Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 29
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 25, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/25/2018 01/18/2018 01/26/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 575 19,088 30,495
CORN 993,506 722,681 1,062,502 13,736,572 20,888,839
FLAXSEED 0 0 342 4,673 14,008
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 699 0 599 8,286 10,697
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 151,702 168,583 240,053 2,088,187 2,540,193
SOYBEANS 1,104,978 1,421,878 1,640,206 33,379,877 38,830,662
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 579,875 423,620 332,060 16,192,732 16,807,676
Total 2,830,760 2,736,762 3,276,337 65,429,415 79,122,570
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

TABLE-Wheat ratings decline in Kansas, Oklahoma in January USDA – Reuters News
29-Jan-2018 07:06:10 PM
CHICAGO, Jan 29 (Reuters) – Condition ratings for winter wheat declined in January in several southern U.S. Plains states that have been hit by drought, including top producer Kansas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday.
The government rated 14 percent of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 37 percent at the end of December and down from 51 percent in the week to Nov. 26.
USDA rated just 4 percent of the Oklahoma wheat crop as good to excellent, down from 15 percent at the end of December.
All of Kansas and Oklahoma are abnormally dry and 53 percent of Oklahoma is in a severe drought, according to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, which is prepared by a consortium of climatologists.
Monthly wheat ratings also declined in Colorado and Nebraska, but improved in Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota. Like Kansas and Oklahoma, farmers in these states grow hard red winter wheat, the largest U.S. wheat class, which is milled into flour for bread.
Crop ratings declined in Illinois, which produces soft red winter wheat, used to make cookies and snack foods. The USDA rated 38 percent of the Illinois wheat crop as good to excellent, down from 56 percent a month ago.
The USDA issued its last national winter wheat ratings of the season on Nov. 27, pegging 50 percent of the U.S. crop as good to excellent. The government will resume weekly U.S. crop progress reports in April. Over the winter, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service releases monthly reports for select states.

Combined
Very Good/
Poor Fair Good Excellent
Colorado January 3 25 35 36 1 37
December 6 15 31 43 5 48
Nov. 26 2 5 27 52 14 66
Year-ago 5 16 43 33 3 36
Illinois January 7 11 44 35 3 38
December 5 10 29 48 8 56
Nov. 26 5 6 27 47 15 62
Year-ago 0 2 24 59 15 74
Kansas January 10 34 42 13 1 14
December 4 18 41 34 3 37
Nov. 26 4 10 35 47 4 51
Year-ago 7 13 36 42 2 44
Montana January 0 3 31 58 8 66
December 3 10 47 31 9 40
Nov. 26 3 12 52 27 6 33
Year-ago 1 3 26 53 17 70
Nebraska January 1 7 44 40 8 48
December 2 5 29 58 6 64
Nov. 26 2 8 31 52 7 59
Year-ago 1 8 44 43 4 47
North Dakota January 3 12 48 34 3 37
December 15 23 35 27 0 27
Nov. 26 17 17 38 28 0 28
Year-ago 4 2 12 77 5 82
Oklahoma January 38 41 17 4 0 4
December 5 37 43 15 0 15
Nov. 26 2 8 60 28 2 30
Year-ago 3 14 50 30 3 33
South Dakota January 9 12 55 24 0 24
December 15 21 44 19 1 20
Nov. 26 25 13 44 17 1 18
Year-ago 0 1 37 61 1 62

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
(( Julie.ingwersen@thomsonreuters.com ; 1-312-408-8710; Reuters Messaging: julie.ingwersen.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher again yesterday in response to the dry weather in the US Great Plains. It appeared to be a short covering rally made mostly by the funds who have been very short. The Dollar remains in a downtrend that has been underway for quite some time, but started a short-term recovery yesterday. Chicago markets are finding overall support from continued dry weather in the US Great Plains. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets are now in up trends and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in mostly sideways trends. Russian prices have been somewhat firmer, but US prices are also stronger and export demand for US Wheat has remained bad even with the US Dollar weakness. Prices in Europe have also been weaker as traders their search for demand. Futures in Winter Wheat are at low prices and trends are turning up on the weekly charts. Minneapolis prices are also holding just above important support areas on the weekly charts and are in sideways trends.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 453, 459, and 463 March. Support is at 436, 427, and 425 March, with resistance at 460, 461, and 464 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 460, 464, and 486 March. Support is at 444, 437, and 432 March, with resistance at 456, 458, and 462 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 608, 605, and 600 March, and resistance is at 621, 628, and 634 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday and trends are up on the charts. There was some producer and speculator selling note don the rally, but the market held and it could go higher over the course of the week. It is still a short crop in the US, and ideas are that prices can continue to work higher over time. Most seem to think that down side moves in futures prices offer new chances to buy. The current supply situation remains tight and is supporting prices. Prices for next year are expected to be lower, and spreads are showing the nearby months gaining much faster than deferred. Planted area is expected to increase in the coming year as the tight domestic supply situation has created rather favorable nearby prices. The old crops to new crop spreads show a big difference that reflects the relative fundamental ideas in the market. The daily and weekly charts still suggest that higher prices are coming in nearby contracts as the market works through a tight supply situation.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain Thursday and then over the weekend. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1251, 1268, and 1274 March. Support is at 1230, 1227, and 1220 March, with resistance at 1253, 1259, and 1266 March.

China to cut 2018 rice acreage by 2.2 pct amid bulging stocks – Reuters News
30-Jan-2018 05:07:22 AM
BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) – China will curb planting of rice, its most important food grain, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, in a major step towards reducing a growing mountain of unsold stocks.
The world’s second-largest rice grower will aim to slash the acreage planted by over 10 million mu or about 670,000 hectares, it said, around 2.2 percent of its plantings for 2017.
It is the first time China has sought to curb planting acreage of its most important food, underlining its worry over stock levels.
“It is a major policy shift. It will be the first time the state aimed to cut rice acreage. The government policy has always been increasing and stabilizing rice production,” said Chen Xiaoshan, an analyst with commodities consultancy Zhuochuang based in Shandong.
The reduction will be focused on the north-east where cold weather limits japonica rice yields, and on production of indica rice in the Yangtze river basin.
“According to changes in market demand, we will appropriately reduce the rice area,” said the document published on the agriculture ministry’s website.
The plan follows steps that were taken to curb production of corn, after state purchasing policies encouraged farmers to increase planting even as demand showed little change. That led to huge stockpiles of ageing corn, which Beijing has been forced to sell off at bargain prices. (Full Story) (Full Story)
Rice stocks are around 200 million tonnes, similar to the volumes corn stocks had grown to when the government took action, but getting rid of the rice could be more challenging, since much less processing capacity is installed in the major rice-growing provinces of the south, said analysts.
“China has huge rice stocks. But unlike corn, there is not a series of processing industries for rice. Rice destocking can mostly rely only on eating,” said Cherry Zhang, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence.
China has also stepped up exports of rice in a bid to reduce the surplus. (Full Story)
The ministry document also called for a continued focus on reducing corn planting in non-significant production areas.
Wheat planting will also be reduced in regions contaminated by fertilizers as well as in places facing depleted groundwater in North China and Xinjiang.
(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; Editing by Tom Hogue)
(( dominique.patton@thomsonreuters.com ; +86 10 6627 1027; Reuters Messaging: dominique.patton.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher. Corn has been a follower to the other markets as there is a lot of Corn here. But, Egypt bought US Corn as an indication of just how cheap US Corn is, and offers from South America are really not available until the middle of the US Summer. Oats closed firmer, with nearby months the strongest. Corn trends are starting to finally turn up. A weaker US Dollar is helping demand ideas and is causing buying. There is still too much farmer owned Corn and farmers are reported to be starting to sell the Corn as prices move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catalyst for any rally as speculators are very short the market. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong. Demand in the US has been very strong from the ethanol sector and is expected to increase seasonally soon. Brazil is looking at removing tariffs on ethanol imports, and this could mean much more export business for the US. Ethanol prices are very high in Brazil at this time. The trade is still looking at the dry weather in Argentina. Argentine forecasts are still mostly dry, so production loss estimates will be heard soon.
Overnight News: Spain bought 132,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 359 March. Support is at 354, 352, and 350 March, and resistance is at 360, 361, and 32 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 266, 261, and 257 March, and resistance is at 270, 275, and 279 March.

DJ Drought Dampens South Africa’s 2018 Corn Plantings — Market Talk
1544 GMT – South African corn farmers have slashed plantings for the 2018 season as Africa’s top producer of the grain grapples with drought, says the government’s Crop Estimates Committee. Plantings will likely drop 12% to 2.3 million hectares as the dry spell pressures growers in the main producing region in the country’s west. Plantings for white corn–a regional staple–are down 22% while acreage for yellow corn–used mainly in animal feeds–is 4% higher on year. It’s a reversal of fortunes for a country that posted record crop of 16.7 million tons last year, more than double the 7.8 million tons produced in 2016 after rains aided a recovery from the 2015-2016 drought fueled by El Nino. (Nicholas.Bariyo@wsj.com;@Nicholasbariyo)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on dry weather forecasts for Argentina and mixed forecasts for Brazil. Soybeans and Soybean Meal were the strongest markets and appeared to rally mostly on the Argentine drought. US Soybeans prices have been stronger lately and talk of quality concerns in US Soybeans remains. US and world crusher are having trouble extracting enough protein from the Soybeans while processing for Soybean Meal, with the meal often showing about 46% protein instead of the required level near 48%. Stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the market. Crops in these areas are reported to be in OK condition, but not in great condition. Forecasts turn drier again into next month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brazil has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. Central and northern Brazil are now forecast to get excessive rains this week. The weekly charts imply that nearby Soybeans can move to between 1010 and 1020 now, but that Soybean Meal is already beyond some swing targets. Soybean Oil is still testing support on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1011 and 1018 March. Support is at 984, 980, and 977 March, and resistance is at 999, 1002, and 1007 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 332.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 341.00, 348.00, and 351.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3210 March, with resistance at 3300, 3340, and 3350 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Stronger prices in Chicago went against reports of bigger supplies in Canada and the potential for increased planted area in Canada for the coming year all contributed to the weakness The market is watching Brazil and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts and cash markets inside Canada are reported mostly quiet. Increased selling is possible now as the weather is warmer. Export demand is said to be quiet, but improving. Palm Oil was higher on demand hopes. Export demand has been weaker than expected. Ideas are that production is in a seasonal decline. Demand has been bad so far this month. Support has come from the elimination of export taxes in Malaysia. The market has been strong recently due to good export demand, so the elimination of taxes should mean higher prices paid internally to producers and processors.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 492.00, 487.00, and 485.00 January, with resistance at 498.00, 500.00, and 502.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2440 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation on Wednesday and then this weekend, temperatures near to below normal after above normal tomorrow.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 45 March 220 March 60 March 35 March 1-Mar
February 47 March 57 March 34 March
March 46 March 57 March 33 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
February
March 63 March minus 13 March
April 51 May minus 16 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 29
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 475.70 dn 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.20 dn 2.50
2 Can 493.20 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 522.20 dn 2.50
2 Can 509.20 dn 2.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 665.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 665.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 627.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,500.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 293.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.8975)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,594 lots, or 3.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,155 3,164 3,143 3,143 3,154 3,150 -4 578 12,502
May-18 3,532 3,542 3,518 3,536 3,532 3,531 -1 103,162 291,674
Jul-18 – – – 3,578 3,578 3,578 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,613 3,617 3,597 3,612 3,613 3,608 -5 7,498 31,716
Nov-18 – – – 3,695 3,700 3,695 -5 0 8
Jan-19 3,695 3,698 3,680 3,693 3,697 3,687 -10 312 2,526
Mar-19 – – – 3,680 3,680 3,680 0 0 4
May-19 3,786 3,791 3,780 3,786 3,783 3,785 2 44 186
Jul-19 – – – 3,799 3,799 3,799 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 239,218 lots, or 4.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,795 1,799 1,793 1,793 1,800 1,794 -6 19,704 24,004
May-18 1,793 1,799 1,790 1,792 1,795 1,793 -2 191,622 859,114
Jul-18 1,797 1,798 1,790 1,793 1,796 1,793 -3 3,086 4,114
Sep-18 1,775 1,779 1,772 1,775 1,774 1,774 0 22,088 331,166
Nov-18 1,775 1,775 1,768 1,768 1,774 1,770 -4 154 764
Jan-19 1,763 1,766 1,756 1,757 1,764 1,760 -4 2,564 12,980
Soymeal
Turnover: 851,740 lots, or 23.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,831 2,842 2,815 2,837 2,791 2,822 31 20,038 6,814
May-18 2,807 2,812 2,792 2,804 2,789 2,800 11 685,532 1,944,584
Jul-18 2,806 2,807 2,796 2,803 2,807 2,799 -8 2,394 2,634
Aug-18 2,782 2,789 2,779 2,786 2,783 2,784 1 64 156
Sep-18 2,790 2,795 2,775 2,788 2,777 2,783 6 139,394 573,886
Nov-18 2,789 2,789 2,772 2,782 2,788 2,783 -5 34 516
Dec-18 – – – 2,775 2,775 2,775 0 0 16
Jan-19 2,788 2,791 2,771 2,781 2,777 2,780 3 4,284 39,548
Palm Oil
Turnover: 367,960 lots, or 19.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,194 5,194 5,194 0 0 16
May-18 5,260 5,260 5,174 5,190 5,238 5,214 -24 335,858 561,626
Jun-18 5,312 5,312 5,266 5,266 5,270 5,288 18 4 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,354 5,336 5,354 18 0 2
Sep-18 5,336 5,336 5,246 5,256 5,314 5,284 -30 31,818 107,362
Oct-18 – – – 5,304 5,304 5,304 0 0 2
Nov-18 – – – 5,358 5,358 5,358 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,424 5,454 5,424 -30 0 0
Jan-19 5,352 5,352 5,278 5,286 5,350 5,314 -36 280 1,826
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 420,676 lots, or 24.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,580 5,580 5,580 0 0 48
May-18 5,820 5,822 5,716 5,728 5,812 5,762 -50 365,214 914,082
Jul-18 – – – 5,812 5,812 5,812 0 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,860 5,874 5,860 -14 0 14
Sep-18 5,960 5,964 5,852 5,866 5,952 5,898 -54 54,986 180,252
Nov-18 – – – 5,944 5,998 5,944 -54 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,932 5,986 5,932 -54 0 0
Jan-19 6,040 6,042 5,970 5,980 6,058 6,002 -56 476 4,140
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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