5,268 5,276 5,292 5,280 -12 67,414 142,354
Oct-18 – – – 5,264 5,274 5,264 -10 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,382 5,382 5,382 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,368 5,368 5,368 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,290 5,302 5,260 5,264 5,290 5,278 -12 2,568 8,520
Feb-19 – – – 5,248 5,258 5,248 -10 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 313,936 lots, or 18.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,302 5,302 5,302 0 0 28
May-18 5,788 5,794 5,748 5,766 5,764 5,766 2 263,050 762,622
Jul-18 – – – 5,746 5,746 5,746 0 0 12
Aug-18 5,842 5,842 5,842 5,842 5,868 5,842 -26 2 14
Sep-18 5,942 5,942 5,896 5,908 5,914 5,914 0 48,470 251,298
Nov-18 6,050 6,050 6,050 6,050 5,996 6,050 54 2 22
Dec-18 6,116 6,116 6,060 6,106 5,904 6,092 188 10 4
Jan-19 6,070 6,076 6,032 6,048 6,052 6,050 -2 2,402 9,584
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322