Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher after an early rally attempt found some long liquidation. Trends are turning sideways in front of the USDA reports that will be released on Friday. Price Group expects few changes to US production estimates as the Cotton production appears to have held well. USDA can show increased export demand and slightly smaller ending stocks, although overall supplies should still be big. However, the hurricanes and the freeze appear to have really damaged quality and the quality losses have forced mills and exporters to pay up for better quality Cotton. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Prices can remain generally strong even if a short-term top has been found. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get chances for precipitation starting about Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday than below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 75.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,665 bales, from 47,665 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7720, 7700, and 7670 March, with resistance of 7940, 7960, and 8000 March.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and held support areas on the charts. The current weather is good, but the crop is small anyway, and the charts show that a potential short term bottom has formed. USDA could curt its production estimates a Little bit again on Friday. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry conditions, but with cooler temperatures that could help acid formation. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no January deliveries have been posted yet.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 144.00 and 151.00 March. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 132.00 March, with resistance at 141.00, 145.00, and 148.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower again as the US Dollar moved higher against most other world currencies. Ideas of big production potential for Brazil, Honduras, and Vietnam kept the trade bearish. The cash market seemed mostly quiet due to the price weakness. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell, but reduced exports from Brazil provide a good reason to buy. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, and were higher last week. Producers are not offering and hope for higher prices with the approach of the Tet holiday nest month. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, and some are talking about reduced rains this year in Espírito Santo and parts of Minas Gerais that could hurt production. There is plenty of rain in some areas this week, and producers in much of Minas Gerais expect good crops There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some áreas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices, but Honduras has production and has been selling as much as possible..
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.992 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day, with best amounts and coverage in the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 131.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 March, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1760 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London to start the new week. Speculators were the best sellers on ideas that the upside potential in prices was limited. Futures have held resistance areas and tired speculators are now liquidating. It is possible that a correction to lower prices is coming, but the market could remain rather strong even if a correction does appear. The Crude Oil market is firm and could help keep sugar prices high if more cane gets diverted into ethanol production. Price action until now has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day, with best amounts and coverage over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1460, 1420, and 1390 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1520, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 385.00, 382.00, and 367.00 March, and resistance is at 395.00, 397.00, and 401.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in both New York and London. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London still displays a weaker chart pattern, but did not extend losses yesterday or for the past few days. A stronger US Dollar was negative, but the West African main harvest will start to wind down soon. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.546 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1840 March, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1390, 1450, and 1460 March.
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