William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Despite lackluster exports & active farmer selling, Mar Beans advanced 15 cents
In a holiday-shortened week – once again on the back of Argentine dryness! Fears that
Sudden rains would push the mkt limit-down – have been replaced by reports that have
Escalated the % of land impacted up to 2/3 – also dryness in the WW areas has supported!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 761,961mt (600-900) – Fri Sales were
Feb 26 132,000 Beans China
Feb 23 106,000 Beans Unk
Feb 22 110,000 Beans Unk
- USDA AG FORUM
Bean Crop – 4.320 BB (ly – 4.392)
Yield – 48.5 B/A (ly – 49.1)
Ending Stocks 460 MB (ly – 530)
- ARGENTINA – clearly the 800 Pound Gorilla in the room – dryness & heat
In this country has been the dominant fundamental in the grain complex –
- MEAL IS THE UPSIDE LEADER – in grains 2018 “BULL RUN” advancing
Nearly $90 since early Jan –every major grain we’ve witnessed has been
Led by meal
- OUTSIDE MKTS – the US Dollar is still 1000 points off last Springs highs –
Even though it has recently rallied 50% since late last summer – positive
For both ethanol demand & inflation
- THE SPEC IS CHANGING HORSES? Would you rather be long a stock mkt at
record highs or a commodity mkt on 10 year lows?
Will dryness in Argentina & the WW belt continue its La Nina tendencies
To the CORN BELT for our planting & growing season! Should that happen, prices
Could be explosive –coming off 10 yr lows!
Coming off the President’s Day W/E, Mar Corn languished in a tight trading range –
Confining the weeks 4 closes to a 3 cent spread! Nov Beans tried to pull it up with a 16
Cent gain – while Mar Wht was a negative influence with a 5 cent down week. Producer
Selling capped rally attempts – however, the Mar Corn contract – acquitted itself well
Closing at 366!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,305,857 mmt (800 – 1.17) –
Fri sales were 1.620 mmt (1.0 – 1.5)
Feb 26 125,000 Unk 17-18
Feb 23 115,000 Egypt 17-18
Feb 22 130,000 Unk 17-18
- USDA AG FORUM
Corn Crop 14,390 bb (ly – 14.604)
Yield 174 b/a (ly – 176.6)
Ending Stocks 2.272bb (ly – 2352)
- SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – is mostly impacting Mar Beans – as the
Bean crop over there is the one taking the real hit
- US CORN CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD –when you combine 10 year low prices &
A cheap US Dollar – you get a price very attractive to our foreign trading
Partners Feeding off 10 year low prices, a cheap US Dollar & La Nina, Mar Corn
Is rallying along with all the other members of the grain complex. However, maybe the
BIGGEST QUESTION of 2018 lies in the next 6 months & how much the La Nina Phenonomen
Will impact the US planting & growing season! We’ve already seen the damage it has exacted
Upon Argentina & the US Winter Wheat belt! Should that creep into the corn belt, then
Prices are way too low!!
Wheat is mostly a weather mkt so far this year with dryness in the Plains
Igniting a 50 cent rally (415-465)! When rain entered the forecast last week, the mkt
Corrected 20 cent (465-445), but this week, it completely recovered that loss with a 464 ½
Close today. Exports, Russia’s wht crop & the mkt action in beans & corn have a secondary
Effect on the Mar Wht contract, but mostly the draught in the key WW states such as
Kansas & Oklahoma is paramount in determining price direction!
Feb cat is definitely “between a rock & a hard place” – with supply 7 demand
Duking it out in the past 4 days – leading to closes all within $1.00of each other!
- 1st Qtr Beef Production is expected to be 4.3% over last year & 2nd Qtr up 12%
- Yet cash beef prices have been stout
- Both the Cold Storage & Cattle-On-Feed last week were bearish but the mkt
Was able to hold up
- The COF was the highest since 2012 & placements were the highest
Jan # since 2006
However, the 2/21 Key Reversal down on the charts may have tipped the
Scales to the downside!
Waiting for the anticipated big jump in pork production this year is like
“waiting for the other shoe to drop”! But, it looks like it’s happening sooner in the hogs
Than the cattle – as of today, April Hogs plummeted to 6 month lows. The recent Cold Storage
& Cattle-on-Feed Reports confirmed that big #’s are coming- and lately, demand has
Been unable to stave them off!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337
A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018
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