About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher after holding support areas on the charts. The market is expecting USDA to show bullish US and world data and knows that buyers in the cash market still have to buy a lot of futures contracts to fix prices for the on call Cotton. Trends are turning up in front of the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow. Price Group expects few changes to US production estimates as the Cotton production appears to have held well. USDA can show increased export demand and slightly smaller ending stocks, although overall supplies should still be big. However, the hurricanes and the freeze appear to have really damaged quality and the quality losses have forced mills and exporters to pay up for better quality Cotton. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Prices can remain generally strong even if a short-term top has been found. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month as the unfixed amount of Cotton is large. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get chances for precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday, than below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal through the weekend, then will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 77.11 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,942 bales, from 47,942 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 274,500 bales this year and 92,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 6,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8000 March. Support is at 7870, 7780, and 7720 March, with resistance of 8000, 8020, and 8080 March.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jan 9 2018 12:15:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Jan. 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
================================================================
|——-Survey Results——–|USDA
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Dec. | 2016-17
================================================================
US Production | 21.36| 20.80| 21.60| 21.44| 17.17
US Exports | 15.11| 14.50| 15.75| 14.80| 14.92
US End Stocks | 5.51| 4.91| 6.06| 5.80| 2.75
World | | | | |
Production | 118.90| 116.00| 120.20| 119.96| 106.56
World | | | | |
Consumption | 119.51| 118.60| 120.00| 119.59| 114.77
World End | | | | |
Stocks | 87.29| 86.00| 88.50| 88.00| 87.65
================================================================================
Analyst |————U.S.————|——World—-
| | | End | | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
================================================================================
Cottonexperts.com | 21.60| 15.60| 5.00| 116.00| 120.00| 86.00
Doane | 21.50| 15.70| 5.00| 118.50| 120.00| 86.00
Love Consulting | 21.51| 15.00| 5.92| 120.20| 119.75| 88.20
Price Futures Group| 20.80| 15.00| 5.50| n/a | n/a | n/a
Rabobank | 21.10| 14.50| 5.80| 119.00| 119.50| 87.10
Rose Consulting | 21.56| 14.80| 6.06| 119.88| 119.50| 88.05
Varner Bros. | 21.50| 15.75| 4.91| 119.20| 118.60| 87.20
Wedbush Securities | 21.30| 14.50| 5.90| 119.50| 119.25| 88.50
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Kristy Scheuble
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly a little higher and remains in a trading range as the market prepares for the next round of USDA production reports. Trade expectations for the report are hard to find. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and there is little rain around, but the crop is small anyway, and the charts still show that a potential short-term bottom has formed. USDA could curt its production estimates a little bit again tomorrow. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no 2 January deliveries have been posted and that total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 131.00 March, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 145.00 March.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jan 9 2018 12:20:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of three analysts about the 2017-18
Florida orange crop. The USDA will release their estimate at
noon in Washington on Jan. 12. Figures are in millions of 90-lb
boxes.
================================================================
Summary of Results: | Output
================================================================
Survey Avg | 45.7
Survey Range | 40-52
USDA Dec. Estimate | 46.0
USDA 2016-17 Crop | 68.75
Analyst Estimates: |
Price Futures Group | 45.0
Optionsellers.com | 52.0
Infinity Trading | 40.0
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Kristy Scheuble
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and higher in London yesterday. Ideas of big production potential for Brazil, Honduras, and Vietnam are around and are the major topics of conversation. News that the ICO increased its supply estimates for this year seemed to confirm those ideas and created the selling interest in New York. The cash market seemed mostly quiet due to the recent price weakness, but traders say that a lot of Coffee is being sold and moved out of Honduras. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell, but farmers are holding back and hoping for stronger prices leading into the Tet holiday. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London. There is plenty of rain in some areas of Brazil this week, and producers in much of Minas Gerais expect good crops There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices, but Honduras has production and has been selling as much as possible, and ideas of bigger crops this year in Honduras and Vietnam are offsetting reports of smaller crops in the rest of Central America and Colombia.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.998 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get light showers each day. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 131.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 March, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1770 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London again yesterday even with higher petroleum prices and a weaker US Dollar. Speculators were the best sellers on ideas that the upside potential in prices was limited and that supplies of Sugar into the world market are ample.Production surplus estimates for the year range from about 4.0 million tons to above 10.4 million tons. However, no one is pressing the down side very much even with estimates of a big Sugar production surplus for this year. Much of the support has come from the recent rally in energy prices. The Crude Oil market is firm and could help keep sugar prices high if more cane gets diverted into ethanol production. Price action until now has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Even so, Brazil is importing a lot of ethanol right now. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong and look to stay strong for a while.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature light showers each day. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1390 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1520, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 385.00, 382.00, and 367.00 March, and resistance is at 395.00, 397.00, and 401.00 March.

DJ World Sugar Prices Slumped in 2017, ISO Says — Market Talk
1652 GMT – World sugar market prices ended the year 25% lower than the level seen at the beginning of 2017, the International Sugar Organization says in its December market report. Behind that price slump was “expectations for the world surplus in 2017/18 after two consecutive seasons of global statistical deficit,” the ISO adds. As for raw sugar, the average price seen in 2017 was 16.02 U.S. cents per pound, down from 18.06 U.S. cents per pound the previous year. Sugar is down 0.5% at 14.66 U.S. cents a pound. (david.hodari@wsj.com; @davidhodari)

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and near the top end of the recent trading range. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London had the strongest performance yesterday and could also be in the process of completing a bottom. The charts imply that a sharp move higher is possible in the next few days. The West African main harvest has started to wind down and focus is shifting to the next round of grind data and the weather for the West African midcrop. There were some reports of gunfire between rival army factions in Ivory Coast yesterday, with the main violence in the city of Bouake. The city is in the Cocoa belt and is the second biggest city in the region. Ideas are that Cocoa demand from grinders can be strong this quarter due to the weaker prices. The market is also on alert for the Harmattan winds that can suck moisture from the soil and trees and really hurt bean quality and production. These winds have not developed as of yet, but could at any time. Arrivals in West Africa remain behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.588 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1850 March, with resistance at 1950, 2000, and 2030 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1370, 1330, and 1320 March, with resistance at 1450, 1460, and 1500 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322