Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – Jan 17
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed Jan 17, 2018 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING DECEMBER 2017
————————————————————————
Dec-17 Nov-17 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,395
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 16,268
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 2,496
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 1,297
WHEAT DU 1 100 0 200
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 0 0 300 6,488
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 6,489
WHEAT SRW 0 0 200 2,197
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 40 3,992 0 69,058
CORN YELLOW 5,223 521,200 730,464 7,795,693
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100
OATS 22 2,196 1,098 14,076
SORGHUM 0 0 0 160,964
SOYBEANS 1,275 127,232 135,117 1,858,903
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 12,574
WHEAT HRS 25 2,495 1,497 84,225
WHEAT HRW 1,282 127,935 60,972 1,355,518
WHEAT SRW 126 12,574 1,297 141,510
WHEAT SWH 0 0 2,496 25,948
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher as Egypt paid higher prices for Russian Wheat and on continued dry weather in the US. Egypt has been paying higher prices for Wheat as the Ruble has moved higher and as the weather has turned colder to hinder some transport options. The weaker US Dollar is helping the US competitive position against other sellers including East Europe and Russia and also Canada and Australia. There are no forecasts for significant precipitation in the Great Plains for now, and drought is seen in about all areas. Less concern was heard about Midwest. The Midwest has been colder again, although no extreme cold was seen and Winter Wheat areas got some snow. The weekly charts show that both Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat markets remain in sideways trends. Futures in Winter Wheat are at low prices and are back testing important support areas now. Minneapolis prices are also holding just above important support areas on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average much below normal early in the week and near normal later in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 409 March. Support is at 413, 411, and 409 March, with resistance at 425, 432, and 436 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 412 March. Support is at 421, 418, and 416 March, with resistance at 431, 437, and 443 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 611, 608, and 605 March, and resistance is at 617, 621, and 628 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed after trading mostly higher on follow through buying tied to the USDA reports, and especially the current stocks in all positions reports that showed much less Long Grain Rice in storage than anyone had anticipated. Volumes traded were down when compared to the previous few sessions as the cash market remains quiet. USDA cut production estimates and also current supplies in the data on Friday. Market focus is back on the current supply situation in response to the USDA reports, but producers are also looking at the coming season and trying to decide how much Rice to plant and what price level to start selling. There is a lot of talk that acreage can be increased significantly this year due to the current strong prices. That means that producers should start looking for ways to sell some of the next crop on any strong rallies from here as a way to get started.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rain today and late this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal early in the week and above normal by this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1229 and 1251 March. Support is at 1212, 1204, and 1197 March, with resistance at 1220, 1237, and 1242 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with fund and other speculator buying noted in Corn. The market is still in a sideways to down trend, but bearish traders have not been able to push prices to new lows. The lacks of follow through selling implies that futures are sold out and could finally move higher. It is expected that the speculator short covering will be a primary catalyst for any rally. Overall demand for Corn remains good, and demand for other feed grains such as Sorghum and Oats is strong. Demand in the US has been very strong from the ethanol sector and USDA will still likely need to increase Corn consumption from this sector again this month in the supply and demand updates that will be released next month. Brazil is looking at removing tariffs on ethanol imports, and this could mean much more export business for the US and a lot more Sugar for the world market. Questions continue about Corn demand from the feed sector, but the animals are out there to feed. The trade is still looking at the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Both regions are OK for now, and southern Brazil appears in good condition. Forecasts for this week are hot and dry again, with the biggest problems in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 347, and 346 March, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 255, 260, and 264 March. Support is at 252, 249, and 247 March, and resistance is at 257, 260, and 265 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher, but Soybean Oil closed lower. The NOPA crush released on Tuesday showed a very high crush rate and higher than expected Soybean Oil inventories, and this news has affected the market for the last couple of days. Spreads against Soybean Oil have brought buying into Soybean Meal, while the stronger domestic demand has helped support Soybeans. Ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather are still the main features of the market. However, there have been rains in some of the drier areas in recent days. Crops in these areas are reported to be in OK condition, but not in great condition. Forecasts turn drier again into next month, with Argentina likely to be the most hurt by any return to hot and dry conditions. Northeast Brazil has also been dry and is missing out on the current rains. US Soybeans prices still appear to be relatively cheap in world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 961, 957, and 955 March, and resistance is at 970, 977, and 979 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 325.00 and 331.00 March. Support is at 318.00, 316.00, and 312.00 March, and resistance is at 326.00, 329.00, and 331.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3240 March. Support is at 3220, 3180, and 3150 March, with resistance at 3270, 3300, and 3340 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little higher despite weakness in Malaysia and Chicago vegetable oils prices. Speculators were early buyers and late sellers The market is watching Brazil and as vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in small to moderate amounts and cash markets inside Canada are reported mostly quiet. Increased selling is possible now as the weather is turning a bit warmer. Export demand is said to be quiet due to the strength in the Canadian Dollar. Palm Oil was lower as the EU passed a measure promoting the use of bio fuels for 35% of fuel needs by 2030, but specifically left Palm oil out of the list of permitted feedstock. Support has come from the elimination of export taxes in Malaysia at the beginning of this week. The market has been strong recently due to good export demand, so the elimination of taxes should mean higher prices paid internally to producers and processors.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 485.00 March. Support is at 487.00, 485.00, and 484.00 January, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 500.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 April, with resistance at 2530, 2560, and 2580 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Cold today, then trending much warmer with some chances for precipitation over the weekend and early next week,

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 48 March 230 March 55 March 41 March 1-Mar
February 48 March 55 March 34 March
March 45 March 55 March 34 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
January 78 March minus 12 March
February 71 March minus 11 March
March 66 March minus 18 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 17
ICE Canada Cash Close
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.30 dn 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 499.70 up 0.40
2 Can 486.70 up 0.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 515.70 up 0.40
2 Can 502.70 up 0.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 650.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 650.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 655.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 652.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 652.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 657.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 647.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 660.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 620.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,500.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 295.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9540)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 86,340 lots, or 3.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 3,153 3,157 3,103 3,135 3,165 3,129 -36 2,892 14,300
May-18 3,599 3,609 3,581 3,605 3,607 3,599 -8 80,228 257,588
Jul-18 – – – 3,638 3,638 3,638 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,660 3,667 3,643 3,661 3,665 3,659 -6 2,994 28,578
Nov-18 – – – 3,738 3,738 3,738 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,733 3,739 3,721 3,737 3,739 3,732 -7 90 1,738
Mar-19 3,732 3,733 3,732 3,733 3,827 3,732 -95 6 4
May-19 3,819 3,819 3,812 3,816 3,829 3,814 -15 130 92
Jul-19 – – – 3,848 3,848 3,848 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 528,986 lots, or 9.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 1,823 1,823 1,817 1,818 1,828 1,819 -9 22,818 22,854
May-18 1,818 1,819 1,803 1,809 1,818 1,810 -8 440,266 1,028,266
Jul-18 1,812 1,822 1,804 1,811 1,816 1,810 -6 202 1,120
Sep-18 1,795 1,797 1,788 1,789 1,795 1,791 -4 64,890 309,712
Nov-18 1,790 1,792 1,787 1,787 1,791 1,789 -2 40 782
Jan-19 1,784 1,784 1,779 1,781 1,785 1,780 -5 770 4,812
Soymeal
Turnover: 669,146 lots, or 18.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 2,794 2,802 2,790 2,800 2,799 2,797 -2 12,620 6,906
May-18 2,769 2,779 2,758 2,767 2,763 2,769 6 582,262 1,943,568
Jul-18 2,780 2,780 2,772 2,775 2,772 2,774 2 232 862
Aug-18 – – – 2,751 2,751 2,751 0 0 138
Sep-18 2,751 2,760 2,741 2,750 2,747 2,751 4 71,858 488,620
Nov-18 2,766 2,766 2,760 2,763 2,761 2,763 2 6 582
Dec-18 – – – 2,740 2,738 2,740 2 0 18
Jan-19 2,750 2,757 2,742 2,748 2,746 2,750 4 2,168 18,736
Palm Oil
Turnover: 323,276 lots, or 16.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,194 5,194 5,194 0 0 16
May-18 5,180 5,218 5,170 5,216 5,206 5,190 -16 293,370 525,784
Jun-18 – – – 5,270 5,270 5,270 0 0 10
Jul-18 5,308 5,310 5,308 5,310 5,266 5,308 42 4 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,346 5,304 5,346 42 0 2
Sep-18 5,224 5,244 5,206 5,240 5,236 5,220 -16 29,472 89,966
Oct-18 – – – 5,262 5,262 5,262 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,418 5,434 5,418 -16 0 0
Jan-19 5,242 5,278 5,242 5,268 5,262 5,260 -2 430 722
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 263,050 lots, or 15.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-18 5,526 5,526 5,526 5,526 5,530 5,526 -4 2 52
May-18 5,700 5,726 5,684 5,722 5,724 5,706 -18 234,116 904,182
Jul-18 – – – 5,822 5,822 5,822 0 0 12
Aug-18 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 8
Sep-18 5,846 5,866 5,824 5,858 5,862 5,846 -16 27,904 144,452
Nov-18 – – – 5,968 5,968 5,968 0 0 24
Dec-18 – – – 5,960 5,960 5,960 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,998 5,998 5,944 5,978 5,972 5,968 -4 1,028 1,952
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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