About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher again on some follow through buying. Volumes traded were moderate. Trends are turning sideways in front of the USDA reports that will be released on Friday. Price Group expects few changes to US production estimates as the Cotton production appears to have held well. USDA can show increased export demand and slightly smaller ending stocks, although overall supplies should still be big. However, the hurricanes and the freeze appear to have really damaged quality and the quality losses have forced mills and exporters to pay up for better quality Cotton. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Prices can remain generally strong even if a short-term top has been found. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get chances for precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday, than below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 75.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,942 bales, from 47,665 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7780, 7720, and 7700 March, with resistance of 7940, 7960, and 8000 March.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jan 9 2018 12:15:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Jan. 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
================================================================
|——Survey Results——–|USDA
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Dec. | 2016-17
================================================================
US Production | 21.36| 20.80| 21.60| 21.44| 17.17
US Exports | 15.11| 14.50| 15.75| 14.80| 14.92
US End Stocks | 5.51| 4.91| 6.06| 5.80| 2.75
World | | | | |
Production | 118.90| 116.00| 120.20| 119.96| 106.56
World | | | | |
Consumption | 119.51| 118.60| 120.00| 119.59| 114.77
World End | | | | |
Stocks | 87.29| 86.00| 88.50| 88.00| 87.65
================================================================================
Analyst |————U.S.————|——World—-
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
================================================================================
Cottonexperts.com | 21.60| 15.60| 5.00| 116.00| 120.00| 86.00
Doane | 21.50| 15.70| 5.00| 118.50| 120.00| 86.00
Love Consulting | 21.51| 15.00| 5.92| 120.20| 119.75| 88.20
Price Futures Group| 20.80| 15.00| 5.50| n/a | n/a | n/a
Rabobank | 21.10| 14.50| 5.80| 119.00| 119.50| 87.10
Rose Consulting | 21.56| 14.80| 6.06| 119.88| 119.50| 88.05
Varner Bros. | 21.50| 15.75| 4.91| 119.20| 118.60| 87.20
Wedbush Securities | 21.30| 14.50| 5.90| 119.50| 119.25| 88.50
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Kristy Scheuble
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower and remains in a trading range as the market prepares for the next round of USDA production reports. The current weather is good as temperatures are warm and there is little rain around, but the crop is small anyway, and the charts still show that a potential short-term bottom has formed. USDA could curt its production estimates a little bit again on Friday. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no January deliveries have been posted yet.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 131.00 March, with resistance at 140.00, 141.00, and 145.00 March.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jan 9 2018 12:20:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of three analysts about the 2017-18
Florida orange crop. The USDA will release their estimate at
noon in Washington on Jan. 12. Figures are in millions of 90-lb
boxes.
================================================================
Summary of Results: | Output
================================================================
Survey Avg | 45.7
Survey Range | 40-52
USDA Dec. Estimate | 46.0
USDA 2016-17 Crop | 68.75
Analyst Estimates: |
Price Futures Group | 45.0
Optionsellers.com | 52.0
Infinity Trading | 40.0
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Kristy Scheuble
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were little changed in New York and higher in London yesterday. Ideas of big production potential for Brazil, Honduras, and Vietnam are around and are the major topics of conversation. However, the daily charts are showing that trends are sideways for now. The cash market seemed mostly quiet due to the recent price weakness. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil along with ideas of big Honduran offers provided the best reasons to sell, but reduced exports from Brazil and less offer from Vietnam provide a good reason to buy. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell, but farmers are holding back and hoping for stronger prices leading into the Tet holiday. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, and were higher last week. Producers are not offering and hope for higher prices with the approach of the Tet holiday nest month. There is plenty of rain in some areas of Brazil this week, and producers in much of Minas Gerais expect good crops There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices, but Honduras has production and has been selling as much as possible, and ideas of bigger crops this year in Honduras and Vietnam are offsetting reports of smaller crops in the rest of Central America and Colombia.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.997 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 131.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1620 March, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1760 March.

DJ ICO Price Metric Falls Again in December on Robusta Drop
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price fell for the fourth consecutive month during December, with prices down by an average of 2.8% in a month of falling prices.
The ICO composite indicator dropped to 114 U.S. cents a pound from 117.26 U.S. cents in November, taking the metric to its lowest level since February 2016.
“Prices for all groups of coffee fell over the course of the month, though the steepest decline occurred in Robusta prices,” the report said.
“Exports in November 2017 were 9.2% lower than the same month last year,” it said, with premium-grade arabica shipments down 5.5% and robusta shipments down 15.9% on year.
Among arabica types, Colombian Mild prices were down 1.7%. Other Milds were down 2.5%, and Brazilian Naturals prices were down 2.3%.
Robusta fell more sharply, dropping 4.1% in December. The arbitrage between the low-grade bean and its higher-quality peer fell 3.2% after decreasing in November, the report said.
Exports for the first two months of the new coffee season were 11.3% lower year-on-year, while production for the season is estimated to rise by 0.7% from last season, the report said.
While Brazilian and Colombian production is forecast to fall, that may be outweighed by rises in Honduran and Vietnamese production, the ICO added.
London-traded robusta was last flat at $1,744.00 a ton, while arabica was down 0.32% at $1.25 a pound.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London to start the new week. Speculators were the best sellers on ideas that the upside potential in prices was limited. However, no one is pressing the down side very much even with estimates of a big Sugar production surplus for this year. Much of the support has comes from the recent rally in energy prices. The Crude Oil market is firm and could help keep sugar prices high if more cane gets diverted into ethanol production. Price action until now has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1390 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1520, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 382.00, 367.00, and 365.00 March, and resistance is at 395.00, 397.00, and 401.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London is in a range for now and had the strongest performance yesterday. The West African main harvest has started to wind down and focus is shifting to the next round of grind data and the weather for the West African midcrop. Ideas are that Cocoa demand from grinders can be strong this quarter due to the weaker prices. The market is also on alert for the Harmattan winds that can suck moisture from the soil and trees and really hurt bean quality and production. These winds have not developed as of yet, but could at any time. Arrivals in West Africa remain behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.565 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1840 March, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1390, 1450, and 1460 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322