Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA U.S. Cattle Inventory: Totals/Calf Crop-Jan 31
Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop,
United States, January 1, 2017-2018
============================================================================
2018 as
Class 2017 2018 % of 2017
============================================================================
—– 1,000 Head —- Percent
Cattle and Calves 93,704.6 94,399.0 101
Cows and Heifers That Have Calved 40,559.2 41,122.6 101
Beef Cows 31,213.2 31,723.0 102
Milk Cows 9,346.0 9,399.6 101
Heifers 500 Pounds and Over 20,132.0 20,244.8 101
For Beef Cow Replacement 6,368.2 6,131.2 96
Expected to Calve 3,979.2 3,771.0 95
For Milk Cow Replacement 4,754.0 4,781.3 101
Expected to Calve 3,071.6 3,037.9 99
Other Heifers 9,009.8 9,332.3 104
Steers 500 Pounds and Over 16,383.5 16,352.2 100
Bulls 500 Pounds and Over 2,243.6 2,252.2 100
Calves Under 500 Pounds 14,386.3 14,427.2 100
Cattle on Feed 13,067.0 14,006.4 107
2017 as
2016 2017 % of 2016
—————————————–
Calf Crop 35,092.7 35,808.2 102
============================================================================
1/ Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year.
Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period,
United States, 2016-2017
============================================================================
2016 2017
——————————————————–
Period % of % of
Number Total Number Total
============================================================================
1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent
Jan 1 – Jun 30 25,550.0 72.8 26,000.0 72.6
Jul 1 – Dec 31 9,542.7 27.2 9,808.2 27.4
Total 35,092.7 100.0 35,808.2 100.0
============================================================================
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Feb 1
For the week ended Jan 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 289.1 0.0 20410.6 22887.7 5151.5 267.8
hrw 218.5 0.0 8281.2 9221.7 2032.5 52.4
srw 14.3 0.0 2065.6 1975.9 694.8 82.5
hrs 73.5 0.0 5334.3 7339.3 1420.1 45.6
white -47.2 0.0 4427.2 3948.5 916.1 35.9
durum 30.0 0.0 302.3 402.2 88.0 51.5
corn 1850.6 31.0 32251.9 40217.6 18441.0 1253.1
soybeans 359.0 50.7 43594.7 50387.7 10301.9 1026.3
soymeal 474.8 -7.1 7300.5 6678.4 3940.2 160.9
soyoil 58.8 0.0 420.9 662.6 167.5 1.4
upland cotton 303.3 30.7 11697.1 9740.2 7351.5 1573.2
pima cotton 9.5 1.3 506.6 451.0 281.7 38.0
sorghum 242.4 0.0 5178.6 3241.7 2798.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 37.8 16.8 15.3 35.1
rice 62.2 0.0 1796.6 2142.0 482.3 0.0

Alerts History
• 01-Feb-2018 07:08:14 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOY CROP SEEN AT 111.08 MLN TNS VS 110.09 MLN TNS SEEN IN JANUARY – INTL FCSTONE
• 01-Feb-2018 07:08:59 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 1ST CORN CROP SEEN AT 23.87 MLN TNS VS 23.44 MLN TNS SEEN IN JAN – INTL FCSTONE
• 01-Feb-2018 07:09:41 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 2ND CORN CROP SEEN AT 63.22 MLN TNS, UNCHANGED FROM JAN VIEW – INTL FCSTONE
• 01-Feb-2018 07:11:07 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 63.5 MLN TNS VS 68.15 MLN TNS REPORTED IN 2016/17 – INTL FCSTONE
• 01-Feb-2018 07:12:01 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 30 MLN TNS VS 30.5 MLN TNS REPORTED IN 2016/17 – INTL FCSTONE
Brazil’s soy crop revised up to 111.08 mln tns – INTL FCStone – Reuters News
01-Feb-2018 07:23:24 AM
SAO PAULO, Feb 1 (Reuters) –
• Brazil’s 2017/18 soy crop seen at 111.08 mln tns vs 110.09 mln tns seen in January – INTL FCStone
• Brazil’s 2017/18 1st corn crop seen at 23.87 mln tns vs 23.44 mln tns seen in January – INTL FCStone
• Brazil’s 2017/18 2nd corn crop seen at 63.22 mln tns, unchanged from January view – INTL FCStone
• Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean exports seen at 63.5 mln tns vs 68.15 mln tns reported in 2016/17 – INTL FCStone
• Brazil’s 2017/18 corn exports seen at 30 mln tns vs 30.5 mln tns reported in 2016/17 – INTL FCStone
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed lower on speculative selling. It was the end of the month and some speculators decided to sell to either take profits or to add to short positions. Hard Red Winter Wheat futures held better than the other markets as this class of Wheat is the most affected by the Great Plains drought and the much weaker crop ratings posted on Monday by the state departments of agriculture. The Dollar remains in a downtrend that has been underway for quite some time, but was stable to a little higher yesterday. Chicago markets are finding overall support from continued dry weather in the US Great Plains. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in mostly sideways trends. Russian prices have been somewhat firmer, but appear to be more stable now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 459, 463, and 486 March. Support is at 445, 443, and 426 March, with resistance at 459, 460, and 461 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 486 March. Support is at 458, 451, and 444 March, with resistance at 477, 484, and 504 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 605, 600, and 594 March, and resistance is at 614, 621, and 628 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in two-sided trading from speculators and commercials. Futures were lower early, but found buying support and pushed higher again. Commercials were probably the buyers on the early price break.. Ideas are that prices can continue to work higher over time. Most seem to think that down side moves in futures prices offer new chances to buy. The current supply situation remains tight and is supporting prices. Prices for next year are expected to be lower, and spreads are showing the nearby months are generally gaining much faster than deferred. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices. The old crops to new crop spreads show a big difference that reflects the relative fundamental ideas in the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1251, 1268, and 1274 March. Support is at 1230, 1227, and 1220 March, with resistance at 1251, 1253, and 1259 March.

DJ Global Rice Prices Hit Best Since Late 2014 — Market Talk
0928 GMT – Global rice prices have reached a 38-month high, driven largely by gains in the Asian market. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s rice index rose 2.5% in January, with prices in Thailand and Vietnam jumping 7% from December amid Indonesian purchases and to a lesser extent, sales to Malaysia. “Expectations that dwindling state inventories would encourage the” Philippines to import rise “added to the firm sentiment, as did a further appreciation of the Thai baht relative to the US dollar.” (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged and Oats were mostly higher on forecasts for the dry Argentine weather pattern to continue well into February. Futures traded a little lower for most of the day in response to some talk of rains in partes of Argentina, but the rains covered a very small area. Corn has been a follower to the other markets as there is a lot of Corn here. But, US Corn is very cheap, and offers from South America are really not available until the middle of the US Summer. Three sales have been announced so far this week. Oats closed firmer, with nearby March the only month to close lower. Corn trends are starting to finally turn up, and futures had their highest close sine early November. A weaker US Dollar is helping demand ideas and is causing buying. There is still too much farmer owned Corn and farmers are reported to be starting to sell the Corn as prices move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catalyst for any rally as speculators are very short the market. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 370 March. Support is at 357, 354, and 351 March, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 367 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 259, 257, and 254 March, and resistance is at 269, 273, and 275 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on reports of some rains in Argentina. The rains were confined to a small area, and now dry weather forecasts for Argentina and mixed forecasts for Brazil remain. No rain is expected in Argentina for at least the next week, although some forecasts call for some rains after that. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal as export demand has been disappointing lately. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the market. Crops in these areas are reported to be in OK condition, but not in great condition. Forecasts turn drier again into next month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brazil has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. Central and northern Brazil are now forecast to get excessive rains this week. The weekly charts imply that nearby Soybeans can move to between 1010 and 1020 now, but that Soybean Meal is already beyond some swing targets. Soybean Oil is still testing support on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1011 and 1018 March. Support is at 984, 980, and 977 March, and resistance is at 1002, 1007, and 1009 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 332.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 348.00, and 351.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3210 March, with resistance at 3340, 3350, and 3370 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower. Weaker prices in Chicago went with reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness Farmers remain slow sellers and end-user demand is called solid. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.312 million tons in January, from 1.439 million in December.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 492.00, 487.00, and 485.00 March, with resistance at 500.00, 502.00, and 503.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2440 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation on Wednesday and then this weekend, temperatures near to below normal after above normal tomorrow.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 45 March 220 March 60 March 34 March 1-Mar
February 47 March 60 March 32 March
March 46 March 60 March 32 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 58 March minus 12 March
April 50 May minus 16 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 31
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 480.30 up 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.70 dn 1.60
2 Can 403.70 dn 1.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 522.70 dn 1.60
2 Can 509.70 dn 1.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9048)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 229,638 lots, or 8.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,150 3,152 3,130 3,138 3,151 3,143 -8 1,306 11,706
May-18 3,527 3,527 3,463 3,472 3,535 3,489 -46 212,048 321,302
Jul-18 – – – 3,578 3,578 3,578 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,603 3,604 3,552 3,557 3,608 3,572 -36 15,504 34,994
Nov-18 – – – 3,651 3,656 3,651 -5 0 6
Jan-19 3,680 3,682 3,637 3,639 3,687 3,654 -33 746 2,910
Mar-19 – – – 3,680 3,680 3,680 0 0 4
May-19 3,766 3,766 3,749 3,757 3,787 3,756 -31 34 216
Jul-19 – – – 3,773 3,804 3,773 -31 0 4
Corn
Turnover: 641,138 lots, or 11.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,792 1,801 1,792 1,800 1,793 1,798 5 5,346 19,586
May-18 1,790 1,807 1,787 1,805 1,791 1,798 7 492,456 856,802
Jul-18 1,792 1,810 1,789 1,805 1,792 1,795 3 54,352 27,944
Sep-18 1,771 1,787 1,769 1,786 1,772 1,777 5 86,026 343,806
Nov-18 1,765 1,772 1,765 1,772 1,765 1,768 3 20 684
Jan-19 1,758 1,767 1,757 1,767 1,757 1,763 6 2,938 14,816
Soymeal
Turnover: 755,104 lots, or 21.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,835 2,857 2,830 2,837 2,846 2,835 -11 6,708 1,544
May-18 2,803 2,808 2,792 2,799 2,811 2,799 -12 569,754 1,926,680
Jul-18 2,803 2,806 2,795 2,799 2,815 2,801 -14 44,100 16,262
Aug-18 2,767 2,770 2,767 2,769 2,793 2,768 -25 6 152
Sep-18 2,780 2,785 2,766 2,775 2,791 2,774 -17 126,676 598,998
Nov-18 2,778 2,778 2,770 2,774 2,796 2,774 -22 24 414
Dec-18 2,790 2,790 2,790 2,790 2,775 2,790 15 2 16
Jan-19 2,780 2,780 2,763 2,771 2,787 2,768 -19 7,834 36,396
Palm Oil
Turnover: 364,882 lots, or 18.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Apr-18 5,096 5,144 5,096 5,144 5,194 5,120 -74 4 16
May-18 5,184 5,192 5,108 5,136 5,194 5,136 -58 339,602 569,176
Jun-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,276 5,334 5,276 -58 0 2
Sep-18 5,260 5,264 5,192 5,210 5,264 5,212 -52 25,122 108,680
Oct-18 – – – 5,252 5,304 5,252 -52 0 2
Nov-18 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,404 5,404 5,404 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,282 5,282 5,226 5,240 5,294 5,248 -46 154 1,934
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 333,808 lots, or 19.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 5,440 5,450 5,418 5,418 5,580 5,436 -144 18 62
May-18 5,752 5,752 5,682 5,696 5,742 5,708 -34 299,166 900,930
Jul-18 – – – 5,812 5,812 5,812 0 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,860 5,860 5,860 0 0 14
Sep-18 5,886 5,888 5,822 5,840 5,886 5,846 -40 34,328 185,788
Nov-18 – – – 5,904 5,944 5,904 -40 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,932 5,932 5,932 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,992 5,992 5,942 5,952 5,996 5,960 -36 296 4,262
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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