Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 01-Feb-2018 02:00:47 PM – USDA SAYS 5.29 MLN TONS (176.422 million bu. ) OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN DECEMBER
USDA SAYS 5.29 MLN TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN DECEMBER –
Alerts History
• 01-Feb-2018 02:00:49 PM – USDA SAYS 487.4 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN DECEMBER, UP FROM 474.0 MILLION A YEAR AGO
• 01-Feb-2018 02:00:49 PM – USDA SAYS 1.966 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN DECEMBER, DOWN FROM 2.096 MILLION A YEAR AGO
USDA SAYS 1.966 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN DECEMBER, DOWN FROM 2.096 MILLION A YEAR AGO –

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed mixed to lower, with speculators on both sides of the market. It is still a weather market, but traders also noted the bad export sales and wondered if the US prices were too high for the demand. Hard Red Winter Wheat futures held better than the other markets as this class of Wheat is the most affected by the Great Plains drought. The Dollar remains in a downtrend that has been underway for quite some time, but was stable to a little higher yesterday. Chicago markets are finding overall support from continued dry weather in the US Great Plains. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in mostly sideways trends. Russian prices are firmer.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 459, 463, and 486 March. Support is at 443, 426, and 422 March, with resistance at 459, 460, and 461 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 486 March. Support is at 458, 451, and 444 March, with resistance at 471, 477, and 484 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 605, 600, and 594 March, and resistance is at 614, 621, and 628 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed in quiet trading. Futures were able to hold in response to a stronger weekly export sales report, but did little more during the session as the net sales totals were nota ll that big. Either way, though, the sales were solid and a net positive for the trade. The current supply situation remains tight and is supporting prices. Cash market traders suggest that the commercials are short bought and will need to buy sooner or later, but they have been quiet since the start of the calendar year and before. Prices for next year are expected to be lower, and spreads are showing the nearby months are generally gaining much faster than deferred. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices. The old crops to new crop spreads show a big difference that reflects the relative fundamental ideas in the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1251, 1268, and 1274 March. Support is at 1230, 1227, and 1220 March, with resistance at 1251, 1253, and 1259 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged and Oats were mostly higher on forecasts for the dry Argentine weather pattern to continue well into February. Current Argentine forecasts call for hot and dry weather for at least the next week. The weekly export sales report showed the strongest net Corn sales for the year and added to buying interest. Sorghum sales were also strong. US Corn is very cheap, and offers from South America are really not available until the middle of the US Summer. Oats closed firmer. Corn trends are up. A weaker US Dollar is helping demand ideas and is causing buying. There is still too much farmer owned Corn and farmers are reported to be starting to sell the Corn as prices move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catalyst for any rally as speculators are very short the market. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 370 March. Support is at 357, 354, and 351 March, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 367 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 259, 257, and 254 March, and resistance is at 270, 273, and 275 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling tied to chart patterns and reports of some rains in Argentina. The rains were confined to a small area, and now dry weather forecasts for Argentina and mixed forecasts for Brazil remain. No rain is expected in Argentina for at least the next week, although some forecasts call for some rains after that. The export sales report was bad for Soybeans, but good for Soybean Meal. About half of the Soybean Meal sales were to Philippines and had already been reported in the daily announcements. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal as export demand has been disappointing lately. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the market. Forecasts are drier again into later this month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brazil has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. Central and northern Brazil are now forecast to get excessive rains this week.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 969, 949, and 943 March. Support is at 977, 974, and 961 March, and resistance is at 989, 995, and 1002 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 320.00 and 306.00 March. Support is at 328.00, 326.00, and 323.00 March, and resistance is at 335.00, 337.00, and 340.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3210 March, with resistance at 3320, 3340, and 3350 March.

Alerts History
• 01-Feb-2018 12:01:05 PM – ARGENTINA 2017/18 SOY CROP SEEN AT 51 MLN TONNES VS PRELIMINARY FORECAST OF 54 MLN TONNES – BUENOS AIRES EXCHANGE
• 01-Feb-2018 12:03:07 PM – LARGE PARTS OF ARGENTINE SOY AREA AT CRITICAL STAGE UNDER ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS – BUENOS AIRES EXCHANGE
Argentina soy crop estimate cut to 51 mln tonnes from 54 mln -exchange – Reuters News
01-Feb-2018 12:09:11 PM
BUENOS AIRES, Feb 1 (Reuters) – Argentine farmers are expected to harvest 51 million tonnes of soy in the 2017-18 season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly crop report on Thursday, citing drought as the reason for cutting a preliminary estimate of 54 million tonnes.
(Reporting by Maximiliano Rizzi and Hugh Bronstein; Editing by James Dalgleish)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower for the second day. Charts still show a sideways trend as prices held support. Weaker prices in Chicago went with reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness Farmers remain slow sellers and end-user demand is called solid. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts. Palm Oil opened yesterday and traded with the world markets and the weak export data from the private sources.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.312 million tons in January, from 1.439 million in December. ITS said that exports were 1.289 million tons, from 1.422 million in December.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 492.00, 487.00, and 485.00 March, with resistance at 497.00, 500.00, and 502.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2440 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation on Wednesday and then this weekend, temperatures near to below normal after above normal tomorrow.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 45 March 220 March 60 March 34 March 1-Mar
February 47 March 60 March 32 March
March 46 March 60 March 32 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 58 March minus 12 March
April 50 May minus 16 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 1
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 478.70 dn 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.30 dn 2.40
2 Can 491.30 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.30 dn 2.40
2 Can 507.30 dn 2.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 229,638 lots, or 8.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,150 3,152 3,130 3,138 3,151 3,143 -8 1,306 11,706
May-18 3,527 3,527 3,463 3,472 3,535 3,489 -46 212,048 321,302
Jul-18 – – – 3,578 3,578 3,578 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,603 3,604 3,552 3,557 3,608 3,572 -36 15,504 34,994
Nov-18 – – – 3,651 3,656 3,651 -5 0 6
Jan-19 3,680 3,682 3,637 3,639 3,687 3,654 -33 746 2,910
Mar-19 – – – 3,680 3,680 3,680 0 0 4
May-19 3,766 3,766 3,749 3,757 3,787 3,756 -31 34 216
Jul-19 – – – 3,773 3,804 3,773 -31 0 4
Corn
Turnover: 641,138 lots, or 11.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,792 1,801 1,792 1,800 1,793 1,798 5 5,346 19,586
May-18 1,790 1,807 1,787 1,805 1,791 1,798 7 492,456 856,802
Jul-18 1,792 1,810 1,789 1,805 1,792 1,795 3 54,352 27,944
Sep-18 1,771 1,787 1,769 1,786 1,772 1,777 5 86,026 343,806
Nov-18 1,765 1,772 1,765 1,772 1,765 1,768 3 20 684
Jan-19 1,758 1,767 1,757 1,767 1,757 1,763 6 2,938 14,816
Soymeal
Turnover: 755,104 lots, or 21.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,835 2,857 2,830 2,837 2,846 2,835 -11 6,708 1,544
May-18 2,803 2,808 2,792 2,799 2,811 2,799 -12 569,754 1,926,680
Jul-18 2,803 2,806 2,795 2,799 2,815 2,801 -14 44,100 16,262
Aug-18 2,767 2,770 2,767 2,769 2,793 2,768 -25 6 152
Sep-18 2,780 2,785 2,766 2,775 2,791 2,774 -17 126,676 598,998
Nov-18 2,778 2,778 2,770 2,774 2,796 2,774 -22 24 414
Dec-18 2,790 2,790 2,790 2,790 2,775 2,790 15 2 16
Jan-19 2,780 2,780 2,763 2,771 2,787 2,768 -19 7,834 36,396
Palm Oil
Turnover: 364,882 lots, or 18.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Apr-18 5,096 5,144 5,096 5,144 5,194 5,120 -74 4 16
May-18 5,184 5,192 5,108 5,136 5,194 5,136 -58 339,602 569,176
Jun-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,276 5,334 5,276 -58 0 2
Sep-18 5,260 5,264 5,192 5,210 5,264 5,212 -52 25,122 108,680
Oct-18 – – – 5,252 5,304 5,252 -52 0 2
Nov-18 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,404 5,404 5,404 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,282 5,282 5,226 5,240 5,294 5,248 -46 154 1,934
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 333,808 lots, or 19.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 5,440 5,450 5,418 5,418 5,580 5,436 -144 18 62
May-18 5,752 5,752 5,682 5,696 5,742 5,708 -34 299,166 900,930
Jul-18 – – – 5,812 5,812 5,812 0 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,860 5,860 5,860 0 0 14
Sep-18 5,886 5,888 5,822 5,840 5,886 5,846 -40 34,328 185,788
Nov-18 – – – 5,904 5,944 5,904 -40 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,932 5,932 5,932 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,992 5,992 5,942 5,952 5,996 5,960 -36 296 4,262
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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