About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 19
For the week ended Jan 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 153.1 37.5 19694.4 21583.1 5327.2 241.3
hrw 77.2 1.5 7865.0 8735.3 1990.4 52.4
srw -0.1 4.0 2018.3 1901.2 696.3 81.0
hrs 55.0 7.0 5201.6 6970.4 1500.0 45.6
white 20.4 0.0 4337.1 3573.9 1082.4 35.9
durum 0.7 25.0 272.3 402.3 58.0 26.5
corn 1888.3 2.4 28996.6 37703.6 16789.6 1137.1
soybeans 1240.2 287.7 42694.1 49301.1 11789.9 832.5
soymeal 281.8 0.0 6602.5 6036.6 3699.6 167.0
soyoil 27.9 0.0 350.5 600.9 141.6 1.4
upland cotton 275.1 104.6 11326.1 8957.6 7518.1 1434.7
pima cotton 11.1 0.0 492.0 437.8 296.7 35.4
sorghum 188.8 0.0 4770.2 3106.4 2854.7 0.0
barley 1.4 0.0 37.8 16.6 16.6 7.1
rice 40.7 0.0 1701.8 2035.3 503.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher on continued dry weather in the US. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. Less concern was heard about Midwest. The Midwest has been colder again, although no extreme cold was seen and Winter Wheat areas got some snow. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends. Futures in Winter Wheat are at low prices and are back testing important support areas now. Minneapolis prices are also holding just above important support areas on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average much below normal early in the week and near normal later in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 409 March. Support is at 413, 411, and 409 March, with resistance at 425, 432, and 436 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 412 March. Support is at 421, 418, and 416 March, with resistance at 431, 437, and 443 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 611, 608, and 605 March, and resistance is at 617, 621, and 628 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed again yesterday. Volumes traded were down when compared to the previous few sessions as the cash market remains quiet. USDA cut production estimates and also current supplies in the data on Friday. Market focus is back opn the current supply situation in response to the USDA reports, but producers are also looking at the coming season and trying to decide how much Rice to plant and what price level to start selling. There is a lot of talk that acreage can be increased significantly this year due to the current strong prices. That means that producers should start looking for ways to sell some of the next crop on any strong rallies from here as a way to get started.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain today and late this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal early in the week and above normal by this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1229 and 1251 March. Support is at 1210, 1204, and 1197 March, with resistance at 1224, 1237, and 1242 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterday, with funds selling some Corn again as they maintain huge short positions. The market is still in a sideways trend. The lack of follow through srelling in response to the USDA reports last week implies that futures are sold out and could finally move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catelyst for any rally. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong. Demand in the US has been very strong from the ethanol sector and USDA will still likely need to increase Corn consumption from this área in the supply and demand updates that will be released next month. Brazil is looking at removing tariffs on etanol imports, and this could mean much more export business for the US and a lot more Sugar for the world market. Questions continue about Corn demand from the feed sector, but the animals are out there to feed. The trade is still looking at the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Both regions are OK for now, and southern Brazil appers in good condition. Forecasts for this week are hot and dry again, with the biggest problems in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 347, and 346 March, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 255, 260, and 264 March. Support is at 252, 249, and 247 March, and resistance is at 257, 260, and 265 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher, but Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybean Oil demand is in a seasonal lull, but is expected to increase soon, so a bottom in this market might be close at hand. Spreads against Soybean Oil have brought buying into Soybean Meal, while the stronger domestic demand has shelped support Soybeans. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the matket. However, there have been rains in some of the drier áreas in recent days. Crops in these áreas are reported to be in OK condition, but not in great condition. Forecasts turn drier again into next month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brail has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. US Soybeans prices still apper to be relatively cheap in world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 961, 957, and 955 March, and resistance is at 977, 979, and 989 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 331.00 March. Support is at 318.00, 316.00, and 312.00 March, and resistance is at 329.00, 331.00, and 334.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3240 March. Support is at 3220, 3180, and 3150 March, with resistance at 3270, 3300, and 3340 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Speculators were good buyers The market is watching Brazil and as vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts and cash markets inside Canada are reported mostly quiet. Increased selling is posible now as the weather is turning a bit warmer. Export demand is said to be quiet due to the strength in the Canadian Dollar. Palm Oil was lower on demand concerns. The EU passed a measure this week promoting the use of bio fuels for 35% of fuel needs by 2030, but specifically left Palm Oil out of the list of permitted feedstock. Suppport has come from the elimination of export taxes in Malaysia at the beginning of this week. The market has been strong recently due to good export demand, so the elimination of taxes should mean higher prices paid internally to producers and processors.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 485.00 March. Support is at 487.00, 485.00, and 484.00 January, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 500.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Cold today, then trending much warmer with some chances for precipitation over the weekend and early next week,

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 44 March 230 March 55 March 38 March 1-Mar
February 44 March 55 March 35 March
March 44 March 62 March 34 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
January 76 March minus 11 March
February 76 March minus 11 March
March 66 March minus 19 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 18
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.70 up 0.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 502.60 up 2.90
2 Can 489.60 up 2.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.60 up 2.90
2 Can 505.60 up 2.90
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source:Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 642.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 642.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 647.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 647.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 650.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 650.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 657.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 617.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,450.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 295.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9350)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 265,072 lots, or 9.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,132 3,150 3,130 3,138 3,129 3,137 8 1,298 13,880
May-18 3,600 3,600 3,522 3,536 3,599 3,555 -44 251,310 285,926
Jul-18 – – – 3,638 3,638 3,638 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,660 3,660 3,598 3,605 3,659 3,623 -36 11,902 30,300
Nov-18 – – – 3,702 3,738 3,702 -36 0 4
Jan-19 3,722 3,722 3,676 3,688 3,732 3,694 -38 516 2,124
Mar-19 3,688 3,688 3,688 3,688 3,732 3,688 -44 2 4
May-19 3,801 3,801 3,758 3,769 3,814 3,782 -32 44 102
Jul-19 – – – 3,848 3,848 3,848 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 440,596 lots, or 7.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,819 1,819 1,805 1,805 1,819 1,814 -5 18,914 26,802
May-18 1,812 1,812 1,799 1,801 1,810 1,803 -7 380,970 1,006,560
Jul-18 1,812 1,812 1,803 1,808 1,810 1,808 -2 106 1,140
Sep-18 1,790 1,793 1,782 1,784 1,791 1,786 -5 38,814 310,788
Nov-18 1,788 1,790 1,781 1,784 1,789 1,787 -2 20 776
Jan-19 1,779 1,780 1,769 1,769 1,780 1,773 -7 1,772 5,572
Soymeal
Turnover: 680,076 lots, or 18.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,785 2,807 2,785 2,802 2,797 2,797 0 21,074 11,362
May-18 2,767 2,783 2,762 2,780 2,769 2,774 5 566,124 1,953,974
Jul-18 2,775 2,785 2,772 2,783 2,774 2,777 3 48 878
Aug-18 – – – 2,753 2,751 2,753 2 0 138
Sep-18 2,747 2,765 2,745 2,760 2,751 2,758 7 80,172 496,496
Nov-18 – – – 2,763 2,763 2,763 0 0 582
Dec-18 – – – 2,740 2,740 2,740 0 0 18
Jan-19 2,745 2,764 2,744 2,759 2,750 2,760 10 12,658 27,472
Palm Oil
Turnover: 402,424 lots, or 20.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,158 5,162 5,158 -4 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,194 5,194 5,194 0 0 16
May-18 5,194 5,200 5,146 5,150 5,190 5,174 -16 367,196 526,352
Jun-18 – – – 5,270 5,270 5,270 0 0 10
Jul-18 5,254 5,254 5,214 5,214 5,308 5,234 -74 4 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,272 5,346 5,272 -74 0 2
Sep-18 5,224 5,228 5,176 5,180 5,220 5,204 -16 34,890 93,592
Oct-18 5,262 5,262 5,174 5,174 5,262 5,218 -44 4 2
Nov-18 – – – 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,374 5,418 5,374 -44 0 0
Jan-19 5,252 5,252 5,208 5,220 5,260 5,228 -32 330 938
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 319,358 lots, or 18.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 – – – 5,526 5,526 5,526 0 0 52
May-18 5,718 5,722 5,666 5,678 5,706 5,696 -10 276,368 919,542
Jul-18 – – – 5,812 5,822 5,812 -10 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,814 5,848 5,814 -34 0 8
Sep-18 5,852 5,860 5,802 5,816 5,846 5,834 -12 42,672 153,970
Nov-18 – – – 5,956 5,968 5,956 -12 0 24
Dec-18 – – – 5,948 5,960 5,948 -12 0 0
Jan-19 5,954 5,968 5,928 5,934 5,968 5,940 -28 318 2,004
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Thanks,

Jack

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322