About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

Despite lackluster exports & active farmer selling, Mar Beans advanced 15 cents

In a holiday-shortened week – once again on the back of Argentine dryness!  Fears that

Sudden rains would push the mkt limit-down – have been replaced by reports that have

Escalated the % of land impacted up to 2/3 – also dryness in the WW areas has supported!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 761,961mt (600-900) – Fri Sales were

119,000mt  (200-450)

Feb 26           132,000          Beans        China

Feb 23           106,000          Beans        Unk

Feb 22           110,000           Beans        Unk


Bean Crop  –       4.320 BB (ly – 4.392)

Yield  –       48.5 B/A  (ly – 49.1)

Ending Stocks    460 MB (ly – 530)

  • ARGENTINA – clearly the 800 Pound Gorilla in the room – dryness & heat

In this country has been the dominant fundamental in the grain complex –

All year

  • MEAL IS THE UPSIDE LEADER – in grains 2018 “BULL RUN” advancing

Nearly $90 since early Jan –every major grain we’ve  witnessed has been

Led by meal

  • OUTSIDE MKTS – the US Dollar is still 1000 points off last Springs highs –

Even though it has recently rallied 50% since late last summer – positive

For both ethanol demand & inflation

  • THE SPEC IS CHANGING HORSES? Would you rather be long a stock mkt at

record highs or a commodity mkt on 10 year lows?

Will dryness in Argentina & the WW belt continue its La Nina tendencies

To the CORN BELT for our planting & growing season!  Should that happen, prices

Could be explosive –coming off 10 yr lows!

Coming off the President’s Day W/E, Mar Corn languished in a tight trading range –

Confining the weeks 4 closes to a 3 cent spread!  Nov Beans tried to pull it up with a 16

Cent gain – while Mar Wht was a negative influence with a 5 cent down week.  Producer

Selling capped rally attempts – however, the Mar Corn contract – acquitted itself well

Closing at 366!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,305,857 mmt (800 – 1.17) –

Fri sales were 1.620 mmt (1.0 – 1.5)

Feb 26          125,000          Unk       17-18

Feb 23          115,000          Egypt    17-18

Feb 22          130,000          Unk        17-18


Corn Crop          14,390 bb  (ly – 14.604)

Yield           174 b/a      (ly –  176.6)

Ending Stocks    2.272bb  (ly – 2352)

  • SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – is mostly impacting Mar Beans – as the

Bean crop over there is the one taking the real hit

  • US CORN CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD –when you combine 10 year low prices &

A cheap US Dollar – you get a price very attractive to our foreign trading

Partners Feeding off 10 year low prices, a cheap US Dollar & La Nina, Mar Corn

Is rallying along with all the other members of the grain complex.  However, maybe the

BIGGEST QUESTION of 2018 lies in the next 6 months & how much the La Nina Phenonomen

Will impact the US planting & growing season!  We’ve already seen the damage it has exacted

Upon Argentina & the US Winter Wheat belt!  Should that creep into the corn belt, then

Prices are way too low!!

Wheat is mostly a weather mkt so far this year with dryness in the Plains

Igniting a 50 cent rally (415-465)!  When rain entered the forecast last week, the mkt

Corrected 20 cent (465-445), but this week, it completely recovered that loss with a 464 ½

Close today.  Exports, Russia’s wht crop & the mkt action in beans & corn have a secondary

Effect on the Mar Wht contract, but mostly the draught in the key WW states such as

Kansas & Oklahoma is paramount in determining price direction!

Feb cat is definitely “between a rock & a hard place” – with supply 7 demand

Duking it out in the past 4 days – leading to closes all within $1.00of each other!

  • 1st Qtr Beef Production is expected to be 4.3% over last year & 2nd Qtr up 12%
  • Yet cash beef prices have been stout
  • Both the Cold Storage & Cattle-On-Feed last week were bearish but the mkt

Was able to hold up

  • The COF was the highest since 2012 & placements were the highest

Jan # since 2006

However, the 2/21 Key Reversal down on the charts may have tipped the

Scales to the downside!

Waiting for the anticipated big jump in pork production this year is like

“waiting for the other shoe to drop”!  But, it looks like it’s happening sooner in the hogs

Than the cattle – as of today, April Hogs plummeted to 6 month lows.  The recent Cold Storage

& Cattle-on-Feed Reports confirmed that big #’s are coming-  and lately, demand has

Been unable to stave them off!


Bill Moore

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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