Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher again yesterday in response to the dry weather in the US Great Plains. Hard Red Winter Wheat futures led the charge higher as this class of Wheat is the most affected by the Great Plains drought and the much weaker crop ratings posted on Monday by the state departments of agriculture. It appeared to be a short covering rally made mostly by the funds, who have been very short, and they were reported to be big buyers. The Dollar remains in a down trend that has been underway for quite some time, but was stable yesterday. Chicago markets are finding overall support from continued dry weather in the US Great Plains. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in mostly sideways trends. Russian prices have been somewhat firmer, but appear to be more stable now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is possible on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible in southern areas on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 459, 463, and 486 March. Support is at 450, 445, and 443 March, with resistance at 460, 461, and 464 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 486 March. Support is at 458, 451, and 444 March, with resistance at 477, 484, and 504 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 608, 605, and 600 March, and resistance is at 621, 628, and 634 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed as some selling was seen in nearby months. Prices held to small gains in new crop months. It is still a short crop in the US, and ideas are that prices can continue to work higher over time. Most seem to think that down side moves in futures prices offer new chances to buy. The current supply situation remains tight and is supporting prices. Prices for next year are expected to be lower, and spreads are showing the nearby months are generally gaining much faster than deferred. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices. The old crops to new crop spreads show a big difference that reflects the relative fundamental ideas in the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1251, 1268, and 1274 March. Support is at 1230, 1227, and 1220 March, with resistance at 1248, 1253, and 1259 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 31
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.07 10.87 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.65 11.27 0.00
Brokens 10.30 —- —-

DJ Rice May Pose Risks for SE Asia Inflation Outlook — Market Talk
0535 GMT – Rice prices in Asia, measure by Thai benchmarks, have picked up after a year of declines. HSBC says that poses an inflation risk for the region given it’s the most-important food commodity. The gain “points to upside CPI risks in Indonesia and the Philippines.” But Indonesian officials have moved to boost imports and the Philippines “is considering dropping import restrictions in favor of tariffs, which would cut consumer prices,” the bank notes. It adds the outlook for this year’s rice harvest is positive, and from a longer-term perspective higher crop yields in regional importers should also help to prevent sharp price increases. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on forecasts for the dry Argentine weather pattern to continue well into February. Corn has been a follower to the other markets as there is a lot of Corn here. But, US Corn is very cheap, and offers from South America are really not available until the middle of the US Summer. Sales have been announced to Egypt and Spain so far this week. Oats closed firmer, with nearby months the strongest. Corn trends are starting to finally turn up, and futures had their highest close sine early November. A weaker US Dollar is helping demand ideas and is causing buying. There is still too much farmer owned Corn and farmers are reported to be starting to sell the Corn as prices move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catalyst for any rally as speculators are very short the market. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 145,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 370 March. Support is at 357, 354, and 351 March, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 367 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 266, 261, and 257 March, and resistance is at 275, 279, and 281 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on dry weather forecasts for Argentina and mixed forecasts for Brazil. No rain is expected in Argentina for at least the next week, and some longer term outlooks keep the country mostly dry well into February. Soybeans and Soybean Meal were the strongest markets. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal as export demand has been disappointing lately. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the market. Crops in these areas are reported to be in OK condition, but not in great condition. Forecasts turn drier again into next month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brazil has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. Central and northern Brazil are now forecast to get excessive rains this week. The weekly charts imply that nearby Soybeans can move to between 1010 and 1020 now, but that Soybean Meal is already beyond some swing targets. Soybean Oil is still testing support on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1011 and 1018 March. Support is at 995, 984, and 980 March, and resistance is at 1007, 1009, and 1027 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 332.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 354.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3210 March, with resistance at 3340, 3350, and 3370 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday. Stronger prices in Chicago went against reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness Some farm selling was note don the move higher in early trading. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 492.00, 487.00, and 485.00 March, with resistance at 500.00, 502.00, and 503.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2440 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation on Wednesday and then this weekend, temperatures near to below normal after above normal tomorrow.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 45 March 220 March 60 March 34 March 1-Mar
February 47 March 60 March 32 March
March 46 March 60 March 32 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 58 March minus 12 March
April 50 May minus 16 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 30
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 478.20 dn 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 508.30 up 2.10
2 Can 495.30 up 2.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 524.30 up 2.10
2 Can 511.30 up 2.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,858 lots, or 4.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,148 3,159 3,144 3,149 3,150 3,151 1 1,552 12,114
May-18 3,538 3,552 3,524 3,531 3,531 3,535 4 107,830 291,914
Jul-18 – – – 3,578 3,578 3,578 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,615 3,621 3,600 3,607 3,608 3,608 0 5,312 32,126
Nov-18 3,660 3,660 3,648 3,648 3,695 3,656 -39 6 6
Jan-19 3,691 3,699 3,683 3,683 3,687 3,687 0 144 2,512
Mar-19 – – – 3,680 3,680 3,680 0 0 4
May-19 3,792 3,792 3,785 3,786 3,785 3,787 2 6 188
Jul-19 3,804 3,804 3,804 3,804 3,799 3,804 5 8 4
Corn
Turnover: 343,118 lots, or 6.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,794 1,797 1,790 1,792 1,794 1,793 -1 15,030 21,836
May-18 1,791 1,797 1,785 1,788 1,793 1,791 -2 295,636 846,334
Jul-18 1,804 1,804 1,790 1,791 1,793 1,792 -1 3,484 6,192
Sep-18 1,774 1,776 1,768 1,770 1,774 1,772 -2 27,718 332,478
Nov-18 1,765 1,766 1,763 1,764 1,770 1,765 -5 106 688
Jan-19 1,757 1,759 1,756 1,756 1,760 1,757 -3 1,144 13,408
Soymeal
Turnover: 759,758 lots, or 21.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,838 2,850 2,831 2,847 2,822 2,846 24 2,362 6,516
May-18 2,808 2,822 2,799 2,815 2,800 2,811 11 618,720 1,903,506
Jul-18 2,807 2,820 2,806 2,819 2,799 2,815 16 11,394 8,474
Aug-18 2,791 2,801 2,788 2,788 2,784 2,793 9 24 156
Sep-18 2,794 2,800 2,780 2,790 2,783 2,791 8 120,462 584,254
Nov-18 2,791 2,800 2,789 2,799 2,783 2,796 13 134 408
Dec-18 – – – 2,775 2,775 2,775 0 0 16
Jan-19 2,783 2,794 2,778 2,785 2,780 2,787 7 6,662 38,492
Palm Oil
Turnover: 228,270 lots, or 11.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,194 5,194 5,194 0 0 16
May-18 5,198 5,208 5,180 5,192 5,214 5,194 -20 211,850 544,090
Jun-18 – – – 5,288 5,288 5,288 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,334 5,354 5,334 -20 0 2
Sep-18 5,266 5,276 5,252 5,264 5,284 5,264 -20 16,196 107,610
Oct-18 – – – 5,304 5,304 5,304 0 0 2
Nov-18 – – – 5,338 5,358 5,338 -20 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,404 5,424 5,404 -20 0 0
Jan-19 5,296 5,308 5,276 5,300 5,314 5,294 -20 224 1,872
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 257,702 lots, or 14.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,580 5,580 5,580 0 0 48
May-18 5,734 5,764 5,712 5,758 5,762 5,742 -20 233,698 889,970
Jul-18 – – – 5,812 5,812 5,812 0 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,860 5,860 5,860 0 0 14
Sep-18 5,872 5,904 5,852 5,894 5,898 5,886 -12 23,754 181,858
Nov-18 – – – 5,944 5,944 5,944 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,932 5,932 5,932 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,986 6,008 5,968 6,008 6,002 5,996 -6 250 4,218
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

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